Does BC Belong in the Tournament?

Yes. No. Maybe. Most people have them on the bubble, with their blowout win over Virginia Tech temporarily putting them in. But this post isn't about BC, or whether or not they should be in the tournament. To be honest, I don't follow college basketball closely enough to have an informed opinion on that.

This post is about the NCAA Tournament in general, and why it shouldn't expand. BC will help me demonstrate that point. Because they're not very good.

The Eagles occupy the middle of a very top-heavy and shallow ACC. Only 2 ACC teams are ranked. BC's 8-7 conference record is loaded with wins against Virginia and NC State. They did beat Virginia Tech twice, although they also lost to 9th place Miami. Twice.

Before that, they lost to Harvard and Yale. Thankfully, they didn't have to face Princeton, the top Ivy team. Princeton, by the way, only has one loss against Ivy League opponents, compared to BC's two.

BC might not even be the 2nd best team in New England (UConn being the best). They lost to URI, and they barely beat UMass and Providence. Apart from an early season, neutral site win over Texas A&M, they haven't beaten anyone impressive in or out of their conference.

They've got some good players, but no depth. And those good players all go through lengthy cold streaks. They're not awful. They're not great. If they make the tournament, it's not a joke. It's also not an injustice if they don't make it.

Finally, here's my point. If the tournament were expanded to 96 teams, BC would be a lock. They along with a few dozen other painfully mediocre teams. The field would be overly saturated by 10th place teams with .500 conference records.

There are plenty of good arguments to keep the NCAA field close to 64 teams. To me, though, this is the most alarming and convincing. This year, BC has been the quintessential bubble team. What would the bubble teams be like with 96 slots to fill? Wisconsin-Milwaukee? Long Beach State? Maybe NC State with their 15-14 overall and 5-10 conference records. The Wolfpack are 104th in RPI, and 54th strength of schedule. Why not them in the 96 team field?

-The Commodore

12 UNC Players Suspended

"Six North Carolina starters -- defensive tackle Marvin Austin, cornerback Charles Brown, cornerback Kendric Burney, wide receiver Greg Little, defensive end Michael McAdoo and defensive end Robert Quinn -- have been declared ineligible for Saturday's season-opening game against No. 21 LSU for "violating school and/or NCAA rules," the university announced Friday.

Six other players also will be withheld from the game while the NCAA's two-pronged investigation continues. Those six are: tailback Shaun Draughn, defensive end Linwan Euwell, safety Brian Gupton, tailback Ryan Houston, safety Da'Norris Searcy and safety Jonathan Smith.

The total number of games those 12 players are expected to miss has not yet been determined, as the NCAA investigates possible improper contact with agents, along with allegations of academic misconduct (ESPN)."

Sucks for UNC they have a really good team, but it looks like this could be a lost season. I am really pissed I couldn't get money on this game. I was staring at the line yesterday when it was sitting at -7 1/2 for LSU. I tried to put a bet in but by the time I did the line was gone. Sucks, because that would've been easy money. Anyways, LSU is going to take no mercy and kick the shit out of this UNC team.

ACC Football Preview

The ACC hasn't been too impressive in recent years. ACC representatives were 3-4 in Bowl Games. The struggles of Miami and Florida State are partially to blame. But this year might be the beginning of a resurgence.

1. MIAMI HURRICANES

The U is back, ladies and gentlemen. Jacory Harris looks to build on an impressive yet inconsistent (17 INTs) season. He has 4 excellent receivers to distribute the ball to, and some solid runningbacks to carry the mail. The defensive line is ferocious and deep. The DBs are also solid. There are still rough edges, and this team will still find ways to tokenly screw things up, but they're in the ACC, so it won't matter. They host Virginia Tech in November, so i'm giving the Hurricanes the edge to win the Coastal Division, which is by far the superior grouping in the ACC.

Prediction: 10-2, ACC Coastal Division winner, ACC Championship winner

Key Games:
9/11 @ Ohio State
9/23 @ Pittsburgh
10/2 @ Clemson
10/9 vs. Florida State
11/13 @ Georgia Tech
11/20 vs. Virginia Tech

2. VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES

The Hokies return 7 offensive starters, including talented QB Tyrod Taylor, a talented stable of WRs, and last but not least: Ryan Williams, who ran for 1,655 yards in '09, scoring 21 TDs. Virginia Tech finally has an offense again. However, their defense only returns 3 starters, 1 each on the D-Line, at LB and in the defensive backfield. And the new faces aren't that impressive, either. Thankfully for Tech, they're in the ACC, and reloading years can still be quite successful.

Prediction: 10-2, 2nd in Coastal Division

Key Games:
9/6 vs. Boise State (in Landover, MD)
11/4 vs. Georgia Tech
11/20 @ Miami

3. GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS

Don't forget that GT won the ACC last year. The Yellow Jackets averaged 295.4 rushing yards per game last year. They lost a few backs to graduation, but that's like taking a gallon of water out of the ocean, there's plenty more RBs where those came from. Unfortunately, the Yellow Jackets have some big leaks. Their defense couldn't make stops, their QB was erratic, and their special teams were a liability. Hiring Al Groh as a defensive coordinator should help the defense. It'd be hard to make that worse. Tech will be good, just not good enough to beat Miami or Virginia Tech.

Prediction: 9-3, 3rd in Coastal Division

Key Games:
10/23 @ Clemson
11/4 @ Virginia Tech
11/13 vs. Miami
11/27 @ Georgia

4. FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES

Florida State will cruise to an Atlantic Division title. Because who can contend with them? BC? Clemson? HA! The Seminoles will feature an experienced, balanced offense led by QB Christian Ponder. Their defense was awful last year, allowing 21+ points in 12 of 13 games (they held Jacksonville State to 9). They've changed their defensive coaching staff, adding Mark Stoops as defensive coordinator. They play in a weak division, but have some tough non-conference opponents.

Prediction: 8-4, ACC Atlantic Division winner

Key Games:
9/11 @ Oklahoma
9/18 vs. BYU
10/9 @ Miami
11/13 vs. Clemson
11/27 vs. Florida

The rest of the conference is listed alphabetically...

BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES

BC has especially strong strengths, and especially weak weaknesses. RB Montel Harris returns after a 1,457 yard, 14 TD sophomore season. The Eagles also boast one of the best LB corps in the country with Mark Herzlich slated to return. However, their receivers are inadequate. They'll miss Rich Gunnell. And QB David Shinksie struggles against competent defenses.

Prediction: 7-5

CLEMSON TIGERS

No more CJ Spiller for Clemson. No Jacoby Ford either. The Tigers will not be able to replace the 32 TDs and 2,616 yards from scrimmage these two provided. They will have some decent RBs, but they need one of them to emerge as a true #1. They have almost no offense. Their defense is solid, with a superb D-Line, but it's not good enough to win games on its own.

Prediction: 7-5

DUKE BLUE DEVILS

Duke has a solid passing game, but absolutely no rushing game whatsoever. The Blue Devils averaged 63.5 yards/game last year, and 2.3 per carry. Their defense is also quite bland. Then again, it's Duke. They're no longer utter pushovers, no longer guaranteed wins for opponents.

Prediction: 3-9

MARYLAND TERRAPINS

The Terps have some solid skill players on offense, but lack a line to protect their QB or make holes for their RBs. Their defense allows big plays, and gets a little too blitz-happy. Head coach Ralph Friedgen would be gone if not for a $4 million buyout that the athletic department didn't want to play. They're one of the worst teams in the country and didn't do much to improve. They were 2-10 in '09, with one of those wins coming against James Madison... in overtime.

Prediction: 4-8

NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS

People expect to see something from UNC this season, but not me. They return 9 starters from the 13th best scoring defense in the country. But they also return 9 starters from the 83rd ranked scoring offense. They have future NFL guys like DE Robert Quinn, who registered 11 sacks last year. But their offense is a joke. QB TJ Yates threw 14 TDs last season, along with 15 INTs. They'll compete, and could upset a big team in the Coastal Division, but don't expect them contending.

Prediction: 7-5

NC STATE WOLFPACK

NCSU scored a nice 30.7 points per game last year. But they allowed 31.2 per game. And 110 of their 368 total points came against Murray State and Gardner-Webb. So their offense isn't as good as it might seem. If QB Russell Wilson decides to play football (he was drafted by the Rockies), then NCSU might win some games. Otherwise, they're completely screwed.

Prediction: 5-7

VIRGINIA CAVALIERS

New coach Mike London inherits Al Groh's mess. UVA are one of the worst programs in college football. They lost to William & Mary last year. They were 103rd in scoring offense, 68th in scoring defense. London will bring things back to basics, which should suit his players better. But he has absolutely no talent to work with at all. The November 13th meeting between Virginia and Maryland will be an abomination to the game of football, and should be boycotted.

Prediction: 4-8 (they play Richmond and VMI).

WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS

With the departure of Riley Skinner, there's a 4 way competition for the QB spot. The Deacons boast some good WRs and dependable backs, so they might select a speedy QB and go with an option offense. That wouldn't be a bad idea, and it could do well in the Atlantic Division. They have some defensive ends that can pressure opposing QBs, but they're weak up the middle on defense. Token ACC team here.

Prediction: 6-6

-The Commodore

Kiper and McShay Think The Patriots Will Pick...

Ricky Sapp from Clemson. I like their reasoning behind this pick. Both of them state that the Patriots biggest problem is getting pressure on the QB, and Sapp seems to have a nose for that sort of thing. To make him even more valuable he is good in the 3 point stance as well as being upright. Basically he could be very much like Willie McGinest, which the Patriots have been missing for awhile, a guy who can play on the line as well as drop back in coverage.

This guy is a freak, and I am really starting to get high on him, but the Patriots always pick someone that wasn't even on anyone's radar, so who really knows...

BC 35, Central Michigan 10

I know what the haters will say. "Bowl Eligibility isn't a big deal, not for a big program, and BC thinks they have a big program." Well I'm a BC fan, and we most certainly DO NOT have a big program. We have a solid, middle class kind of program. And BC wasn't supposed to reach bowl eligibility this year, not according to many ACC predictors. But they're 6-3, with 3 not-so-tough conference games left to play (@ Virginia, vs. UNC, @ Maryland). If they win those 3, and Clemson loses an ACC game, then the Eagles go to the ACC Championship for the 3rd straight year.

Against CMU, Montel Harris returned with a vengeance. He was stifled in the Notre Dame game, but against the Chippewas he put up 136 yards and scored 2 TDs. He's already surpassed his numbers from last year. He's got 930 yards with 3 games left to play. And he's got 13 TDs, compared to just 5 last season.

The Eagles travel to Charlottesville to take on the 3-5 Virginia Cavaliers.

-The Commodore

The ACC is Weak

A lot of people argued for an eighth ACC team before the brackets came out. The conference ended up with seven bids and in hindsight, maybe that was five too many.

So far the ACC is 3-5 with five teams (assuming Maryland can't erase a 20 point deficit against Memphis) bounced. Only Duke and UNC have represented the conference well. Wake was soundly beaten by a 13 seed, Clemson and BC went down to 10 seeds and FSU lost to a 12. None of their performances were particularly inspiring, especially BC's.

BC chokes every year no matter where they are seeded and it is safe to say that FSU gagged last night. Wake was simply out played while Clemson lost in a close game where they had a chance to tie it at the buzzer.

This is supposed to be one of the top two conferences in college ball yet they are playing more like the A10. Meanwhile, the Big 12 and the Big East have only lost a team each so far. We knew the Big East was good but who expected this out of the Big 12?

So what happened? Was the ACC overrated all year long or did everybody just choke come tourney time? Probably a combination of the two because there is some real talent in the league top to bottom. Games in conference always turn into dog fights and there were few blowouts all season. Their record out of conference is respectable as well. They dominate the Big Ten every single season in the ACC/BigTen Challenge and the seven teams that got into the dance this year won over 90% of their out of conference games.

At the end of the day, only one team can win it all and at this point, the ACC has just a good a shot of producing the national champ as the Big East does. Should UNC win it all, the conference's awful showing will be largely forgotten but hopefully the selection committee is paying close attention. Next year, let's not just rubber stamp six, seven or eight teams solely because of the ACC's reputation.

ACC Tournament Preview

It's that time of year again. The appetizer to March Madness' main course: Conference Tournaments...

Boston College fell short of securing a 1st round bye in the ACC tourney, although they do have a cupcake first round opponent in Virginia. Here are the games and my guaranteed to be wrong predictions...

ROUND 1:
#8 Virginia Tech vs. #9 Miami
Both these teams have something to prove to the Selection Committee. Virginia Tech beat Miami in OT during the regular season, but the Hokies have been ice cold since then, losing 6 of their last 7, and 8 of 11. Give this one to the Hurricanes.

#5 Clemson vs. #12 Georgia Tech
Clemson is ranked 18th in the country, and should demolish the Yellow Jackets, who were a dismal 2-14 in the ACC.



#7 Maryland vs. #10 NC State
Maryland was an NCAA bubble team until losing 4 of their last 6, but one of those 2 that they won was against NC State. The Terps might be playing with the illusion that they have a shot at the Dance, the Wolfpack would have to be blind to think that. Maryland wins this one.

ROUND 2:
#9 Miami vs. #1 North Carolina
UNC is the best team in the country. It's a fact. They'll be challenged by the national powerhouses in the NCAAs, but the ACC tournament is theirs to lose. They'll destroy Miami, who they beat twice in the regular season.



#5 Clemson vs. #4 Florida State
FSU has been a Jekyl & Hyde team this year. They beat Clemson twice, yet lost to Boston College and Northwestern. Despite sweeping the season series, I think the Seminoles lose to Clemson in a close game. But here's a picture of FSU alum Jenn Sterger anyway:



#7 Maryland vs. #2 Wake Forest
I'm feeling an upset here. Wake Forest is ranked 9th in the country, and they beat Maryland in their sole meeting. But that was a 65-63 contest. And if NC State, Georgia Tech, and Miami can upset the Demon Deacons, why not Maryland?

#6 Boston College vs. #3 Duke
BC can blame themselves for the 6 seed and a date with Duke instead of Florida State or a bye. Two losses to Miami, and a recent loss to NC State pushed the Eagles down to 6th in the ACC. Duke fell to BC in February, but this is March, the game is in Atlanta, and this is Duke. Blue Devils pull away after a closely fought game.

SEMIFINALS:
#5 Clemson vs. #1 North Carolina
The Tar Heels ripped Clemson apart 94-70 in January. The same sad story will be told in March.



#3 Duke vs. #7 Maryland
Maryland's miraculous run comes to an end here. Duke beat the Terps 85-44, then 78-67. That's a combined margin of victory of 52. Maryland will be lucky to score that many in this game.

FINAL:
#1 North Carolina vs. #3 Duke
UNC beats Duke... again. Because Duke sucks and blows, defying the laws of physics.

-The Commodore

Ass Rape Wednesday on ESPN

I do not know if ESPN has trademarked this yet but if not, I want royalties. Hell they have a name for every other day of the week and given the ACC action shown on the ESPN family of networks, it seems to fit.

In the early game, Miami stomped Wake Forest in Miami. The margin of victory was 25. Wake was coming off a buzzer beating loss to Georgia Tech on Saturday and you will no doubt here the team is still hungover from their win against Duke a week ago tonight. Maybe. But Miami beat their ass flat out.

In the late game, Clemson dispatched Duke with the ease of a late November win. Despite only being down 12 at half, Duke was never in this game. Had you not seen them play all year, you would have sworn nobody has ever run full court pressure against them. They turned the ball over on consecutive in-bound plays 4 or 5 times. That's inexcusable at a big time D1 program. The final margin in this one was 27.

Jay Bilas made the point at the end that Duke won't be needing any balls at their next practice. I hope he's right. I hope K runs those fagots into the ground. They better shed some blood between now and Friday...and not just from the anal tears the Tigers gave them.

It was easy to laugh when the Big Least was beating up on themselves and it looked like even though they would get 9 teams in, only 3 were legit. For a second, it seemed like the ACC had regained its throne. Now, they are facing the same difficulties with a mess at the top down through the middle. At least the Big East has Penn, UConn and Louisville. The ACC has UNC and maybe Clemson.

BC Wins, But a Rough Day for the ACC

Boston College opened their season with a cupcake game on the road. The Golden Flashes of Kent State finished 2007 with seven straight losses. Even with all the talent BC lost from last season, they were more than a match for the Flashes.

The Eagles took a 14-0 lead late in the 1st quarter. In what will be quite different from last year's team, the rushing game led the offense. Five different players combined for 47 carries and 230 yards. Quarterback Chris Cane only threw the ball 18 times, and averaged more yards per carry (6.7) than yards per pass attempt (5.9). Crane also ran for two scores, but didn't throw for one.

BC used junior Jeff Smith, freshman Josh Haden, and sophomore James McCluskey for a bulk of their carries. Smith had 74 yards on 11 carries and a 42 yard TD, Haden had 66 on 15, McCluskey had 36 on 8.



BC was part of a wider trend in the ACC. The ACC teams who faced very weak opposition, cruised to victory. Every ACC team that faced a team with any quality whatsoever, lost.

On Thursday, South Carolina pummeled Tom O'Brien and NC State. Saturday, #17 Virginia Tech fell 27-22 to East Carolina in Charlotte. Ironically, the Hokies were beaten by a blocked punt returned for a score with 1:52 left in the game.

#2 Southern Cal obliterated Virginia 52-7. Few expected the Cavliers would win, but I think most people expected them to put up more of a fight. It wouldv'e been nice if UVA had wiped the grin of this schmuck's face...



#9 Clemson was dominated by #24 Alabama 34-10 in the Georgia Dome. The Tigers wound up with 0 rushing yards (remember, in college ball, sacks count as rushes), and possessed the ball for 18:47. Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide put up 419 yards of offense, including 239 on the ground.



Boston College hosts Georgia Tech next Saturday.

-The Commodore

ACC Breakdown

1. Virginia Tech:
I know a lot of people have Clemson being the top team in the ACC but I beg to differ. After an improbably year last year with an 11-3 overall record and a 7-1 conference record, I expect Virginia Tech to be even better this year. Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor were sharing time at Quarterback, but I like Taylor better. Taylor was 5-0 last year as a starter and believe he will be the next big V-Tech QB.

2. Clemson:
I think Clemson has all the opportunity in the world to compete and maybe win the ACC title. Last year Clemson finished with a 9-4 record, but unlike many teams, has all of their stars coming back. Cullen Harper is returning after a 27 touchdown campaign last year and stud running back James Davis who racked up 1,723 all-purpose yards last year. Those two coming back means a very competitive team.

3. Wake Forest:
I'm not completely sold on Wake Forest but people are so that is the only reason I have them this high. Quarterback Riley Skinner is decent, but plays not to lose games rather than to win them. Also their running back situation is completely up in the air but it looks like the job will go to sophomore Josh Adams, before getting injured he ran for 953 yards.

4. North Carolina:
T.J. Yates is returning after a decent season passing for a single-season school record 2,655 yards and 14 touchdowns and ran for a couple of more scores. After Yates their is no one that sticks out.

5. Florida State:
Bobby Bowden is entering a real make or break year at Florida State, despite his past success', it seems the school is getting tired of his legend. Although Bowden will go with senior Drew Weatherford he should give the nod to incoming freshman EJ Manuel. I have played NCAA 09 and based on that, I can tell EJ Manuel is the real deal.

6. Boston College:
Chris Crane is taking over for Matt Ryan. That is not going to be easy to do. However, Boston College always seems to rebound after losing key players (Hasselbecks, Willie Green, Derrick Knight, etc.) Josh Haden is supposed to take over for L.V. Whitworth and Andre Callender. Haden was ranked number 3 for all purpose backs in the country.

Best of the rest
7. Miami
8. Maryland
9. Virginia
10. Georgia Tech
11. NC State
12. Duke