Saturday morning, there didn't seem like there would be many interesting games. That notion was quickly proven wrong. And thank God for cable and the unbelievable amount of college football games available every Saturday on nearly a dozen different channels.
Ten lessons from Week 8:
#1 Georgia Tech Will Win the ACC
Their one loss came to Miami, but the Yellow Jackets can send "Thank You" cards 120 miles northeast to Clemson, SC, because the Tigers beat the Canes, giving Georgia Tech complete control over their conference destiny. If they beat Wake Forest and Duke, they're in the ACC Championship, and will probably face the afore-mentioned Clemson.
#2 Cincinnati Will Be Tested
The Bearcats slugged Louisville 41-10, but their remaining schedule is looking tougher and tougher. They host UConn on November 7th. The Huskies gave WVU a challenge. Then West Virginia on the 13th, and @ Pittsburgh on December 5th. Pitt is 15th in the BCS standings, WVU is 21st. The bad news is Cincy's Big East title will be hard to win. The good news is that quality opponents=quality wins. Quality wins sometimes=national title bid.
#3 The Big XII North Should Forfeit All Remaining Games
Texas went up to Columbia and crushed Mizzou. Oklahoma went up to Lawrence and toyed around with the Jayhawks. Nebraska had been a favorite to win the division, but they lost at home to lowly Iowa State. Somehow, some way, people are still voting for Kansas in both polls.
#4 Notre Dame is Going to a BCS Bowl, Unfortunately
This really pisses me off. Notre Dame sucks. Their defense has no edge to it, their offense is boring, and their schedule has more cupcakes than an average Charlie Weis breakfast. They needed BC to turn the ball over 5 times in order to beat them 20-16. ND supporters will point to how close they played USC, while simultaneously ignoring how close they played BC, MSU, Purdue, and Washington. Hopefully Pitt derails them on November 14th.
#5 Bama=Magic
It's that simple, folks. Alabama was supposed to lose to Tennessee, and probably crush their National Title aspirations. This had "Trap Game" written all over it, sandwiched between games against South Carolina and LSU. Once Bama gets by the Bayou Bengals next week (game is in Tuscaloosa, the Tide haven't lost in Tuscaloosa since November of '07), they have Mississippi State, Chattanooga, and Auburn.
#6 Miami Just Isn't Ready
The Hurricanes fell in OT to Clemson, 40-37. They did beat Georgia Tech and Oklahoma, but they also lost to Virginia Tech. They need lots of help to win their division, and even more help to secure a BCS at-large bid. But they can easily finish with 10 wins and a nice New Years Bowl game to play, which is more than what was expected of them.
#7 Iowa Are Frauds
One or two close wins and you're a team of destiny. But 5 and you're simply taunting the football gods. Iowa is only 4 games away from a Big Ten title, and possibly a National Title berth. If they beat Ohio State on November 17th (in Columbus), then they'll have legitimacy. If not, they'll be the worst 1 loss team in a BCS conference.
#8 LSU Has More Control Than You Might Think
LSU lost a close one to Florida, and that's it. They play Alabama on the 7th, and #25 Ole Miss a few weeks later. If they beat Bama, they can win the SEC West. If they then beat Florida in the SEC Championship, it'll be hard to deny them a shot at the National Title. Again, there's a lot of "ifs" in this scenario, but LSU has control over all of them.
#9 TCU is for Real
The Frogs went to Provo and smashed BYU, proving that Protestants play better football than Mormons. TCU received good news elsewhere in the Mountain West, as Utah squeeked by Air Force in overtime. This means Utah remains a 1 loss team, and remains ranked. The Utes are 16th in the latest BCS. So when TCU hosts them on November 14th, they can add a quality win to their resume.
#10 USC is Overrated
I heard the ABC commentators whining about how the BCS's computer polls factor strength of schedule based on where teams finally wind up, not how high teams are ranked when they play each other. So USC's win over Ohio State has lost a little bit of luster to it. And this makes perfect sense. OSU was overrated, so why give USC credit for beating a #8 team that's actually a #17 team?
Anyway, USC is the highest ranked of the 1 loss teams at #5. The computers have them at 9th, but the human polls each have them at 4th. LSU is the next highest 1 loss team. Apparently a 16-13 loss to Washington is less damaging than a 13-3 loss to #1 Florida.
Oregon hosts USC on Saturday in a massive Pac-10 battle. And either USC can prove me wrong, or confirm my lesson.
-The Commodore
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
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