As Rondo Goes, So Goes The Celtics

The title of this post I am not thrilled with, because it is overused, but there is really no other way to say it... Rondo is the key to the Celtics. He is their MVP, he is their future, and right now he is letting his team down.

In the beginning of the year there were thoughts that Rondo was the best PG in the league. I am not sure if I ever agreed with that statement, which has been thrown around this site a lot, but I certainly was willing to have him in the conversation. Last night proved he is not, and that he isn't even in the same breathe as someone like Rose. Before you go all crazy on me, let's go inside the stats.

As of today, Rondo has his lowest points per game since his rookie season.

2007: 6.4
2008: 10.6
2009: 11.9
2010: 13.7
2011: 10.5

I know with Rondo it isn't about points, but his lack of scoring and confidence is affecting the rest of the team. We have seen it as the season has progressed. He did go through a slump, and I know he was beat up, but that doesn't tell the whole story. The fact is that word is out on him that the only time he is affective, as a scorer, is when he can get to the hoop. This has led to two results.

Teams cave their defense in knowing that he doesn't have confidence in his jumper, and even if he does shoot his FG% has fallen to it lowest total since his rookie year.

2007: .418
2008: .492
2009: .505
2010: .508
2011: .474

So, it's not like he is just shooting less and getting more people involved, he has just regressed.

The 2nd result is that even if he does go to the hoop the other team will just foul him. This has caused Rondo to shut down this part of his game, because he can't hit free throws, which also his lowest since his rookie year.

2007: .647
2008: .611
2009: .642
2010: .621
2011: .548

Shooting 55% from the line when you are a guard is unacceptable.

Rondo's assist are up by almost 1.5 a game from last year, but I don't see that as a great sign. The bottom line is that Rondo has to take control. When this team is great, it's when Rondo is aggressive and goes to the hole. Yes, he struggles from the line, but going to the line less doesn't help that. Plus, even if the other team has to foul him that gets the other team in foul trouble, which is obviously a positive within itself. It certainly would've helped to at least make Rose work last night on defense, or get him a couple fouls.

On top of all of that when Rondo goes to the hoop it sets up the rest of the offense. Ray Allen becomes open for 3's, people have to sag off Pierce a little bit, KG becomes a force and gets those open jumpers, and so on.

Yes, the Celtics need Shaq to come back, but above that they need Rondo to get his head right, find his confidence, and lead this team. Like I said he is the MVP (of the Celtics), the gear that makes it all work, and although we can go on and on about the loss of Perk, the real story is the loss of Rondo's all around game. He finds it again, the Celtics will be in the Finals.

Am I The Only One Who Thinks Jenks Is Going To Suck?

It's a rainy day in Boston, and there is some hateraid in my blood.

Let me start this by saying this has nothing to do with the whole Guillen/Jenks battle. I think that whole thing is childish, and is two assholes who can't keep their mouths shut. Thus, I couldn't care less about it. But let's go over some facts of things that DO matter. Here is Jenks stats over the past 4 seasons...

2007: 40 saves, 2.77 ERA, and a .198 opponent batting average.
2008: 30 saves, 2.63 ERA, and a .230 opponent batting average.
2009: 29 saves, 3.71 ERA, and a .250 opponent batting average.
2010: 27 saves, 4.44 ERA, and a .260 opponent batting average.

Seeing a trend yet?

I am not against the signing. He gives the Red Sox flexibility, and the Red Sox needed more arms then just Papelbon and Bard, but for anyone to really think this guy is going to come in and dominate, I think you're living in a fantasy world. Maybe I am wrong, and changing teams and roles will help revive his career, but I am not sure how much I am really buy into that.

Call me a hater, but looking at those stats I feel there is a lot to back me up.

Hope For Josh Beckett?

A lot has been made of Josh Beckett struggles so far this year (along with most of the team), and in no way am I defending them, but here is an interesting stat from our friends at Boston.com...

Josh Beckett after five starts last season:

2-2, 7.22 ERA, 28.2 IP, 36 H, 24 R, 23 ER, 16 BB, 31 K, .303 OBA

Josh Beckett after five starts this season:

1-0, 7.22 ERA, 28.2 IP, 37 H, 24 R, 23 ERR, 13 BB, 20 K, .316 OBA

Creepy right? I mean almost exact. The good news is that Beckett was in the running for a Cy Young before the last couple weeks of the season. The bad would obviously be how it ended, but the hope here is that he will turn it around here, and that he is just anther guy who has early season struggles.

Here Is An Amazing Stat

Who do you think leads the NFL in receptions? Steve Smith?....Nope. Larry Fitzgerald? Nope...

No that honor goes to Wes Welker. Sure it isn't that incredible after an excellent 2007 and 2008 seasons, but when you add in the fact that he has missed two games you have to be impressed...

"After his 10-catch, 107-yard, one-touchdown performance yesterday in London, Welker leads the NFL with 46 catches despite missing two games. His 96.8 yards per game is also best in the league (Boston.com)."

If you are wondering why the Patriots offense is hitting on my cylinders right now you can look to two things.....A weak schedule, and Wes Welker.

Here Is An Interest Stat

Boston.com came up with this interesting tidbit of information...

There are two players who rank in the top five in home runs and RBI in the American League since May 20. Mark Teixeira is one. Who is the other?

Home runs
1. Carlos Pena, 24
2. David Ortiz, 22
3. Russell Branyan, 21
4t. Mark Teixeira, 20
4t. Nelson Cruz, 20

RBI
1. Bobby Abreu, 68
2. Mark Teixeira, 65
3. Justin Morneau, 63
4. David Ortiz, 62
5t. Joe Mauer, 60
5t. Juan Rivera, 60

His batting average might not be great, but he has been hitting the cover off the ball...

Varitek Has To Catch Beckett

I don't like Varitek. I am not at the same level of hatred as DP on him, but I don't like him, and I don't think he is good. Still....after reading into some stats it is hard to ignore that Beckett needs Varitek on the field.

Beckett is 14-2 with a 2.52 ERA when Varitek is his catcher. When someone else catches him, Beckett is 0-2 with an 11.25 ERA. The Boston Herald went in even deeper and looked at each game that Beckett has played without Tek behind the plate.

April 30: Rays 13, Red Sox 0

With George Kottaras catching, Beckett allows 10 hits and seven runs in 4.2 innings.

June 14: Phillies 11, Red Sox 6

With a day game following a brutally long night game, Varitek gets a day off in favor of Kottaras. Beckett allows seven runs (6 earned) in six innings and takes the loss.

Aug. 18: Red Sox 10, Blue Jays 9

Beckett admitted he had nothing last night and the Jays teed off on him for three home runs and the seven runs.

For those keeping track, that’s 16 IP and 30 hits allowed, including five home runs. In 146.1 innings with Varitek, Beckett has allowed just 10 homers.

Some pitchers are really a creature of habit. I don't think this speaks ill of V-Mart's catching ability, but when you are in a middle of a season and in a groove you should ride what is working. What is working is Tek catching Beckett. Maybe he can just be his catcher like Mirabelli was for the Wake...

Could This Be Why The Bruins Don't Want Kessel?

Fluto Shinzawa of the Boston Globe wrote a great article today breaking down Kessel's production for the Bruins. The way he did it was by looking up who Kessel scored his goals against, then broke down the percentage against "playoff teams". Here is how Kessel did...

1. Loui Eriksson, 63.9 percent
2. Dany Heatley, 61.5
3. Patrick Marleau, 55.3
4. Rick Nash, 55
5. Zach Parise, 51.1
6. Thomas Vanek, 50
7. Ilya Kovalchuk, 48.9
8. Mike Cammalleri, 48.7
9. Marian Hossa, 47.5
10. Alex Ovechkin, 42.9
11. Jeff Carter, 39.1
12. Eric Staal, 37.5
13. Kessel, 19.4

There is a huge drop off from 12 to 13. So when Kessel is asking for $5 million a year the Bruins can use this stat against him. This also could explain why the market for Kessel is so down. He is not a great two way player (meaning playing defense along with offense), and the Bruins just don't have a high feeling of value for Kessel.

Still, I want Kessel back, but I found this information very interesting and at least now I can understand Boston's thinking on the value of Kessel.

Periodic Unknown Animal

Every so often I like to search the internet with my massive amounts of free time and find hidden gems in the sports world. I do this not only for the pleasure of discovering treasure, but also to educate myself and give these players the credit they deserved but never received.
Now that you've heard my intro, I unveil one of my favorite baseball players of all time (yes, I do own his rookie card in a hard plastic case) and a player I guarantee most people have never heard of...

UNKNOWN ANIMAL #1: Turner Ward



Turner Max Ward
Born: April 11th, 1965
Selected by New York Yankees in 18th Round (470th overall) of 1986 amateur entry draft
College: University of South Alabama
Height: 6-2 Weight: 204 Bats: Both Throws: Right

Impressive stats:
-Was both a pitcher and an OF in the minors 1990-1992 (Cleveland/Toronto)
-In 1990 (CLEV AAA) Ward pitched 43 games 63 Innings posting a 2.00 ERA 56 SOs 9 Saves 4-3 WL and a 1.19 WHIP
*Also in 1990 at the same time he was pitching for CLEV AAA, Ward batted in 133 Games with a .299 Avg in 495 ABs including 65 RBIs, 22 SBs, 70 BBs, 89Rs and 6 HRs.

If that 1990 season is not one of the most impressive minor league performances in history than thats silly.

-Ward played in only 80 MLB games until 1993 when he was given a chance with the Blue Jays in 72 games...he batted only .192
-The Brewers gave him another shot, in 1994 through 102 games he only batted .232, 1995-44 games batted .264, 1996-43 games batted .179
-He was cut by the Brewers and picked up by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 1997 now at the age of 32...playing CF and RF for the Pirates, 1997 in 71 games Ward batted .353 avg (that earned him an $825,000 contract) but in 1998 Ward batted .262 in 123 games and it was back downhill
-Turner bounced around between Arizona and Pittsburgh before ending his career at age 36 with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2001

-Other notes:
*Through 510 MLB OF appearances, Ward finished with a .987 Fielding % (only 12 Career Errors)
*In 3 Postseason games (1999 all with ARI vs. NYM), Ward was 1-2 batting including a 3 RBI walk off HR, 1 walk and 2 runs. (Age 34 at the time)
*Career MLB .251 avg, MINORS .287



SB POST