College Football Picks: Week 9

It was an awful week for me, as my picks were 3-6. I had some close calls, but this isn't horseshoes. My record against the spread is now an unremarkable 19-16-2. So let's hope as conference play continues, I can go on a nice run heading into the bowl games. Here are my picks for this week in college football. I took the odds from Doc's Sports Service.

Thursday 7:30 PM - ESPN
#16 Florida State Seminoles @ NC State Wolfpack
I have to take the Noles -3.5 here. The ACC seems to produce a contender, then reduce them to fraud shortly thereafter. And NC State has been pretty good this year. But FSU is having a nice rebound season. FSU -3.5



Friday 8:00 PM - ESPN2
West Virginia Mountaineers @ UConn Huskies
WVU has fallen off a bit, and the game is in Storrs. But I've picked UConn like three times already this season, and lost every time. So it's time for the Huskies to make me money. West Virginia -6.5.



All these games are on Saturday:

12:00 PM - ESPN3
Clemson Tigers @ BC Eagles
Boston College has a decent defense, but has no offensive capabilities whatsoever. They'll probably put up a good fight against Clemson, but I think the Tigers win, and cover the 7 point spread. Clemson -7.



12:00 PM
Northwestern Wildcats @ Indiana Hoosiers
I'll take Northwestern -3, and yes, I know I'm picking lots of road favorites so far. So what?

3:30 PM - ABC
#6 Missouri Tigers @ #14 Nebraska Cornhuskers
It's kind of hard to believe that this game will be the most important Big XII clash of the year, maybe even more important than the Conference title game. I'm taking Mizzou +7.5. Even if Nebraska wins, they'll win close in a defensive struggle.

3:30 PM - CBS
Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs (Jacksonville, FL)
Remember when this game meant something? I'll take the Gators +3, because Georgia sucks.



3:30 PM - ESPNU
Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ Maryland Terrapins
WFU are 2-5, 1-3 in ACC play, have lost 5 straight, and haven't won a road game all season. I'll take Maryland -5.5.





6:00 PM - ESPN2
#1 Auburn Tigers @ Ole Miss Rebels
Look, I know that #1 teams have lost three straight weeks, all on the road. And here's the #1 team on the road. But Ole Miss isn't Missouri, and Oxford, Mississippi isn't Madison, Wisconsin. I'll take Auburn -7.



7:00 PM - Versus
#13 Stanford Cardinal @ Washington Huskies
This is a pure gut-feeling pick. Stanford's on the road, Washington's been solid, and the spread's not bad. Washington +7.5.



8:00 PM - ABC
#2 Oregon Ducks @ USC Trojans
Oregon should be #1. And they're on the road. Against a tough opponent. In a tough place to play. So according to the trend of the last few weeks, they should lose. USC +7.



-The Commodore

College Football Picks: Week 8

Last weekend my picks went 6-1, buoying my season record (against the spread) to 16-10-2. There are a few titanic clashes this Saturday, but there are also many seemingly smaller games that will have major implications within conferences. This week, I got my odds from Doc's Sports Services. All these games are on Saturday.

12:00 PM - ESPN
#7 Michigan State Spartans @ Northwestern Wildcats
This just feels like one of those crazy games. There's no logical reasoning for it, but I feel as though MSU has absolutely no shot to win this game. Northwestern +5.5.

3:30 PM - CBS
#6 LSU Tigers @ #4 Auburn Tigers
Biggest game of the day as two 7-0 SEC West contenders meet. I'm going with LSU +6, but mainly because I think it will be a close game. Also, Auburn's going to get unlucky, and one of these near-losses will become a loss.



3:30 PM - ABC
#16 Nebraska Cornhuskers @ #14 Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma State has yet to struggle on offense. Oklahoma State has yet to meet a defense like Nebraska's. Nebraska -5.5.



3:30 PM - ABC/ESPN
#13 Wisconsin Badgers @ #15 Iowa Hawkeyes
The hangover of a big win has been well-documented the last two seasons. That, and the game being in Iowa, is why I'm taking the Hawkeyes -5.5 I'd prefer a spread below 4, and in real life I might avoid this one. But less than a TD is enough for me.



3:30 PM - ESPNU
UConn Huskies @ Louisville Cardinals
I'm taking UConn +1 here. I might be the last person in the country that still thinks they're a decent team. But Louisville is utter garbage.



7:30 PM - ESPN2
UNC Tar Heels @ Miami Hurricanes
The U has been very inconsistent this year. You can classify them as a disappointment, but also as a pleasant surprise. They're still very much in contention to win their Division. They should handle the controversy-plagued Heels. Miami -6.5



7:30 PM - ESPN 3
Georgia Bulldogs @ Kentucky Wildcats
UGA sucks. Yet somehow, they're the favorites against 4-3 Kentucky, in Lexington. I'm taking UK +4.



8:00 PM - ABC
#1 Oklahoma Sooners @ #11 Missouri Tigers
I'm not entirely confident. #1 teams seem to be cursed. Mizzou is good. OU hasn't impressed me that much. And the game is in Columbia. That being said, I'll take the #1 team in the country -3 pretty much every time.



10:15 PM - ESPN
Washington Huskies @ #18 Arizona Wildcats
I just don't think Washington is very good. Arizona -6.5.



-The Commodore

College Football Picks: Week 7

I didn't have any picks last week as I was on vacation. But two weeks ago, I went 4-6-1, which drops my yearly record against the spread to 10-9-2. It's time for me to rebound. As usual, I'll be using the spreads found at VegasInsider.com

Thursday - 7:30 PM - ESPN
South Florida Bulls @ #25 West Virginia Moutnaineers
WVU are the closest thing to a legit team in the Big East. South Florida lost to Syracuse, and struggled to put up points. I'm taking WVU -10.



All other games are on Saturday...

12:00 PM - ESPN3
Pitt Panthers @ Syracuse Orange
This is a pick game, and I'm picking Pitt. Syracuse may be 4-1, but two of those wins came against Maine and Colgate. Pitt has disappointed so far, but it's still Syracuse.



12:00 PM - ESPN2
Maryland Terrapins @ Clemson Tigers
Clemson is favored by over two touchdowns. Granted, they're at home. They're also 2-3, and 0-2 in ACC play. The spread's too juicy, I'm taking Maryland, +15.



12:00 PM - BigTen Network
Illinois Fighting Illini @ #13 Michigan State Spartans
The undefeated Spartans host a 3-2 team, and somehow the spread is only 7 points. MSU -7.



3:30 PM
California Golden Bears @ USC Trojans
OK, so USC isn't good unless they pay their players. But guess what, Cal isn't good either. I'm taking the men of Troy -2.5



3:30 PM - ABC
Texas Longhorns @ #5 Nebraska Cornhuskers
Under Mack Brown, Texas has never lost 3 straight. While I think they'll accomplish this feat on Saturday, they won't do it by many points. Nebraska is good, but won't score enough to cover the spread. They'll thoroughly dominate the game, but won't cover the 9.5. Longhorns +9.5



7:00 PM
Baylor Bears @ Colorado Buffaloes
A pair of half-decent Big XII teams. But I'll sat Baylor is 55% decent, and I'm taking BU -1.



-The Commodore

College Football Picks: Week 4

I'm 7-6 on the season, but I'm going to start something different for this week. I'm going to pick based on the spread. I'm taking the spreads from VegasInsider.com.

Thursday - 7:30 PM - ESPN
#19 Miami Hurricanes @ Pitt Panthers.
I'm taking the Canes -3.5. Pittsburgh just doesn't have the athleticism to keep up with Miami. Now, The U is very inconsistent, and I wouldn't take this pick to the bank. But I'll take inconsistent athleticism with a 3.5 point spread any day of the week. Even Thursday.



Friday - 8:00 PM - ESPN
#4 TCU Horned Frogs @ SMU Mustangs
I'll take Texas Christian -17.5 against a crappy SMU team. The Hornded Frogs can score some points, but more importantly, they don't allow many. All they'll need is 31+ from their offense in order to comfortably cover.



The remainder of these games are on Saturday...

3:30 PM - Big Ten Network
Temple Owls @ #23 Penn State Nittany Lions
I don't know much about Temple. I know they beat UConn. And I know PSU hasn't been stellar. But the spread is only 13 points, and Penn State's at home. PSU -13.



3:30 PM - CBS
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide @ #10 Arkansas Razorbacks
This spread opened at 4, then it increased to 7. Considering this is in Fayeteville, I'm going to have to take Arkansas +7.5. Anything less, especially 4, and I'd take Alabama. The Tide will win this game, just not by 8 points.



3:30 PM - NBC
#16 Stanford @ Notre Dame
Stanford -4.5. Notre Dame must have a lot of fans, because it's a joke that they're less than a touchdown underdogs. I know you have a California team playing in South Bend, but you also have a crappy team playing in South Bend that goes by the name of Notre Dame.



7:45 PM - ESPN
#12 South Carolina Gamecocks @ #17 Auburn Tigers
Every part of my brain is telling me to take Auburn, at home, on a Saturday night. They've proven they can win close games, and they've done nothing much wrong so far. But my gut is going with South Carolina +3.



8:00 PM - ABC
#24 Oregon State Beavers @ #3 Boise State Broncos
I'm taking OSU +18. I think this game will feature lots of offense from both sides. Oregon State will never be a threat, but they'll be within 2 touchdowns at the final whistle.



9:00 PM - ESPN2
#22 West Virginia Mountaineers @ #15 LSU Tigers
I'm taking WVU +9.5. Granted, it's a night game in Baton Rouge. Granted, the Mountaineers are "Big East powers," which is like a country bragging about being a "Central African power." It's just not that impressive. That being said, WVU is athletic, and should at least stay in this game.



10:30 PM
#5 Oregon Ducks @ Arizona State Sun Devils
I'm taking Oregon -11. How could you not? I know it's early, and their opponents have been crappy, but the Ducks have outscored opponents by an average of 58 points per game. So I'm taking them -11 against a poor team.



-The Commodore

College Football Picks: Week 3

I didn't make any picks in Week 2, I was away. Week 3 doesn't feature many exciting matchups. But the most classic college games usually come from the matches you'd least expect. I was 3-3 in Week 1. Here are my selections for Week 3:

All games are on Saturday

12:00PM - ESPN
#12 Arkansas Razorbacks @ Georgia Bulldogs
I'm taking UGA simply because the game is in Athens. I think Arkansas is a great team, but winning on the road in the SEC is no picnic. My gut's saying Go Dawgs! Georgia wins 31-27.



12:00 PM
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ North Carolina Tar Heels
Both teams have fallen short of expectations. Both teams have fallen out of the rankings. UNC has some solid talent, and I'm picking them to win a key game here. UNC 20, GT 14. But I'm posting a picture of a Georgia Tech girl because it's wicked hot.



12:00 PM - ESPNU
Maryland Terrapins @ #21 West Virginia Mountaineers
I'm not impressed by WVU. They barely beat Marshall, and that was thanks to several mistakes from the Herd. Maryland is tough to gauge. They could be good, could be bad. I think West Virginia is undisciplined, and will take this game too lightly. Terps win 28-27.



3:30 PM - ESPNU
BYU Cougars @ Florida State Seminoles
Both teams are looking to get back on track here. BYU was bombed by Air Force, FSU was smoked by the Sooners. I could go either way on this game. I think Florida State has the talent to win what's a vital game for both teams. FSU 38, BYU 31.



7:00 PM - ESPN
Clemson Tigers @ #16 Auburn Tigers
Auburn escaped Mississippi State by the skin of their teeth. But Clemson really doesn't have any teeth. It's kind of sad, but this will serve as a tune-up game for Auburn. AU hosts that other team from South Carolina (the Gamecocks) in two weeks. That other team is ranked. Clemson keeps it close, but will never be a true threat. Auburn 17, Clemson 10.



8:00 PM - ABC
Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Michigan State Spartans
Notre Dame sucks. MSU is actually half-decent. Easy to pick the Spartans here.



10:30 PM - ESPN
#9 Iowa Hawkeyes @ #24 Arizona Wildcats
I still think Iowa will win the Big Ten. But this is a rough trip for them. Arizona has been a pleasant surprise, and will squeeze one out. Arizona 21, Iowa 17.



-The Commodore

College Football Picks: Week 1

It starts tonight. Unfortunately, college football's regular season might be better than its postseason. There aren't many great games this weekend, with most of the Top 25 playing the likes of Florida A&M, Eastern Illinois, Tennessee Tech, and Samford. But there are a few really interesting matchups to enjoy. Here are my picks for Week 1:

Tonight - 8:30pm - Versus
#15 Pitt @ Utah
This is an early test for the Panthers. Utah's lost some talent, but they've still won 34 of their last 37 games. I'll give credit to Pitt for making the trip to Salt Lake City. I'll also give them credit for the win.

Pitt wins 27-17

Saturday - 3:30pm - ABC
UConn @ Michigan
The Huskies are my pick to win the Big East. And Michigan sucks. UConn squeezes a win from Ann Arbor.

UConn wins 30-24

Saturday - 7:45pm - ESPN
#24 Oregon State vs. #6 TCU (in Arlington, TX)
This is a big test for both teams. TCU has BCS aspirations again. So does Oregon State. Both teams are good, but Oregon State's lack of defense will be their undoing.

TCU wins 35-24



Saturday - 8:00pm - ABC
#21 LSU vs. #18 North Carolina (in Atlanta, GA)
UNC has lots of potential to win the ACC this year. Playing LSU is a nice little test. The same can be said for LSU. I'm unsure about this one, but when in doubt, pick the SEC to win every time. Especially in the Georgia Dome.

LSU wins 24-20



Monday - 4:00pm - ESPN
Navy vs. Maryland (in Baltimore, MD)
Maryland has some positive buzz, but Navy will squash that rumor before it builds up any momentum. I love Navy's box scores, with all the rushing, and the 10 passes thrown. That's college football, baby.



Monday - 8:00pm - ESPN
#3 Boise State vs. #10 Virginia Tech (in Landover, MD)
How often does the nation's college football attention fall squarely on Maryland? Answer: when two teams from outside of Maryland play in Landover. I think VT is just slightly overrated. Boise State is not.

Boise State wins 28-24



-The Commodore

College Bowl Picks/Previews: Part IX

We come to the end of the season, the National Title Game.

Thursday 1/7 - 8:00PM - ABC
BCS National Championship Game - Pasadena, CA
#2 Texas Longhorns vs. #1 Alabama Crimson Tide
The last time the title was decided at the Rose Bowl, it was a #2 Texas team that won it all over an undefeated team that boasted the Heisman Winner. Will history repeat itself?

Alabama has a running game and a stout defense. Texas has Colt McCoy and is solid all around. This should be a tight, field-position kind of football game. And both teams have excelled at extracting wins out of these kinds of close contests.



Alabama beat #11 Virginia Tech to start the season, they beat #12 LSU, and they crushed #5 Florida. They've been in big games against tough opponents, and they've found ways to win. Mark Ingram amassed 150 yards against Va-Tech, 144 against LSU, and 113 against Florida. He's a big-stage back.



Texas' schedule was much easier. They beat #19 Oklahoma State, and #22 Nebraska. But neither of those games were in Austin. Nobody in the Big XII came close to matching Texas. And if it weren't for their preseason ranking of 2, there would've been more controversy about their selection into this game.

But why were they ranked 2nd back in August? It was because they returned most of their team from the year before, a team that went 12-1. This is a talented bunch, and more importantly, a focused group of players. Mack Brown has these guys in-line and all striving for the same thing.



Then there's the X-factor: the venue. The 93,000 fans that fill the Rose Bowl will probably be an even split of burnt orange and crimson & cream. But this is familiar territory for Texas. The Longhorns are the only team besides USC to win the Rose Bowl since 2003. They've won there twice. And while no current Texas players were there, plenty of coaches and other personnel were, and this familiarity can help breed a sense of comfort, and even confidence.

I think Alabama struggles to score on Texas' defense. I think the Longhorns take a slim lead, Bama makes a few mistakes, and the Longhorns pull away. The Tide will make a comeback bid, make things close, but run out of time.

Texas 27, Alabama 24







-The Commodore

College Bowl Picks/Previews Part VIII

These are the picks for the Bowls Games leading up to the big one on Thursday. We'll have the preview for that one on Thursday morning.

Monday 1/4 - 8:00PM - Fox
Fiesta Bowl - Glendale, AZ
#6 Boise State Broncos vs. #4 TCU Horned Frogs
The BCS, a.k.a. the Bullshit Conspiracy Shenanigans. Instead of testing the WAC and Mountain West Champions against a worthy opponent like Florida, instead of risking the embarrassment of a WAC or MWC team crushing the Big East or ACC Champion, these two teams get to play each other, and the BCS gets to save itself while simultaneously being applauded for its apparent inclusiveness. One of these teams will have a loss after this game. The other won't be applauded like Boise State was when they beat Oklahoma, or like Utah was when they beat Bama. After all, it's just another win over a non-BCS team. Who cares?

TCU is the real deal, and is probably the 3rd or 2nd best team in the country. It'll be a good show, but TCU prevails.



Tuesday 1/5 - 8:00PM - Fox
Orange Bowl - Miami, FL
#10 Iowa Hawkeyes vs. #9 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
The BCS wanted to save these teams. Nothing against them, but TCU and probably Boise State too, would have vanquished them with ease. Particularly Iowa, who might be the worst #10 team in history. Georgia Tech will run circles (about 300 yards worth of circles) around Iowa and win a big one for the ACC.



Wednesday 1/6 - 7:00PM
GMAC Bowl - Mobile, AL
Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Troy Trojans
Before you decide not to watch this game, realize this: both teams went undefeated in their conference. Overall, CMU was 11-2 and Troy was 9-3. These are solid "mid-major" teams here. CMU lost to Arizona and BC, both on the road. CMU is also the best team in Michigan (they beat MSU 29-27 in East Lansing). I don't know much about Troy, so I'll go with the Chippewas.



National Championship Game preview and pick tomorrow morning.

-The Commodore