Time for Celtics to put the hammer on New York

If the Celtics want to give themselves a shot at recreating the magic of last spring, they’ll man up and knock the Knicks out tonight.

Beyond sending a message to the Knicks and the rest of the league, the Celtics need to come out and remind themselves how much better they are than New York and regain the swagger they’ve lost since “the deal.”

I have nothing to complain about and the Celtics shouldn’t be embarrassed over being up 2-0, despite some Knicks fans thinking that coming close in each game has put them up 2-0. After looking at film, I’m absolutely positive the Knicks won’t own the offensive boards again. Once the Celtics start actually boxing out and grabbing rebounds, the fast breaks will follow and the offense will be effective again.

With that in mind, it’s time for Rajon Rondo to start distributing the ball Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett while creating some continuity on offense. What’s happened to the great ball movement that used to be so common on this team? It’s inexcusable that the Celtics aren’t dropping 110+ points on this porous Knicks defense (one game with 9 blocks doesn’t change that). You can’t use the Kendrick Perkins excuse here. We all know the man had hands of granite.

Paul Pierce is right about the Celtic bench not playing well enough (I’m looking at you, Jeff Green). But shooting 6-16 for 18 points and 8-18 for 20 points over the opening two games is not enough for a volume scorer of Pierce’s stature. He should destroy Bill Walker and be going to the line 15 times. Also, I’m going to assume Doc has given Boston a simple message: Get the ball to Ray! Going 6-8 for 18 points and 9-15 for 24 points from the field won’t get it done either if you’re the greatest shooter of all time. It’s on every Celtic starter to ensure Ray takes 20+ shots tonight and Rondo doesn’t take end-of-clock three-pointers anymore.

Celtics 105, Knicks 93

Some Super Bowl perspective on Super Bowl XLV

The way the Packers won the Super Bowl XLV is how you draw it up, right? Pretty much every important player on the Packers except Charles Woodson and Ryan Pickett was drafted or acquired as an undrafted free agent. You really need to give Ted Thompson credit for shrewd drafting both in terms of starters and backups. Not since the 2003-2004 Patriots has there been such a deep team that is so good at filling in for injured starters. Oh yeah, and he saw that he hit the goldmine in Aaron Rodgers (the same guy who completed 23 consecutive passes at one point in 2004 and yet was drafted 24th overall in 2005) and stood up to Mr. Wrangler.

In addition to being happy for a good team that stuck to their guns in the face of what’s-his-name, hopefully the Super Bowl gave me some perspective to some Patriots fans who were devastated by the Jets loss. I’m painfully aware that the Pats blew a golden chance to win a fourth Super Bowl with home field, but the playoffs are a crap shoot. All you can do is put yourself in the best position possible to win. In a quarterback league, the Pats had the MVP who had 36 touchdown passes and a defense that was playing better by the week in the second half of the season. It all meant nothing because the Jets were better than the Pats that day. Same thing goes for the Steelers, who were supposedly built for the playoffs and a championship.

It is REALLY hard to win Super Bowls in this era and after watching the events of last night, I appreciate the Pats winning three of four to an even greater degree. The year-to-year differences between teams so stark that winning consecutive titles seems less possible by the day.

This Packers defense, which held together despite losing its leader, isn’t much difference personnel-wise than the unit that gave up 51 points to the Cardinals in last year’s playoff game. Many fans compared these Steelers to the 2008 version that won the Super Bowl in dramatic fashion but are leaving out the fact that they went 9-7 last year. My point? While it’s a natural reaction to be disappointed when your team doesn’t win the big one, it’s damn-near impossible to cruise to a Super Bowl title anymore. So much luck is involved that you need to appreciate when your team succeeds and understand that parity is what drives the NFL. As I said yesterday, even when you’re NFL royalty like the Steelers, nothing is guaranteed.

A few other things:

* I would like to talk to those analysts who tried to make the point that if Ben Roethlisberger won, his 3-0 Super Bowl record would be more impressive than Tom Brady’s 3-1 mark. Just as I questioned why Joe Montana’s 4-0 record is so hallowed, I don’t understand this logic at all. Are they trying to say it’s better to lose in conference championship game than the Super Bowl? Isn’t the point to give your team a chance at the title? Someone please help me here.

* Does anyone else find it disturbing that there is such a disparity between the respective NFL and MLB Halls of Fame? How is it that Cooperstown has become the Hall of Very Good by allowing Phil Rizzuto and Bert Blyleven into its doors while Chris Carter and Curtis Martin can’t make it to Canton? Look, I understand that baseball has been around much longer and there’s a different voting system because of different value placed on players. But there is still something wrong with both voting processes. Let’s use Bill Simmons’ pantheon levels for all sports and be done with it.

* You proved me right in one sense, Rashard Mendenhall. Your fumble helped seal the game for the Packers and made it clear that he can’t be counted on as an elite running back consistently in the playoffs.

Pat O's Super Bowl XLV preview

OK. I admit it. I flip-flopped about this Packers-Steelers Super Bowl in a way that would make Glenn Ordway proud this week.

Up until Wednesday, I thought there was no way the Steelers lose Super Bowl XLV. Perhaps it’s their recent legacy that led me to that conclusion. Similar to how many people had visions of Tom Brady’s previous February heroics going into the Giants-Patriots Super Bowl in 2007 (beyond the 18-0 record), I just kept thinking about how the Steelers are the team with the hardware of late.

The problem with that logic, as I’ve learned as a Pats fan who’s been punched in face repeatedly since 2005, is that the Steelers winning two Super Bowls since 2005 has nothing to do with what happens tonight. After giving it more thought, I like the Packers more and more in this game for a few, somewhat obvious, reasons:

* Even with Maurkice Pouncey in there, the Steelers were going to have problems with Cullen Jenkins and B.J. Raji. Pouncey’s injury makes things even tougher for the Steelers’ line.

* This has been said over and over, but the Packers’ ability to spread opponents out like the Patriots did to the Steelers this year bodes well for them. I’m not saying it translates to Aaron Rodgers throwing for 400 yards, but it will certainly make their unimpressive running game less of a factor.

* As great as Ben Roethlisberger is when outside of the pocket, he does have the propensity to fumble with 28 over the past three years. I’d be shocked if the Packers don’t send Charles Woodson (7 sacks the past three years) on a corner blitz at least once or twice. If you’re wondering why I said earlier that past performance has no bearing on today’s game, yet I’m referencing stats from three years ago, it’s because individual trends are the ones to keep an eye on.

Key to the game: Rashard Mendenhall. If he runs hard between tackles like he did against the Jets, I don't see the Steelers losing this game. The problem is that he hasn't shown great consistency against the top defenses. How he plays will help determine how long Rodgers is on the field for and how the Packer secondary approaches coverage for Mike Wallace.

The Packers and Steelers are evenly matched in terms of coaching and key injuries. The Steelers are missing Pouncey and Aaron Smith while the Packers are missing (among others) Jermichael Finley and Ryan Grant. Warren Sapp made the point on Inside the NFL yesterday that we haven’t seen a bad Super Bowl in a long time. For once, I agreed with that overrated dumpster. That trend will continue this year and it’ll be a great game.

Even though I suck at predictions, I’m going with Green Bay 31-28. Rodgers pulls a Roethlisberger and drives down the field for a game-winning touchdown late. I look forward to Pearce losing something for once.

Pat O's reaction to Randy Moss trade

It’s time to say bye to Randy Moss after an exciting (if uneven) tenure in New England. There were no Super Bowl victories in his time here but for those of you that think this is OK, I’d like to knock the Kool-Aid cup right out of your hand.

After all the good will harbored by Monday night’s 41-14 win over the Dolphins, I did expect some sort of karmic shift in Boston sports. I had a feeling Jermaine O’Neal’s pulled hammy wouldn’t suffice. But I wasn’t expecting the Patriots to trade Randy Moss to the Vikingsfor the third-round pick (though Mike Reiss thinks there could be more to the story). This simply isn’t enough compensation for what is still a top-five wide receiver. Yes, Brandon Tate has shown a lot of promise. But, no, he cannot come close to “putting the world on his shoulders” the way Moss has since 2007.

I get the whole Patriot “value system” and how they’re stockpiling picks but please spare any discussion that portrays the Patriot offense as evolving and how this trade frees it up. I’ve heard some people say that this way, the Patriots can return to 2001-2006 form and evenly distribute the ball. I have a few problems with this notion. First, the New England defense isn’t nearly as capable as those teams of putting points on the board. Next, the league has changed dramatically since then and you’re going to need Tom Brady to throw for 4000-4500 yards to win regular-season games. Lastly, BenJarvus Green-Ellis is a nice story but this puts undue pressure on him and the rest of the inexperienced (Danny Woodhead) or injured (Fred Taylor) running backs.

I said it myself in my Monday night preview: the Patriots needed to stop bombing it to Moss. However, I wasn’t trying to knock his value. He’s still a valuable possession receiver and can make sideline catches with the best of them. Don’t buy into any talk about him being old. He can still play is a weapon that this team would’ve needed come playoff time.

I understand that he’s reverted to the Randy of old this year and has probably been even more of an annoyance than we realize behind the scenes. But if the Patriots have any sort of genuine interest in taking advantage of Brady’s prime and winning a Super Bowl, this move makes no sense to me. If I’m Brady, I see the window closing fast and dealing your top receiver doesn’t help things.

As Tim Graham said, there is some bizarre going on here. I guess we’ll have to wait to see what’s going on in Coach Bill’s mind.

NBA Finals Game 7 Preview

Tonight's Game 7 between the Celtics and Lakers is the second-biggest Game 7 of my life and if you're in your 20s, I'm sure you feel the same way. Game 7 of the 2004 Red Sox-Yankees ALCS was a defining moment but beyond that, I don't remember this much drama revolving around the other Game 7's we've witnessed of late. Here were my thoughts going into each of these recent Game 7s.

-Game 7 of the 2007 ALCS between the Sox and Indians. That fraud Indians team was dead in the water at that point and no one really thought the Sox would lose Game 7 at Fenway.

-Game 7 of the Hawks-Celtics series in 2008. Same story but even worse for the Hawks as they quit after the opening tip.

-Game 7 of the Cavs-Celtics in 2008. This was graduation night at URI for me and instead of hanging out with my family at the party they threw for me, I watched what ended up being a great game. There was a lot on the line in this game but it was nothing close to tonight.

-Game 7 of the Sox-Rays in 2008. Coming off two titles in 4 years, the Sox' best pitcher (Beckett) and power hitter (Ortiz) hurting combined with a young core that will be back in 2009, I know my heart wasn't pumping at 9 a.m. that morning like it did today.

-Game 7 of the Bulls-Celtics in 2009. We knew the Celtics weren't in position to make a deep playoff run without Kevin Garnett but we also hated Joakim Noah so it wasn't meaningless, either.

-Game 7 of the Magic-Celtics . The Celtics had a 3-2 lead but a series win was gravy with Garnett hurt. Eff you, Hedo Turkoglu.

This isn't the first time we're preparing for a do-or-die game but the circumstances surrounding it and the effects of the outcome weigh heavier than anything since '04. The Celtics players are certainly aware of the fact that the Pistons of the 1980s are held in much higher regard than the Washington Bullets in 1978 or the 1983 76ers. Being able to win multiple titles with the same group is special and that's what Boston has on the line tonight: being compared to the Pistons from 2004 or the Celtics from the mid-1970s.

It's hard to believe this will be the last run for the Celtics team that Danny Ainge constructed during the summer of 2007 but that was the deal with the devil that he brokered. There was only a 3-year window. Times up. The Celtics will make one last stand and win this game. I can assure you of that.

Nostalgia aside, this game will come down to how well the Celtics pass the ball and improve their shooting. I don't feel as though the Lakers were play a great brand of defense that was limiting the Celtics. Game 6 was lost due to Celtics missed shots that created fast-break points for the Lakers. Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett will all be immense tonight. Pierce drops 30 points and will be MVP.

NBA Finals Game 6 Preview

The Celtics are in the same position that they were in 2 years ago with a 3-2 series lead. The difference is that it took those 5 games for the starters to play in unison. With Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett leading the way, Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen stepped up to finally get the Celtics a win away from Banner 18.

When the Celtics have Pierce shooting elbow jumpers and KG active in the post, they are tough to beat. Look for Rondo to turn the ball over less and to create more in the paint.

I'm extremely interested to see Kobe Bryant's demeanor tonight. He's almost in a no-win position in that if he shoots too much, the Lakers aren't doing enough around him and if he defers too often, it's 2006 Phoenix Game 7 all over again. He can't shoot the ball much better than the other night and the Celtics have made it clear that they will not allow him into the paint. That combined with the thought that it's hard to imagine Ron Artest or Lamar "I'm Sick!" Odom suddenly producing against the Boston defense makes this Laker offense easy to figure out for the Celtics.

The key tonight will be Kendrick Perkins continuing to play straight-up defense on Pau Gasol. Without Gasol's inside scoring (drawing fouls) and rebounding, Los Angeles is one-dimensional.

I also expect the bench to provide more support tonight for the Celtics than Game 5. Glen Davis will have a big impact on tonight's game.

The Celtics will win their 18th championship tonight because the Lakers have given us no reason to side with them over the past 2 games. Celtics 95-Lakers 90.

Celtics-Lakers Game 4 Preview

There are a few reasons for Celtics fans to be weary of tonight's game. For starters, Kobe Bryant has yet to have a deadly shooting night (although much of that has to do with the Celtic defense). Next, the Lakers aren't getting any shorter and shot-blocking will continue to be an issue. The black hole that is Kedrick Perkins' offensive game, which was pointed out by the great Peter May today, is something that the Celtics will have to deal with as well.

With those factors in mind, I can't see this team losing tonight. This isn't even me being a homer because I think the remainder of the series is still in serious jeopardy. However, losing tonight would give the Lakers a 3-1 advantage and pave the road for a quick exit from the 2010 Finals for Boston. After watching the past month of basketball from this team, I hardly see them going out with a whimper.

My reasoning? Right here:

-Paul Pierce hasn't lost the art of the jump shot overnight. His shooting will be back tonight.

-Despite falling into a 17-point hole and never fully recovering from it, I really thought the Celtics played great defense in Game 3. It was a matter of offensive ineptitude rather than lack of defense. I assure you that more shots will fall tonight.

-Kevin Garnett's resurgence will carry over to Game 4.Cedric Maxwell was right about the fact that KG's recent problems have revolved around his head, not any sort of injury. Now that he know he has the ability to take Pau Gasol to the hole at will, it opens a lot up for this Celtic offense.

-Rajon Rondo is pissed about Derek Fisher did in the fourth quarter in Game 3, even if he wasn't directly involved in all of Fisher's scoring. Rondo should and will take issue with a 35-year-old point guard dominating his team in the most crucial moments of a Finals game. There won't be a second half disappearing act from Rondo this time.

-The Celtic bench was good (Glen Davis with 12 points) but can be so much better if Rasheed Wallace can integrate himself into the game without picking up quick fouls.

I have no clue how the rest of this series will play out but I know this team will not lay down tonight. Celtics 100 -- Lakers 92.

The Importance Of Game 2 For The Celtics

In the back of your mind, you have to wonder if the Celtics are going to revert back to the team that went 27-27 during the last 54 games of the regular season or will continue showing the impressive determination that they've displayed since the opening tip of round 1.

I think we'll get our answer tonight. If the Celtics come out firing on both sides of the ball again and go up 2-0, we'll obviously know this team has truly reached back to 2008 and is a legitimate threat to the Lakers in the Finals. If they drop a stink-bomb a la game 3 of the Cavs series, it's by no means the end of the world and they will still have home court for the rest of the series. However, it would show us that they're still lacking that consistent killer instinct.

Beyond the impact of tonight's game, I think this will be close.

The key offensive player for the Magic will play better. No, not Dwight Howard or Vince Carter. Rashard Lewis is the one who sparks this team and he will start hitting shots tonight. On the other side of the ball, Ray Allen probably won't be dropping 25 again tonight.


Even if those two aspects of game 1 even out, if this game is close, it won't matter. The Celtics have two things the Magic don't have:

1. A go-to guy in the waning minutes of a game, Paul Pierce. And don't even try to tell me Vince Carter is that guy. Since he's been in the league, he's proven time after time that's he's not.

2. The ability to lock-down defense around the arc. The Magic won't be getting any open 3's to decide a game like the Celtics gave them last year. A healthy KG and Rasheed Wallace make that difference because it lets the other Celtic players run out to those Magic shooters.

I don't see why people think that Dwight Howard will play all that much better in game 2. Is he going to learn some post moves in the span of two days? Or how to shoot a 5-foot jumper? I'm going to go out on a limb and say no.

Based on the past 4 games, I see no reason to predict a Celtic loss. This will come down to free throws again and the Celtics on top 95-90.

Less Lebron, more of the 2008 Champs

Wow. Out of all the scenarios that I envisioned for this Celtics-Cavaliers series, the Celtics having a 3-2 advantage coming home with Lebron James' manhood being called into question was not one of them.

I've heard everything from Lebron's quitting on his team in a scheme to be NY-bound to he was taking painkillers for his elbow and was high for Game 5. Seriously. Someone said that.

It's human nature to inquire what was wrong with Lebron on Tuesday night but I'm not going too deep here — he had a bad game and was pissed his teammates couldn't hit shots to make it seem like he was being a distributor that evening.

People who say "Jordan, Magic or Bird wouldn’t have done this" don’t know what they’re talking about. J.A. Adande put it perfectly in his column. We don’t remember Magic’s 1984 Finals disappearing act because of his five rings or Jordan's poor shooting in game 3 of the 1993 Eastern Conference Finals for a reason. They came back and redeemed themselves. My point here is that Game 5 will not define Lebron.

Lebron's Game 5 will not impact his Game 6. He will come out with everything he has and do everything that he can to make us forget the first 5 games of this series.
The only problem for the Cavs is that this guarantees absolutely nothing for them.

Even his best efforts will be in vain if his teammates respond. Lebron hasn't shown us the ability to close out a tough series on his own yet (if you recall, Daniel Gibson ended the Pistons’ season in 2007, not Lebron).

Can he score 55 points against this Celtics defense and demoralize this team? It's certainly possible but how much would it mean if he’s shooting 45 times? His teammates haven’t shown the ability to hit open shots, either, and I don't think they'll start tonight.

This is where we give the Celtics some due credit: Not only have their starters outplayed the Cleveland top five (Pierce-Lebron aside), but we can all see how badly the Boston bench is abusing the Cavs.

I think this will continue tonight:

Kevin Garnett has done his best Curt Schilling impression and turned in a great performance this series without much left in the tank. Why would he stop being able to shoot over Antawn Jamison every time? (side note: This has to be the most disappointing result to a midseason acquisition since…the Mavs grabbed Caron Butler for a bag of balls!)

Rajon Rondo will either A. run circles around whomever the Cavs put on him, whether it be Mo Williams or Anthony Parker or B. help create a mismatch on Pierce if they stupidly decide to throw Lebron on him.

Ray Allen has been the real star of this series and neither Delonte West nor Parker are going to interrupt his shooting.

Kendrick Perkins and Shaq will even out tonight. I'm telling you. Perk will be ready.

It took me until now to mention the captain, Paul Pierce. He hasn't come close to being the player we know he can be. Look for the crowd to get him going early. The jump shots will be falling tonight, finally.

To conclude, this game will be more about what the Celtics are than what Lebron is or isn't. Our three Hall of Famers and the best point guard in the league will take care of business tonight: 101-92.

Some random thoughts on a Tuesday afternoon

-I don’t care if Dwight Freeney is "50/50." A speed/edge rusher like him relies on that ankle and he won’t be bulldozing the Saints offensive line even if he decides to play.

- My friend Josh put the Saints game plan well today, saying the Saints need to force the Colts to rely on Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon. They are good but if this game turns into a shootout (which we all know it will), the Saints’ attack is simply better. Peyton Manning is great but the Saints are deeper and better equipped for a back and forth game.

-Pretty interesting to hear Mike Reiss say that Bill Parcells finally showed some regret in leaving the Pats. You could make the argument he was a disappointment with the Jets and Cowboys, aside from making it to the 1998 AFC title game against the Broncos.

-At some point, Doc Rivers needs to take some blame for the Celtic offense. Rajon Rondo has simply been dribbling too much and trying to create offense with 6 or 7 seconds remaining on the shot clock. Some of this has been due to poor shooting (Ray Allen and Rasheed Wallace specifically) but an offense that was stale a month ago has become inept due a lack of ingenuity.

-Not sure it could’ve been predicted that the Red Sox suddenly have the brightest future out of the Boston teams. The Patriots are facing their biggest offseason since 2000 and the Celtics are paying for their aging, albeit fantastic, title team of 2007-2008. I just feel like Boston sports are in a state of flux right now. I don’t like this at all.

-The Patriots need to go out and get a reliable, every-down tight end. This needs to happen for both blocking purposes and the fact that this offense certainly needs a wrinkle.

-After an 87-win season last year and Josh Johnson locked up, the Marlins are looking good going into the next few years. Check out their top 10 prospects. Combined with a new ballpark, they have an enviable future.

-Old news department: If Tony LaRussa brings Mark McGwire up for a PH appearance in September, will he need to be drug tested? At the very least I hope they check out his neck. Either way, I’m bringing this up because it’s a story that won’t be going away.

-Michael Vick thinks he can be a top-10 quarterback again? I’m sorry but when your career high in completion percentage is 56.4, you were never a top QB.

Has the Red Sox defense really improved?

The signing of Adrian Beltre (testicle jokes aside) has fans buzzing about the Red Sox defense and its ability (or inability) make up for the team’s obvious hitting woes. What I’m wondering is how sure are we that it will be good enough to make up for the lack of fire power? After some research, I believe the Sox are improved but not as much as you may think.

I’m no Sabermetrician but I do subscribe to the theory that defense should be quantified by more than fielding percentage. I love being able to watch a game and evaluate what’s going on without using solely statistics as a barometer.

Metrics such as Probabilistic Model of Range (PMR) don’t really do it for me because I don’t think it’s realistic to try to measure the difficulty of every play a fielder tries to make. There are just too many variables in play. While Mitchel Lichtman’s Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) from FanGraphs isn’t perfect, it’s probably the best tool for those of us caught between perceptions of how to rate defense.

The old-school thought process revolved around watching baseball and determining whether the play could have made a play on the ball, i.e. Bill James’ Range Factor. Statistics have evolved to the point where we know if the Giants’ right fielder was running toward a down-wind fart in the 8th inning of their July 18 game against the Padres. OK- maybe I’m exaggerating. Maybe I just wanted to make a fart joke.

If you want to browse through the explanation of UZR and the different contexts involved, take a look here. UZR provides some middle ground in that it offers us relevant statistics into whether the fielder was responsible for the ball hit toward them. The difference between this and something like PMR is that either the ball was in their “zone” or it wasn’t (albeit there are some flaws, such as not counting assists). PMR leaves too much subjectivity and too many variables.

These are obviously not new concepts (UZR came out in 2003) but I’ve just found it to be interesting to see how they pertain to the Sox, and specifically whether the new guys offer a substantial upgrade over Jason Bay, Mike Lowell and Alex Gonzalez.

I do like how UZR takes ballpark and pitchers’ tendencies into account but, here comes the old-school in me, I watched Jacoby Ellsbury play every day in 2009 and he is a good center fielder. Obviously, he’s not Willie Mays but I don’t agree his UZR rating of -18.6, which is the worst among center fielders in baseball. Sure, there were a few times where he took circuitous routes to the ball but I don’t feel as though there are many who can play much better in Fenway’s cavernous center field.

For the purposes of this discussion let’s take a look at the 2009 Red Sox vs. the newcomers’ UZR ratings.

The 2009 Red Sox by defensive position:

CF- Ellsbury -18.6 (last among CFs)
2B- Pedroia 9.8 (third)
*1B- Youkilis 5.7 (first)
C- Martinez N/A- There are no UZR ratings for catchers.
LF- Bay -13.0 (second-worst)
RF- Drew 10.5 (second)
3B- Lowell -11.1 (This would have been the worst had he qualified. Down from 10.4 in ’08. Yikes.)
SS- Gonzalez 6.7 (eighth)

*This was in 78 games at first. His UZR at third was -1.6. This could have been more concerning without the Beltre signing.

New to Fenway:
SS- Scutaro 0.9 (13th)
CF- Mike Cameron 10.0 (third)
3B- Beltre 14.3 (fourth)

At a glance, UZR indicates that Cameron (moving Ellsbury to LF) and Beltre are improvements over their predecessors and Scutaro is a downgrade from Gonzalez.

Once you take in all these statistics as well as the point that someone like Ellsbury is far better than his rating indicates, the Sox defense as a unit may not be that much different than last year. There are still four of the seven listed returning to a Sox defense that finished 16th in team UZR last year. Are Cameron, Beltre and Scutaro going to make enough of an impact to improve the defense to the point that it doesn’t matter the Sox can’t hit with RISP? I really don’t think so.

There is a clear upgrade in Beltre over Lowell. There’s no debating that point. Mike Cameron replacing Ellsbury is an improvement but I don’t believe he will field markedly better in Fenway Park. Ellsbury moving to left shouldn’t matter too much in the grand scheme of things because we all know left field in Fenway is a joke. Throw in the huge loss of Gonzalez’s defensive wizardry at short and this team has really only improved in one area total.

Take these stats with a grain of salt, obviously, but don’t completely buy into the fact that this team has gained the identity of defense-first.

Pat O's thoughts on Patriots-Saints

From 2001 up until this year, specifically previous the much-talked about and the much-debated Patriots-Colts game a few weeks ago, I always went into pregame predictions with the mindset of "Why would the Pats lose this game?"

It has taken a few years and a 4th-quarter disintegration against Indy to lead me to this point: I don't have the same type of confidence I used to have that my beloved Patriots will win tonight's game.

From 2001 to 2004, this kind of game was one that we as Pats fans could be assured they wouldn't lose. Now? I'm not sure what's going to happen. What happened against the Colts (notice I'm referring to that game as if it was the day a member of my family died) really has taken a hit to my confidence in this team's ability to win big games on the road.

I certainly want the Patriots to win what will be a back-and-forth game (not necessarily a shootout) but there are a few things that prevent me from thinking they will:

1. The inability of the defense to get off the field on third down and allow the opposing team to go on long drives. I'm aware of their defensive stats but we all know this is one of the real issues for this unit. This is a killer when you have Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Wes Welker sitting on the bench.

2. We all know it: Red Zone efficiency. We know the Patriots can and will rack up yardage against this Saints defense but it won't matter one bit if we see Stephen Gostkowski and the field goal unit running onto the field. And not just for 2 1/2 quarters like the (ugh..) Colts game. They need to be finishing off drives and score in the red zone when they get there.

3. This is related to #2 but people keep talking about the Saints secondary being weak and injured. Wasn't the Colts' entire defensive backfield out a few weeks ago? They didn't take advantage of that for 4 quarters and we have no reason to believe they will now.

4. This point resonated more than anything else with me: This team simply hasn't earned the right to be favored. Sure, if they win tonight they'll be right back up there with the Saints and Indy as an elite team. Right now, they are definitely one of the best teams in the league and most likely among the top five or six. However, they haven't proved to us they can win a game like this and make a huge statement.

This is a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately kind of league and the Pats haven't come out on top in games like this (I won't delve into the gory details of 2005-present) recently. I'm picking the Saints 28-24 in this game because of the previously mentioned points. I'm hoping I'm wrong (those of you who have read my stuff before know I usually am) and the Pats win this game going away but let's see them go out and win against the undefeated Saints on the road before we can pick them in big games.

Sox in 5

I’d like to start this Red Sox-Angels preview by looking back to almost a year ago. After the Sox were shut down by Matt Garza in game 7 of the ALCS, which shocked us all considering Garza’s historical temper/emotional issues. A lack of offense was evident as Garza was in control after Dustin Pedroia’s first-inning home run. The same issues (Jason’s Varitek and David Ortiz’s hitting woes) that were plaguing the Sox at that moment were just as troublesome in late July as the offense was as bad as it has looked since 2002.

Fast forward to now: You know all about the acquisition of Victor Martinez but his presence really has changed the culture of the Sox lineup. David Ortiz may be a mistake hitter at this point but that’s still a vast improvement over artist formerly known as David Ortiz that would look tentative and unsure of himself at the plate last year.

Mike Lowell can now walk in a straight line, unlike last year, and this offense has rounded into form to this point. How they’ll do against good pitching remains to be seen.
From the Angels perspective, they haven’t lost a beat since Mark Teixeira’s departure. The emergence of Kendry Morales gave this team a huge boost and he’s the go-to power hitter in the lineup now. Add Bobby Abreu in there and this is a different offense from last year as well.

KEY FACTORS:
Can Lacky/Weaver compete with Lester/Beckett? Clay Buchholz vs. Kazmir seems to be a wash so the first two games of this series are especially important.
Edge: Red Sox. Lackey hasn’t done a thing in the postseason since 2002. He pitched well against the Yankees in 2005 but in total he has lost 3 games without a win and can’t beat the Red Sox. A lot of it with him is mental. Example: Throwing Jason Bay an inside fastball after throwing breaking ball after breaking ball by him and Bay hitting it to the Moon in game 1 last year.

Offense: Will the Sox offense continue to look good or will it return to dormancy? The Angels offense has been balanced and well-rounded all year.
Edge: Angels. Until that question is answered, we have to give the benefit of the doubt Angels.

From the eighth inning on: Last year’s series provided a few tight games so we shouldn’t expect anything different in 2009. That’s why having Jonathan Papelbon and his playoff resume in addition to Billy Wagner at the end of games is so crucial to the Sox in this series. Sorry, Angels fans. Brian Fuentes (3.93 ERA) and Jason Bulger (3.68) will not be trustworthy in key situations.

Edge: Red Sox. I don’t need to tell you about Papelbon’s postseason stats. They speak for themselves. Billy Wagner will be the difference.

OUTCOME:
Red Sox in 5: Why? Simply put, the Red Sox have the better pitching, as they have the past few years. Me picking them has nothing to do with what happened in 2008, 2007 or 2004. The Red Sox weren’t great in the regular season by any means but this team is built for a long playoff run with Beckett and Lester.

Yankees-Twins Game 1

Something I was thinking about while waiting for the game to start: The last two times the Twins reached the playoffs (2004, 2006), Game 1 was so important to them because they couldn’t lose Johan Santana’s start or the series was considered over. That’s how much he meant to that team. Now, they have no pressure going into the opening game. Brian freakin’ Duensing is on the mound! What do they have to lose? You think Johan is watching in Queens? Kind of funny.

One last pregame thought: I really wish Justin Morneau was healthy for this series. The Twins wouldn’t be even close to topping the Bronx Bombers but, aside from CC Sabathia, there aren’t many pitchers on the Yankee staff who could get Morneau out.

Innings 1-2
A leadoff double from Denard Span gave the Twins some hope of a spark but the Twins went down scoreless. The first two innings have been scoreless and Duensing has kept the ball down to this point while letting his defense help him. He retired 6 batters in a row after Jeter’s leadoff single but you have to wonder if his smoke-and-mirrors approach will last past the fifth inning. Sabathia hasn’t looked great but he doesn’t have to as he’s facing this tired, albeit resilient, Twins team.

Top 3
Sabathia almost out of the inning but allows opposite field singles to Orlando Cabrera, Joe Mauer and Michael Cuddyer. Out of the three hits, only Mauer’s was a quality pitch.
Passed ball by Jorge Posada. Had to have been a mixed up signal seeing as it was a fastball. Let the Posada Molina arguments ensue….
TWINS 2, YANKEES 0

Bottom 3
Important inning, obviously, for Brian Duensing. He’s had the Yankees off balance and after getting Nick Swisher to line to left his wild pitch put Melky Cabrera on second base before…

Duensing hung an inside slider to Derek Jeter and Jeter knocks it many rows back into the left field seats. Easily the worst pitch of the evening. A guy like Duensing has such a small margin for error and he got burned on a bad breaking ball.
After a Damon single to left, Cabrera, surprisingly, gave the Yanks more life in this inning as his throw to Nick Punto was low and the Twins missed out on a double-play opportunity on a Mark Teixeira grounder. Ron Gardenhire has to be taking TUMs as he watches a team that can’t afford those kinds of mistakes miss out on a DP.

Arod struck out to end the threat, a truly shocking development.

I’m not the first to psycho-analyze Arod but…You have to think at this point Arod needs to do well his first game of the postseason or he will slide into his usual funk by trying to make up for what he didn’t do his last at bat.
TWINS 2, YANKEES 2

Top 4
Delmon Young leads off and has two awful swings to go 0-2 and the third pitch was even worse, more than a foot outside as he went down swinging on 3 strikes. Can the Twins dump him and bring in Dimitri?

Sabathia’s changeup is looking fantastic right now, which is good because it seems like he’s unable to locate his fastball as well as he wants to.

Bottom 4
Matsui rolls over on the first pitch and grounds out, big out for Duensing
Posada loves his bloop hits, doesn’t he? Why did I say that? Man…I guess I still do have some scar tissue from 2003.

With two outs and Cano on first after a fielder’s choice, Swisher rips another flat slider down the left field line. Cano may not have scored if Young had hit Cabrera on the fly with his relay.

Hmmm….he can’t hit (clearly) and can’t field. Why is he playing again?
Duensing is finally aggressive and gets an inside fastball (a roaring 91 mph) past Melky Cabrera.
YANKEES 3, TWINS 2

Top 5
After two quick outs, Cabrera singles to left to extend the inning and, more importantly, puts a runner on for Joe Mauer. I might try to run here to get a RISP. We’ll see how aggressive Gardenhire is here.

Cabrera steals second, I’m glad coach heard me.

If you’re thinking “Why don’t the Yanks walk Mauer, he’s Super Man" and you have first base open, check out Cuddyer’s stats in September. He had 8 HR and 24 RBI in that month alone and 32 bombs on the year. Don’t worry, I didn’t notice, either.
Anyway, Mauer grounds to second to end the inning. I know it’s early but Mauer not coming up with a hit while having a runner in RISP has to be a bit deflating for the Twinkies.

Bottom 5
Leadoff walk to Jeter. No good. Looking like it might be curtains soon for Duensing.
Duensing is extremely lucky the rocket off Damon’s bat wound up in Cuddyer’s glove and after Teixeria’s pop out, Arod once again is up with a man on second.
Maybe Arod will give himself a chance to come out of the postseason funk now. His single to left center drove home Jeter and he obviously knew he only had 1 RBI in his past 16 playoff games. It’ll be interesting to see how he hits now that he finally had a big hit with a RISP.

Side note: Francisco Liriano is now warming in the bullpen. It almost makes me sad to see him in that role. He and Kerry Wood had the two best sliders I’ve seen in the past 15 years before getting hurt.

Liriano in, Hideki Matsui bomb out into the night. Not a terrible pitch from Liriano but the wind didn’t help as Matsui’s fly ball kept carrying.
YANKEES 6, TWINS 2

Top 6
Um…..what happened that inning? I got up to grab a drink and it was over. Did Sabathia really retire three in a row after getting another 3 runs? Do they need to play the rest of this game?

Seriously, though, the Twins not scoring in the fifth pretty much sealed this game for the Yankees. You can see the Twins are running on fumes.

Bottom 6
Nice play from Nick Punto at second might be the highlight of the remainder of the evening for Minnesota.

Top 7
I was wrong, the Twinkies have life! Matt Tolbert’s HBP put him at first and Nick Punto’s grounder off Sabathia put runners on for Denard Span with 2 outs.
I couldn’t imagine trying to hit Sabathia’s slider as a left-handed hitter. The difference with his slider is that late break. He’s worth every penny he makes.

Posada can’t find the baseball on a low pitch to move the runners over with 1 out. Span’s fly ball to right can’t bring Tolbert home and Sabathia night is over.
Enter Phil Hughes. Cabrera’s job is clear: get on base somehow (there are 7 ways, remember) and get the soon-to-be MVP up. He’s doing a nice job of fouling off pitches on the outer half of the plate and brought it to a full count. Hughes throws a seed on the outside corner and strikes Cabrera out.

Bottom 7
A Jeter walk, Teixeira double play ball, and ANOTHER Arod RBI has the Yankees up 7-2 going into the top of the eighth.
YANKEES 7, TWINS 2

Top 8
I feel like this is a waste of a Joe Mauer at bat since he’s leading off the eighth inning of a game in which his team is down 7-2.

Mauer unleashes that beautiful swing and lines a single to center. Not unexpectedly, three straight outs are recorded to end the inning as Phil Coke and Joba Chamberlain come in to get an out each.

Bottom 8
Ron Mahay is still kicking around, huh? Seems like over 10 years since he was in a Sox uniform. Oh, wait…it has! Ahhhh, the joys of being a lefty.
Three up and three down. Could this game be close to coming to an end?

Top 9
Mariano Rivera into the game with a 5 run lead. I don’t like the Twins chances here.
Despite a pair of hits with 2 outs, the end of the game was never “interesting” and Rivera induced a groundout from Cabrera to end it.

FINAL: YANKEES 7, TWINS 2

There is very little doubt in my mind the Yankees sweep this series.

I like the Cardinals both tonight and in the series to beat the Dodgers. I don’t see it going more than 4 games.

Check back tomorrow for a Sox-Angels preview.

AFC South Preview

The Colts didn't win the division last year and lost their playoff game to the Chargers but I like their chances to get healthy and return to their 12-win level.

HOUSTON TEXANS

Prediction: 10-6

This is the year they break through. Finally. A perfect storm in which Andre Johnson, Steve Slaton and a HEALTHY Matt Schaub are in sync and weapons Kevin Walter and Owen Daniels all contribute to a very good offense. Mario Williams is obviously the stud of the defense but in order for the Texas to reach the next level they need Dunta Robinson to return to his rookie form of 2004 in which he had 6 interceptions.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Prediction: 6-10

Frankly, not a very good team and things look bleak after a 5-11 season in 2008. Maurice Jones-Drew has the offense on his shoulders and the Jags are hoping for a Torry Holt renaissance. The defense doesn't look much improved from the one that finished 17th in total defense at over 330 yards per game last year. It's been said before but Jacksonville fans won't be missing much with the TV blackouts this year.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Prediction: 12-4

Peyton Manning and Joseph Addai are both healthy again and Anthony Gonzalez is ready to make the jump to 75+ catches as Manning's No. 2 man now. A defense that was solid with 18.6 allowed per game last year comes back with Dwight Freeney and Gary Brackett leading the squad. If Bob Sanders returns healthy, this team is a Super Bowl contender once again.

TENNESSEE TITANS

Prediction: 9-7

They're obviously weaker without Haynesworth but I really think Kerry Collins will no longer be able to get by as a game manager who relies on his defense to win. He will need to get the ball down field and limit his turnovers, neither of which I think he do. Chris Johnson and Lendale White will keep them in games but if the defense falters the Titans will not have the ability to catch up. Keith Bullock no longer creates turnovers and has become the Tennessee version of Teddy Bruschi.

NFC East Preview

The NFC East has been among the NFL’s most competitive in terms of all four teams being involved the past few years but 2009 looks to be a two team race. The Eagles and Giants will be battling it out for the division with the Giants showing their championship pedigree and leading the NFC East.

DALLAS COWBOYS

Prediction: 8-8
The Cowboys have a coach in Wade Phillips who will never win a big game and quarterback in Tony Romo who doesn’t strike fear into other teams with TO now in Buffalo. This team is less talented than 2008, a year in which it went 9-7 and missed the playoffs. Cowboys fans will be envisioning Bill Cowher strolling the sidelines by November.

NEW YORK GIANTS

Prediction: 12-4

Yes, they will miss watch-my-leg Plaxico Burress but Osi Umenyiora is back and this defense is as scary as ever. Eli Manning, as much as I dislike him, has proven he can do more than just manage the game and he is a legitimate threat as a down field passer. The fact that Hakeem Nicks has emerged as another weapon for the Giants makes this team even better and more potent come playoff time.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Prediction: 11-5

This has to be one of the fastest teams in recent memory. Imagine a formation in which Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson in the same Wild Cat formation. Pretty scary. Darren Howard and Asante Samuel will once again lead this defense but it will miss Jim Johnson more than people think. The Eagles will just miss out on the division title but grab a wild card spot.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Prediction: 7-9

The 'Skins high-profile acquisition Albert Haynesworth hasn't proven he can stay on the field for 16 games nor has Jason Campbell been consistent over a full season. If these two perceptions stay the way they are, Washington will be in for another mediocre season. Clinton Portis may get his 1200-1300 yards this year but in general this offense has showed the ability to put enough points on the board to win in the East.

Hilarious

From: Jeff Peters
Date: Wednesday 8 April 2009 10.22am
To: David Thorne
Subject: Membership Renewal

Dear David

This is a friendly reminder to let you know your gym membership expired last week. Your membership is important to us and we would like to take this opportunity to show our appreciation by offering you a 20% discount on your membership renewal. We look forward to seeing you again soon.

All the best, Jeff Peters

From: David Thorne
Date: Wednesday 8 April 2009 1.37pm
To: Jeff Peters
Subject: Re: Membership Renewal

Dear Jeff,

Thankyou for your friendly reminder and the kind offer to reduce my membership by twenty percent. I own a calculator but I could not work out how to do percentages on it so have estimated that I save around $372.10 off the normal price of $420.00 - Please confirm that this is correct and I will renew my membership immediately. Also, do I get a Fitness First sports bag with towel and drinking bottle included in the price? I own my own legwarmers and headband.

Regards, David.

From: Jeff Peters
Date: Thursday 9 April 2009 10.01am
To: David Thorne
Subject: Re: Re: Membership Renewal Due

Hello David

How did you come to that amount? Our half year membership fees are actually $460 but with the 20% discount as an existing member your renewing membership fee would be only $368 for the six months saving you almost $100 off the normal price. We are not Fitness First so do not have those bags.

Cheers, Jeff

From: David Thorne
Date: Thursday 9 April 2009 10.18am
To: Jeff Peters
Subject: Re: Re: Re: Membership Renewal Due

Dear Jeff

Do I get free shipping with that?

Regards, David.

From: Jeff Peters
Date: Thursday 9 April 2009 12.48pm
To: David Thorne
Subject: Re: Re: Re: Re: Membership Renewal Due

Free shipping with what? The $368 covers your membership fees for six months.

From: David Thorne
Date: Thursday 9 April 2009 2.26pm
To: Jeff Peters
Subject: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Membership Renewal Due

Dear Jeff

By the power of Greyskull that is a lot of money but I admit to being in desperate need of increasing my body strength. My ten year old child often turns the taps off in the bathroom very tightly and I have to go several days without washing. I feel bad constantly having to ask the lady from next door to come over and loosen them for me, what with her arthritis and limited wheelchair access to my apartment. To be honest, I originally joined your gym with full intentions of attending every few days but after waiting in vain for someone to offer me steroids, I began to suspect this was not going to happen and the realisation that I may have to exercise instead was, quite frankly, horrifying. My aversion to work, along with the fact one of your employees, Justin, was rather rude, telling me to 'lift this', ''push that' dulled my initial enthusiasm of becoming muscular and I stopped attending.

Regards, David.

From: Jeff Peters
Date: Friday 10 April 2009 9.17am
To: David Thorne
Subject: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Membership Renewal Due

Hello David

Not sure how to take your email, nobody here would offer you steroids, it is illegal and none of our staff would do this. Justin is one of our most experienced trainers and if you found him rude while he was trying to be helpful and just doing his job then there are plenty of other gyms you could look at joining instead.

Cheers, Jeff


From: David Thorne
Date: Friday 10 April 2009 10.02am
To: Jeff Peters
Subject: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Membership Renewal Due

Dear Jeff

Yes, I have noticed that there are many gyms in my area. I assume the low qualification requirements of fitness trainers means that there is an over supply of these buffed but essentially otherwise purposeless professionals. I knew a guy in high school who couldn't talk very well and collected sticks, he used to call the teacher 'mum' and during recess we would give him money to dance. Then sell him sticks to get our money back. He went on to become a fitness instructor so I view gyms as kind of like those factories that provide a community service by employing people with down syndrome to lick stamps and pack boxes. Except with more Spandex obviously.

Regards, David.

From: Jeff Peters
Date: Friday 10 April 2009 10.32am
To: David Thorne
Subject: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Membership Renewal Due

Go yourself.

From: David Thorne
Date: Friday 10 April 2009 11.38am
To: Jeff Peters
Subject: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Membership Renewal Due

Dear Jeff

I was, at first, quite surprised at your response; one minute you are inviting me to renew my membership and asking me for money, the next insulting me. After doing a little research however, I have learnt that mood swings are an expected side effect of steroid abuse. As another side effect is a reduction in the size of your penis, this gives you understandable cause to be an angry person. I have also learnt that Spandex contains carcinogenic properties so this does not bode well for yourself and your shiny friends. If I woke up one morning and my penis was a quarter of the size AND I had testicular cancer, I would probably take my anger out on those around me as well. There are probably support groups or websites that could help you manage your problem more effectively and picture based books available on the subject for people with limited reading skills. When I am angry I like to Listen to music by Linkin Park. The added angst and desire to cut myself works similarly to the way firefighters fight forest fires by burning off sections, effectively canceling each other out and I find myself at peace. I understand that you guys usually listen to Pet Shop Boys or Frankie Goes to Hollywood so this may be worth a try.

Regards, David.

From: Jeff Peters
Date: Friday 10 April 2009 1.04pm
To: David Thorne
Subject: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Membership Renewal Due

DO NOT EMAIL ME AGAIN

From: David Thorne
Date: Friday 10 April 2009 1.15pm
To: Jeff Peters
Subject: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Membership Renewal Due

Ok.

From: Jeff Peters
Date: Friday 10 April 2009 1.25pm
To: David Thorne
Subject: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Membership Renewal Due

Is that you being a smartarse or agreeing not to email me again?

From: David Thorne
Date: Friday 10 April 2009 1.32pm
To: Jeff Peters
Subject: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Membership Renewal Due

The middle one.

September Run?

As the 2009 season heads toward September I still don’t feel as though the Red Sox have gained a real identity. Actually, more to the point, their perceived strengths have changed from month to month and we don’t really know what this team is capable of down the stretch. Is this a team that can strike fear into the Yankees if they meet up? Will they even make the playoffs? Let’s take a look at the three areas that have fluctuated at different points for the Sox.

Early on, the Sox’ superior rotation depth was supposed to leave them with a conundrum in June when future Hall-of-Famer John Smoltz would be waiting in the wings and Clay Buchholz ready if everything went south. Now as of August 27, everything went wrong and (great start from Tim Wakefield aside) he could be considered the third starter. I wish I had an answer to why Brad Penny and John Smoltz failed so badly in Boston or why Dice-K’s high-wire act from 2008 finally dissolved. The last time I was this wrong about a rotation was when I thought Jeff Suppan was the answer in 2003. We’ll have a better idea of whether this team will be making a deep run in October when we see how Dice-K looks upon his return and if Wakefield can stay healthy.

Next was the Jason Bay-led offense (despite the absence of David Ortiz). Bay had 15 home runs and 49 RBI by the end of May and that dreadlocked guy who used to reside in left field was no longer a fixture in WEEI conversation. A .230 June and .192 July from Bay shed light on the fact that not only is this offense not deep enough to succeed with its RBI man in a bad slump, but makes you wonder how it was able to produce runs early on in the season. Maybe Bay getting hot in the playoffs and pushing the Rays to a game 7 combined with the good start gave us the illusion this offense was just fine without Manny or Mark Teixeira.

While having Victor Martinez in the picture makes this lineup much more dangerous and I believe Kevin Youkilis to be the team’s MVP because of his versatility and consistent month-to-month numbers (at least 4 HR and 13 RBI in every month so far), it’s clear Jason Bay holds the key to this offense. The stats support the obvious result of him driving in runs as the Sox are 10-3 since July 26 when Bay drives in a run but when he’s hot it gives Youkilis, Martinez and Mike Lowell better pitches to hit.

The solid, consistent numbers from this bullpen would lead you to believe this could be its identity. I’ll ask you this, though: are you confident in these young guys in the playoffs? Daniel Bard’s eighth inning implosion on Sunday Night Baseball on August 9 in Yankee Stadium scared the hell out of me . I had visions of the Yankee magic of old when he gave up those bombs to Damon and Teixeira. He’s a young guy with some of the best stuff on the staff and I want to have confidence in him in that situation because it very well could present itself again in October. Bard’s bad outing aside, Ramon Ramirez has never pitched in the playoffs (even though he was on that ’07 Rockies team) and Manny Delcarmen hasn’t proven himself in the playoffs either.

Jonathan Papelbon hasn’t been exactly bullet-proof in 2009. He already has more walks this year than ’07 and ’08 combined. Needless to say, his command is a concern but he gets it done come October. Along with Papelbon, Hideki Okajima has been a rock for this team both in the playoffs and regular season. His value can’t be dismissed. I hope Billy Wagner is anything close to the guy with a 2.39 ERA but he’s spent his whole career in the NL and he isn’t exactly Sean Casey in the clubhouse.

The fact that this team hasn’t found a niche isn’t necessarily a bad thing. A rotation of Beckett, Lester, Wakefield, Buchholz and Tazawa/Dice-K/Bowden could be very good and Wagner could make an already deep bullpen the best in the majors. I think this offense has finally found itself and will be clicking in September. Terry Francona will earn his money in September as he juggles the offensive impact a Lowell/Martinez lineup has vs. the game calling and defense Jason Varitek brings. Good luck, Tito.

A few side notes:

-Look for a huge September from Dustin Pedroia. He’s been driving the ball again recently and I’d be shocked if he didn’t start showing more power soon.

-So long, Brad Penny. I won’t miss watching your John Wasdin-eqsue fastballs and overall d-bag mannerisms on the mound.

-How dumb is Tony Pena for locating his slider to Ortiz in the same exact spot he struck Youkilis out on? If I were a White Sox fan I’d take my nearest Ron Karkovice card and rip it to shreds.

-Shut up, Milton Bradley. No one likes you and you aren’t a good enough player for anything that you say or do to be considered real news.

-A .291 batting average with 2 homers and 9 RBI in August for Manny Ramirez in August. Feel free to make your own joke about Manny’s empty stats during a time in which his team has let the Rockies crawl to within 3 games of the division lead. Good stuff.

-Joe Mauer is a .373-hitting catcher with 25 home runs and more walks than strikeouts (52-49). I don’t care if the Twins are in the playoff hunt or not, he’s the AL MVP.

-Aaron Hill has 30 home runs. With a huge September he could be the fourth second baseman ever to hit 40 bombs. The others? Ryne Sandberg, Rogers Hornsby and Davey Johnson. Jay Bell came close with 38 in 1999 but no one has done it since Sandberg hit 40 in 1990.

-Chris Carpenter’s comeback has been impressive. If anything, he’s better than before.

Thoughts for baseball's second half

Seeing as it’s been months since I’ve written anything, I thought this would be a good time for some post-all star break MLB thoughts.

-I am worried about Mike Lowell’s hip and what losing him for an extended period of time could mean to the Red Sox. Theo Epstein is going to need to decide quickly (within the next few weeks, obviously) if Lowell is going to be able to continue being an everyday player when he returns from the DL. Despite his 25-game hitting streak, Scott Rolen would not be the answer. He's just as brittle as Lowell...and he's generally regarded as a douche.

Allow me to go on a random tangent here: I was thinking about all Lowell has accomplished in Boston the other day and I’m not sure fans realize how good he was in 2007. He and Mike Schmidt are the only two third basemen to drive in 120 runs and win the World Series the same year. Some pretty good company there.

-If I’m the Phillies I like the Pedro signing but they’re going to need Roy Halladay to have any chance at repeating. No one has really talked about it much but Cole Hamels is suffering from Josh Beckett syndrome – i.e. going deep into the post season and carrying a staff and paying for it the next year. Look at the 2005 White Sox. How many of those guys were the same after all those playoff innings? Halladay could take a great deal of pressure off of Hamels to return to October ’08 form.

-How is it that the Rangers have been relatively healthy (with the exception of Josh Hamilton) while the Angels have been ripped with injuries all year (John Lackey, Earvin Santana, Vlad…the list goes on) yet Anaheim is 1.5 games ahead of Texas? This might be Mike Scioscia’s best year managing.

-Did anyone else see how fast Justin Upton got down the line when he nearly beat out a hard ground out to short in the All-Star game? I would love to watch him play every day.

-Those who think Joe Mauer is going anywhere are dreaming. I’m talking to you, WEEI caller who proposes Javier Lopez and Julio Lugo for the best young hitter in the game. There is no way Minnesota will let a hometown, home-grown talent get away when they’re moving into an outdoor park.

Side note: The Twins new park in March and early April will make San Francisco’s seem like a sauna. That place is going to brutal to play in early in the season.

-David Ortiz’s resurgent June (7 home runs, 18 RBI) was a good sign and certainly gives us optimism for the second half but from a historical perspective it doesn’t tell us much. The two guys he has been most compared to are Jim Rice and Boog Powell. Powell completely fell of the face of the earth and never at any point after his last good season in 1975 did he come close to Ortiz’s June.
Rice, on the other hand, was up and down his final few years. He had some very good months like a 5 home run, 15 RBI July in 1987 or 4 homer, 23 RBI June of 1988. That trend actually scares me because Ortiz’s June might not be a prelude of things to come but more of a blip on the radar like Rice’s quality stretches.

Never Change, Stan

I have never been a fan of Keyshawn Johnson. In fact, I've despised him for years. But I started thinking about his infamous "Get me the damn ball" quote the other night while watching the second quarter of the Celtics-Magic game. I'm sure you have an idea where I'm going with this. If the Magic were smart (to our benefit, they are not) they would lock Dwight Howard in a room with Keyshawn and not let him leave until the art of "getting the damn ball" has been effectively presented to him. Howard simply isn't imposing his will when his team needs it most.

This series is tied 1-1 but there were two points in which the Magic have absolutely needed him to take over. The first was late in the fourth quarter in game 1 when their seemingly insurmountable lead was slipping away. The second was midway through the second quarter on Wednesday when the Celtics were taking control. Howard went 2-6 from the field (including a wild 10-foot hook shot) and 1-4 from the line after returning with 8:15. At this point the Magic were down 35-27 and the game was still in reach but Howard didn’t come back with the mentality that he wasn’t going to let the Celtics run away with this one. That’s where the Keyshawn reference comes into play. Sure, the guy sounded like a jerk and he was an overrated ball-hog of a receiver but when you apply this thought process to basketball, specifically the best center in the league, it certainly has merit.

Howard had 12 field goal attempts in game 1 to go along with 5 free-throw attempts. You could make the argument that the game dictated his touches because the Magic were killing the Celtics up and down the court. He only had 13 and 8 in game 2. Seriously. That is an absolute joke. I don’t even pin all the blame on the Magic guards. Guys like Rafer “Love Tap” Alston or Courtney Lee can’t turn the proverbial switch on for Howard. I remember when Hakeem wanted the ball on the block, it was given to him. If they dropped it to him in the low post on a continual basis he could change the complexion of a game, regardless of the score. Patrick Chewing…er…Ewing is a better comparison to Howard in that I never considered him a game-changer in the light of an Olajuwon or Russell. Even Howard’s double-doubles often aren’t all that impressive.

Only after they announced he had 16 points and 22 rebounds in Game 1 did I realize how bare those numbers really were. Never at any point did me or my friends and I say, “Wow, he’s getting angry and taking over.” If I’m a Magic fan that would piss me off to no end. Paul Pierce may do some dumb things over the course of a game but has a keen sense of timing. He knows when his team needs his offensive willpower and production. I’m aware he plays small forward and creates his own offense as opposed to Howard, who needs a distributor. However, my point remains the same: the Celtics better hope Ron Jere…..I mean…Stan Van Gundy doesn’t wise up and force 20-25 shots from Howard.