Another Sign Beltre Is Going To Rangers (2 UPDATES)

Yesterday we had a post about how rumors were going around that Adrian Beltre was getting close to a deal with the Rangers. Well, it seems to have more legs today after reading what Michael Young had to say...

"Michael Young told Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News "I'm willing to move to DH," so the club can sign and play Adrian Beltre at third base, a change from the veteran's original approach to switching positions for the second time in three years (ESPN)."

I hope Texas fans really love Young, because this is now the 3rd time he has had his position changed (if this is true). He has played 2nd, SS, 3rd, and now will be a DH utility guy. It really does give the Rangers some awesome depth, and if Beltre plays well this will once again be a hell of a lineup.

If Beltre does sign with the Rangers then Vlad's days there are over, and since we haven't really heard much about him in awhile it seem to point that there is something to all of this.

***UPDATE***

The Rangers are close to a six-year deal with Adrian Beltre, according to Yahoo's Tim Brown. Jon Heyman of SI.com reports that the Rangers are making progress and that a deal would be in the $90-100MM range (MLBTradeRumors)."

***UPDATE 2***

Done deal.

"As expected, it's a six-year deal worth $96MM according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (on Twitter). SI.com's Jon Heyman tweets that the Rangers will be able to void the sixth year if Beltre falls short of a specific number of plate appearances in years four and five combined, or just year five (MLBTradeRumors)."

Rangers About To Sign Beltre?

ESPN is running with the rumor that the Rangers are about to sign Adrian Beltre to a multiyear deal, but according to MLBTraderumors (great site by the way) there is nothing close...

"Multiple reports suggested that the Rangers and Adrian Beltre were close to an agreement on a multiyear deal yesterday, but it turns out that "nothing is remotely imminent" between the team and the third baseman. Though MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan reported that the sides aren't nearing a deal, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram says there "appears to be some hope" about a potential agreement. Here's the latest on the talks between Scott Boras and Beltre's suitors."

I have said from the beginning that I thought Beltre would sign with the Angels, but the Angels have such a grudge with Boras that I'm not sure if they can get past it. I'm a big believer that if Beltre gets a big contract his numbers will fall, but if he went to the Rangers it would probably give him the best shot to keep his numbers up. That lineup is just too damn good.

Angels About To Make Some Moves (UPDATED)

After losing out of Carl Crawford the Angels have for the most part been in a standstill. At the beginning of the offseason they were thought to be one of the teams that would be throwing around a lot of money, but since have really done nothing.

Today there are rumors that Scott Boras has informed some teams that he has a five-year, $70 million offer in hand for Beltre, which is thought to be from the Angels. Along with that there are a lot of rumors that they are about to sign Scott Podsednik.

At this point if the Angels are going to compete at all next year Beltre is a must. Yea, I think he is going to do nothing once he signs that contract, but the Angels really could use some offensive power.

Scott Podsednik I guess is the poor mans Carl Crawford. Actually I don't even like that. He has speed, but not as much as he used to, and he is nothing but a band-aid.


***UPDATE***

Maybe it wasn't the Angels that offered that deal... "there are hints that the Halos have dropped out of the Beltre sweepstakes, according to Joe McDonnel, after Beltre turned down the club's mega offer. McDonnel cites a source that says "there's no room for further negotiation (ESPN)."

Rangers Make Play For Beltre

ESPN's Karl Revech tweets Monday that the Rangers have made an "aggressive play" for Beltre.

I don't like this at all, because most likely it means the Yankees are getting closer to signing Cliff Lee. Scott Boras is seeking a deal in the five-year, $75-million range for Beltre, which I think is ridiculous.

The Rangers still have Michael Young under contract for three more seasons, so if they acquire Beltre they'd either need to trade Young or use him as a DH.

Anyways, we will keep you updated as this story develops, but if this rumor is true it doesn't look good for Rangers fans that were helping to hold on to Cliff Lee.

Beltre Wants To Stay With Red Sox?

"There's a lot going on right now, but I do hope I stay with the Red Sox," Beltre said in Friday's Boston Globe. "I could make a deal right now if I wanted to, but I want to wait and make sure I make the right decision (Boston.com)."

I'm not buying it. I have heard from the beginning that Beltre would like to go back to the west coast. Rumors have it the Red Sox will go no more than four years, $52 million. That offer has already been beaten by the A's who offered him a five-year, $64-million offer. I just don't see Beltre taking a discount to stay in Boston.

And to be honest, I don't really want Beltre back. I know he is going get his money and then turn into a very average player. I have said from the beginning that I want the Sox to land a power hitting first baseman (Konerko, Gonzalez, Fielder, ect), because I feel the Sox really lack a hitter that pitcher will fear. They have basically been missing that since Manny left, so all and all I hope I'm right and Beltre takes off for Oakland.

Let Beltre Go, But Keep Victor

There are rumors that Adrian Beltre has been offered a 5 year deal by the Oakland Athletics worth $64 million. The Sox would be fools to match this. Beltre is only 31, but his career is an up and down roller coaster of inconsistency. And he's known for having a big year when his contract is up, only to fall off the next season.

Victor Martinez turns 32 in a few weeks, and he plays a more physically demanding position than Beltre, and he doesn't play it very well. His 2010 campaign wasn't as productive as Beltre's, but it's just one year in a steady stream of consistent performances. He'll hit .280 to .300, with an OBP between .340 and .380, and slug between .460 and .500. Because of this offensive reliability, Victor Martinez is worth a 5 year deal.

Martinez will not catch forever, and should be moved to 1B and/or DH. But he can catch for a year until Ortiz's contract runs out, then move to DH. He's a better hitter when not catching anyway. In the meantime, the Sox can find a more permanent solution to their catching situation.

And that's the other big difference between Beltre and Martinez. The Sox can lose Beltre, then trade for or sign another good corner infielder to replace his production. That's not going to happen very easily at catcher.

Beltre's not worth any deal longer than 3 years. Victor Martinez, due to his consistency, and the immediate lack of depth at his position, is.

-The Commodore

Red Sox Set Limit On Beltre, V-Mart (UPDATED)

The Red Sox have said that keeping Adrian Beltre and Victor are one of their top priorities this offseason, but a source tells Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe that they won't offer them more than four years and $52MM. ESPN

I don't like offering 4 years to Beltre however, I would imagine thats a fair deal. I just don't think Adrian Beltre and Scott Boras will accept a 10 and change contract for Beltre after the year he had. Also, I don't want Beltre on the Red Sox anyways. He's 31 and I just really think he's a contract year player. (Shame on me if I'm wrong) Plus that would be an end to an Adrian Gonzalez/ Prince Fielder rumors.

I do think V-Mart is a little bit more important to the Red Sox, so I really hope that isn't a hard line. Other teams would seriously outbid them.

Also, rumor has it that the Red Sox would think of trading Marco Scutaro if the opportunity to arise and the Sox would then install Jed Lowrie at short. I'm not really a Lowrie guy, but you can't deny the end of the season he had. Scutaro had a good offensive year, and I would prefer him unless we get anything significant.

***UPDATE***

"Theo Epstein denies he has drawn a "line in the sand" on Adrian Beltre talks. Certainly Epstein will have his limits as talks progress, but right now he said talks are still ongoing (Boston.com).

Good News For Red Sox?

Buster Olney made an interesting comment this morning about the relationship between the Angels and Scott Boras...

"They want Crawford, of course, and Beltre would be an excellent fit for Mike Scioscia's team, but remember, the Angels haven't gotten into a whole lot of give-and-take negotiations in recent years -- and Boras is the ultimate give-and-take agent. In recent years, there seems to have been a split between the Angels and Boras. We'll see if that's a factor."

From what I have read the Angels are ready to spend big this offseason, so I doubt this will matter much. I just really want Crawford, they Angels have have Beltre, because I know he is going to pull shit once he signs his name to whatever absurd contract he gets.

In not so good news, the Rangers are rumored to have jumped in the V-Mart race. I find that kind of funny, because all we did is hear they had too many good young catchers for like 4 years, and now they are out searching for one.

Gammons Says "Don't Expect V-Mart Back"

Peter Gammons was on WEEI yesterday and had a lot to say about what the Sox will be looking to do this offseason. He first touches on Red Sox free agents Beltre and V-Mart...

"I don't expect Victor Martinez to come back, I think Detroit is going to give him four or five years," said Gammons. "And I don't think anyone else is going to give him four or five years. I'm not so sure Beltre will be back, I can't gauge that market. But I do think they will go hard after Crawford, I really believe that."

That is just awful news. I really trust Gammons, and I agree that if the Tigers give him a 5 year deal there is no way the Sox will match (although I would). Beltre I expected to be gone, there is just no way they trust him to put up those numbers again, and he is known for having "contract years".

DP and I agree that the Sox biggest offseason concern has to be to resign V-Mart. There just aren't any other catchers that come close to him (other then Mauer). Losing him would be a huge blow unless they go out and trade for someone like Prince Fielder or Gonzalez.

Gammons wasn't done there. He also talked about Carl Crawford...

"There is no doubt in my mind that they (Red Sox) are going to go really hard after Carl Crawford," said Gammons. "That will be a matchup with the Angels, and you know there are some puffs of smoke coming out of New York that suggest the Yankees might go after him, even though their primary need is pitching."

He seemed sold on the fact that the Sox are going to land Crawford. As much as I am excited about that, I don't think it will be enough to bring this lineup to the next level. The Sox really need a power bat in the middle of that lineup, especially if lose V-Mart to Detriot.

Gammons also said that Cliff Lee is definitely going to resign with Texas. Suck on that Yankees.

Red Sox 11 Rays 5

The Sox were down 4-0 to the Rays in the 2nd inning last night, and it looked like they were going to get routed much like the night before, then the MVP of the season (Beltre) hit a 2-run HR, and everything changed. Wake was able to settle down and get through 5 innings letting up 4 runs.

Scutaro was the hero of this game belting 2 HRs. I still think he should be shut down for the season, but you can't argue with the results. What was really impressive was the way the Sox bullpen actually came through for them. Scott Atchison, Daniel Bard, and Hideki Okajima combined to pitch 4 scoreless innings. That is a fucking miracle with the way they've been playing all year.

Lars Anderson got his first two major league hits, both singles, and drove in a run. It will be real interesting to watch him the rest of the year. I really hope he goes off, so the Sox can use him as trade bait this offseason.

With the win the Sox are still 6 1/2 games back for the Wild Card.

Indians 6, Red Sox 5

The Red Sox are now 14-14 against the four worst teams in the AL. That inexcusable mediocrity against the dregs of the League has become all too predictable.

So you thought John Lackey had turned a corner, eh? Well he's dominated AL West teams, going 3-0 with a 2.96 ERA. But against everyone else, he's a disappointing 7-5 with a 4.84 ERA. He allowed 9 hits and walked 5 last night, in 5.1 innings of work.

Beltre continues to hammer the ball. He belted his 18th and 19th homers of the season. I wasn't too keen on the Sox' signing him, but he's been indispensable. Offensively, not defensively. Run production > Run prevention.

Marco Scutaro was 2 for 5, and is now 13 for his last 28 (.464). That's pretty hot. His hits have predominantly been singles, and he's been left on base too often. The Sox have resumed their RISP struggles, and were 2 for 11 last night in such situations.

The Sox should win tonight. Beckett faces David Huff, who's 2-9 with a 6.04 ERA. But since Huff sucks, and the Indians suck, the Sox will lose 7-4.

-The Commodore

Finally Some Good News On Ellsbury

Theo Epstein sounded optimistic when talking about Jacoby Ellsbury's rehab...

“I don’t want to put a timetable on it but a normal hitting progression is two weeks but I think it’s good news that he’s already ahead of that schedule, [two weeks] from picking up a bat to being able to take game at-bats,” Epstein said.

It is about time that we get some kind of timetable on him. Whether it was the Red Sox fault for misdiagnosis, Ellsbury being a wimp, or his agent holding him out, it doesn't matter. The Sox need him back in the lineup, because I don't believe we are going to get anything from Cameron. The Sox lineup can be a lot more electric when Ellsbury is on the field, so hopefully he will be back in 3-4 weeks. My only concern is whether or not the Sox will still be in the running for the playoffs when he does come back.

Other injury news:

- Clay Buchholz is expected to make just one rehab start before returning to the Red Sox rotation.

- Adrian Beltre, who had his hamstring tighten the day before the All-Star break on Sunday is not expected to head to the disabled list. Beltre will have an MRI on Thursday to make sure the hamstring issue was only a cramp and that he is ready for the start of the second half of the season.

- Jeremy Hermida will start a three-game rehab assignment Thursday for Double-A Portland in New Britain.

MLB All-Star Lineups

AL: Lineup:
Ichiro Suzuki -rf
Derek Jeter-ss
Miguel cabrera-1B
Josh Hamilton-CF
Vlad Guerrero-DH
Evan Longoria-3B
Joe Mauer-c
Robinson Cano-2B
Carl Crawford-LF

NL Lineup:
Hanley Ramirez-SS
Martin Prado-2B
Albert Pujols-1B
Ryan Howard-DH
David Wright-3B
Ryan Braun-LF
Andre Ethier-CF
Corey Hart-RF
Yadier Molina-C

You'll notice that Beltre is out of the lineup. He has been pulled from the game due to his hamstring injury. Michael Young will taking his place. The starter will be David Price (AL) vs. Ubaldo Jiminez.

Red Sox 9, Athletics 4

Victor Martinez was 5 for 5 with 4 doubles as the Sox' offense propelled them to their 30th win of the season. And yes, the Sox are still in 4th, but it's a strong 4th. They'd be leading the AL West, or be a very close second in every other division in baseball apart from the AL East.

John Lackey was as mediocre as ever allowing 12 freaking hits over 6 innings of hard work. He threw 116 pitches and allowed 4 earned runs. Declarmen and Bard were perfect when the game was tight. It was nice to see the Sox exploit Oakland's bullpen, pull away, and give Papelbon the night off.

Adrian Beltre was 3 for 5 with a huge 3 run homer. He's hitting .342 this season, but more impressively he's .367 with runners on and .423 with runners in scoring position. Screw run prevention, A-Bel is giving the Sox some much needed run production.



But as Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre soar, Dustin Pedroia struggles. He was 1 for 5 last night, but he's 10 for his last 68 (.147), and only two of those hits were for extra bases. He'll likely break out of it, but he's a cornerstone to a successful Sox offense. Without Pedroia, and with Ellsbury "injured," this team lacks table-setters.

Interesting game to watch tonight as Daisuke Matsuzaka faces Ben Sheets. Daisuke's only allowed 3 hits in his last two starts. But he's also surrendered 12 walks. And I do mean surrender.

-The Commodore

Red Sox 3 Angels 1

I was off about the score, but right on about the players of the game, as Lackey dominated his former team going 7 innings allowing 1 runs on 2 hits with 4 K's. The other guy I picked for player of the game had a night for himself too going 3-4 with 2 RBI (including his 2nd HR of the season). Ortiz also added a solo HR. Between those three guys, and the bullpen (Papelbon, Bard) doing their job it was smooth sailing (Papelbon got his 8th save of the young season).

Pineiro had a better game then I predicted going 6 innings allowing 2 runs, but I still think he sucks, and is lucky he didn't get slaughtered letting up 8 hits. The Angles seem to be falling apart. They have gone 0-5 so far in May, which is the first time in team history that has happened.

I probably sounds like a broken record, but this is the way the Sox are going to have to win. Solid pitching that gets you deep into game, and clutch hitting when you need it. I don't see the Sox blowing the doors off teams, but their pitching really is this good, and at least that is something to build on.

With the win the Sox are still 6 1/2 behind the Rays, and 5 1/2 behind the Yankees in the AL East.

Oh and there is no way I am going to discuss the fact that Nomar was there, or the fact they brought back Daubach (who looked like he is weighing about 3 bills) and Trot Nixon to welcome him, because when I saw that I almost hung myself.

Red Sox Introduce Adrian Beltre

Has the Red Sox defense really improved?

The signing of Adrian Beltre (testicle jokes aside) has fans buzzing about the Red Sox defense and its ability (or inability) make up for the team’s obvious hitting woes. What I’m wondering is how sure are we that it will be good enough to make up for the lack of fire power? After some research, I believe the Sox are improved but not as much as you may think.

I’m no Sabermetrician but I do subscribe to the theory that defense should be quantified by more than fielding percentage. I love being able to watch a game and evaluate what’s going on without using solely statistics as a barometer.

Metrics such as Probabilistic Model of Range (PMR) don’t really do it for me because I don’t think it’s realistic to try to measure the difficulty of every play a fielder tries to make. There are just too many variables in play. While Mitchel Lichtman’s Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) from FanGraphs isn’t perfect, it’s probably the best tool for those of us caught between perceptions of how to rate defense.

The old-school thought process revolved around watching baseball and determining whether the play could have made a play on the ball, i.e. Bill James’ Range Factor. Statistics have evolved to the point where we know if the Giants’ right fielder was running toward a down-wind fart in the 8th inning of their July 18 game against the Padres. OK- maybe I’m exaggerating. Maybe I just wanted to make a fart joke.

If you want to browse through the explanation of UZR and the different contexts involved, take a look here. UZR provides some middle ground in that it offers us relevant statistics into whether the fielder was responsible for the ball hit toward them. The difference between this and something like PMR is that either the ball was in their “zone” or it wasn’t (albeit there are some flaws, such as not counting assists). PMR leaves too much subjectivity and too many variables.

These are obviously not new concepts (UZR came out in 2003) but I’ve just found it to be interesting to see how they pertain to the Sox, and specifically whether the new guys offer a substantial upgrade over Jason Bay, Mike Lowell and Alex Gonzalez.

I do like how UZR takes ballpark and pitchers’ tendencies into account but, here comes the old-school in me, I watched Jacoby Ellsbury play every day in 2009 and he is a good center fielder. Obviously, he’s not Willie Mays but I don’t agree his UZR rating of -18.6, which is the worst among center fielders in baseball. Sure, there were a few times where he took circuitous routes to the ball but I don’t feel as though there are many who can play much better in Fenway’s cavernous center field.

For the purposes of this discussion let’s take a look at the 2009 Red Sox vs. the newcomers’ UZR ratings.

The 2009 Red Sox by defensive position:

CF- Ellsbury -18.6 (last among CFs)
2B- Pedroia 9.8 (third)
*1B- Youkilis 5.7 (first)
C- Martinez N/A- There are no UZR ratings for catchers.
LF- Bay -13.0 (second-worst)
RF- Drew 10.5 (second)
3B- Lowell -11.1 (This would have been the worst had he qualified. Down from 10.4 in ’08. Yikes.)
SS- Gonzalez 6.7 (eighth)

*This was in 78 games at first. His UZR at third was -1.6. This could have been more concerning without the Beltre signing.

New to Fenway:
SS- Scutaro 0.9 (13th)
CF- Mike Cameron 10.0 (third)
3B- Beltre 14.3 (fourth)

At a glance, UZR indicates that Cameron (moving Ellsbury to LF) and Beltre are improvements over their predecessors and Scutaro is a downgrade from Gonzalez.

Once you take in all these statistics as well as the point that someone like Ellsbury is far better than his rating indicates, the Sox defense as a unit may not be that much different than last year. There are still four of the seven listed returning to a Sox defense that finished 16th in team UZR last year. Are Cameron, Beltre and Scutaro going to make enough of an impact to improve the defense to the point that it doesn’t matter the Sox can’t hit with RISP? I really don’t think so.

There is a clear upgrade in Beltre over Lowell. There’s no debating that point. Mike Cameron replacing Ellsbury is an improvement but I don’t believe he will field markedly better in Fenway Park. Ellsbury moving to left shouldn’t matter too much in the grand scheme of things because we all know left field in Fenway is a joke. Throw in the huge loss of Gonzalez’s defensive wizardry at short and this team has really only improved in one area total.

Take these stats with a grain of salt, obviously, but don’t completely buy into the fact that this team has gained the identity of defense-first.

Sox Decide to Piss Me Off and Sign Beltre

Adrian Beltre, who hit .265 last year, with a .304 OBP (Varitek's was .313), and only 8 homeruns, will now be the Red Sox third baseman, at least part-time. Why? I don't know. But the fact that the Sox are touting his defense speaks volumes as to how inadequate he truly is.

Thankfully, he's been signed to a 1 year deal. At least that's what all the reports are saying. That fits in with the whole "bridge" idea that the front office was talking about a few weeks ago.

So here's the Sox lineup these days:

1. CF Ellsbury
2. 2B Pedroia
3. C Martinez
4. 1B Youkilis
5. RF Drew
6. DH Ortiz
7. 3B Lowell/Beltre
8. LF Cameron
9. SS Scutaro

I can sum that up in one word: yikes

The Sox did score 872 runs last year, which was 3rd in baseball. But they struggled with clutch scoring, or scoring OnDemand as I call it. They'd put up 8 or 9 runs against crappy pitching, but struggle to get more than 1 or 2 against decent arms.

And this "bridge season" is starting to look like The Bridge of Death from The Holy Grail.



-The Commodore

Red Sox Out Of Race For Beltre

"The Red Sox essentially have pulled out of the running for free-agent third baseman Adrian Beltre, according to Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com.

Edes writes that the Red Sox have no plans to meet the asking price of agent Scott Boras and are not willing to wait around until late December or early January to see whether the price drops. Beltre is believed to be seeking a five-year deal worth $13 million-$15 million annually.

Edes cites a source who says the Red Sox are prepared to start the season with Kevin Youkilis at third base and Casey Kotchman at first (ESPN)."

In a way i am happy about this. I have 0 faith that Beltre will stay healthy, and he is totally not worth the money he is asking for. I am still holding out hope the Sox will go out and get a guy like Cabrera or Gonzalez, but if those don't pan out expect to start hearing names like Nick Johnson bouncing around...

Let's Face It. The Sox Are Getting Adrian Beltre

The Boston Red Sox appear ready to make a strong push for free agent third baseman Adrian Beltre.

John Tomase of the Boston Herald writes today that the Red Sox have "significant interest" in Beltre and that his initial asking price is believed to be five years and $65 million. Tomase warns that a more realistic financial goal for Beltre is about $10 million annually. ESPN

Yesterday I said, I hope the Sox don't sign anyone this offseason and save their money, but I would be O.K. with Beltre coming here. He is a game changing defensive player and him teamed up with Marco Scutaro would make a very solid ss/3rd base combo. Beltre does have some pop in his bat, and I'm not expecting him to put up his Dodgers numbers, but I think 25-30 homeruns is reasonable. He was a bit of a disappointment offensively in Seattle, but he didn't have the protection the Boston lineup has, so he could be in for a better season. Beltre is pretty much better than Mike Lowell in every part of the game, so Theo, he is the only signing this offseason.