MLB Preview: Boston Red Sox (Pitching)

100 wins. All I keep hearing about is 100 wins. It's something the Red Sox haven't done since 1946. But is that really the achievement to long for? The Sox lost the 1946 World Series. And there are some parallels to that 1946 team, which led the Majors in offense, scoring half a run per game more than anyone else, but were 9th of 16 teams in runs allowed. They lost the World Series to St. Louis, the team that allowed the fewest runs in baseball.

Then, as now, pitching wins. And that's where I'll start this preview. Because even though a great offense can win 100 regular season games, it's pitching that wins 11 postseason games.

The Sox rotation looks the same as last year. And it has just as many question marks. We can pretty much bank on Jon Lester to have an ERA below 3.50, and 16 to 20 wins. He's been the rock of the rotation, and one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball the last 3 seasons.

Then there's Buchholz. Call me negative, but him repeating his 2010 feats is not guaranteed. We've all sort of assumed he will once again register an ERA around 2.50 and win close to 20 games. Maybe he will. Even 17 wins and a 3.00 ERA would be excellent. But he's 26. He has one great season under his belt. He's still a question mark. Even though he's overshadowed by much larger question marks in the rotation.

15-10 record. 3.96 ERA. 23 homeruns. That's what Josh Beckett averages every 162 games in his career. Even I was a little stunned to see that. It's so below average. With the Red Sox, he's been 71-40 with a 4.29 ERA. And since 2008, he's been atrocious. It's gotten to the point that Beckett isn't much of a question mark anymore. He's a bad pitcher until proven otherwise.

Among qualifying pitchers, John Lackey had the 73rd lowest ERA in baseball last year. He did eat innings, but that's pretty much it. You can live with him as a #4 starter, but if Beckett doesn't have a good year, he's your #3. And if Buchholz falters, he's your #2. And that's an alarming thought.

Then there's Daisuke. If any other pitcher won 18 games their sophomore season, then was repeatedly injured, struggled when healthy, and averaged 96 walks per full season, we'd be talking about sending him to Pawtucket. So what makes Daisuke so special? I just don't have a good feeling about Daisuke in 2011. Even when healthy, even when at his best, he doesn't go deep into games. His 18 win season was coupled with 167.2 innings pitched. 90 pitchers managed to surpass that mark in 2010.

Sorry folks, but the rotation is too vulnerable, and too dependent on all the stars aligning. Actually, it's dependant on time travel. If Buchholz is the same as he was in 2010, if Beckett is the same as he was in 2007, if Daisuke is the same as 2008, if Lackey is the same as he was in 2007 and in another city....

But it's 2011.

Thankfully, the bullpen looks quite a bit better than last year. The Sox blew the 4th most saves in baseball last year. And with shaky starting pitching, the bullpen will be worked hard in 2011.

Papelbon is still the closer. And even though he's not as elite as he used to be, he's still good enough. It'd be tough to find an improvement over him, but it won't be hard to find a replacement.

Daniel Bard has impressed as a set-up man, with a 1.11 WHIP in 124 career relief innings. Bard and Papelbon represent a quality 8th and 9th inning tandem. But they can't be overworked. They need help.

Bobby Jenks is a possible option. That's what the Sox did to this bullpen: added options. They signed a number of guys, hoping that one or two would work out as reliable set-up men. In the dice game that is relief pitching, this is a viable strategy to build a quality bullpen.

But Jenks is coming off a bad year. And he's gotten progressively worse since 2007. You never know with relievers, but it's hard to imagine that trend changing.

I'm much more optimistic about Dan Wheeler, who's pitched with success in the AL East. He's 33, but has 530 appearances under his belt. He'll wind up as the secondary set-up guy alongside Bard.

Wakefield will be a mop up man and spot starter. Doubront will be used against lefties.

The rest of the bullpen will be a revolving door of arms. Maybe one will be reliable enough to be a 6th inning man, or the type of guy that's brought in when the Sox are down 2 runs in the 7th.

Overrall, the bullpen isn't great, but it's no longer a liability. The rotation, however, is very suspect. So much needs to happen for it to work. And so much can go wrong for it to fail. I don't see Beckett winning more than 15 games. I don't see Daisuke throwing more than 180 innings. I see Buchholz having a good-not-great year. I don't see Lackey doing much better than he did in 2010.

But the offense should be able to make up for these shortcomings. At least in the regular season.

-The Commodore

Bard Wants To Start?

Daniel Bard recently made comments that he would like to be a starter in the future. All I can say is "shut the fuck up, and no". I hate when pitchers get flipped flopped from bullpen to the rotation. Seattle almost killed Morrow's career, the Yankees killed Joba's and I am sure there are 1,000 other examples. Bard found something he does well, and projects to do very well for a long time. Leave it how it is, and never bring it up again.

Red Sox 5 Blue Jays 6

This might have been the most painful loss of the year. The Red Sox played so well through the first 8 innings only to blow it in the 9th.

Lackey did everything we wanted him to do. He went deep into the game (8 innings), and limited the Jays dangerous offense to only 3 runs. He almost pitched a complete game, but Francona took him out after he let up a bomb (which I agreed with). Papelbon came in the game and promptly blew the game. Vernon Wells greeted Papelbon with a double and scored when Adam Lind lined a single up the middle. Pinch-runner Dewayne Wise stole second and moved to third when Hill singled off Papelbon's left foot. Papelbon stayed in the game and struck out Travis Snider, but Encarnacion tied it with a double down the line in left. Pinch-hitter Lyle Overbay was walked intentionally to load the bases for Lewis, who hit a fly ball to shallow center off Daniel Bard. Hill tagged up and slid home well ahead of the throw from Jacoby Ellsbury.

Tough way for the Red Sox to lose a game. Papelbon I think is fine he has just been way overworked lately, but that is going to happen since there are only 2 reliable arms in their bullpen (Papelbon/Bard).

With the loss the Sox are now 6 games behind the Yankees and 4 games behind the Rays.

Red Sox 3 Twins 2

The Red Sox needed someone in this rotation to step up, and Clay Buchholz did just that last night with his best start so far this season. Clay went 8 innings allowing 2 runs on 5 hits with 7 Ks, and best of all only walked 1 (he had walked 5 in each of his last two outings) on his way to his 5th win of the year.

That was the only good news as David Ortiz hit his 8th HR of the year in the 4th inning, it was a 2 run blast that put the Sox up 2-1. Bill Hall had an RBI single in the 6th to put the Sox up 3-1, before Bard let up 1 run in the 9th, but it didn't matter as the Sox won the game 3-2, and Bard got his first save of the year.

Boston is by no means fixed, but they are at least getting production from David Ortiz, and are now above .500 again. With the win the Sox are now 8 1/2 games behind the Rays and 4 1/2 behind the Yankees.

Red Sox 6 Rays 3

Finally the Sox had some success at Tropicana. Last night Buchholz pitched very well letting up 3 runs over 6 innings with 3 Ks. Boston is really going to need him to step up over the final month or so if they want to nail down the Wild Card.

Jason Bay continued his tear as he hit a 2 run double that put the Red Sox ahead 2-0 in the 1st inning. Tampa quickly responded with 2 runs of their own in the same inning, when Longoria (who just kills the Sox) and Zobrist got RBIs. Baldelli hit a HR in the 2nd, but an RBI by Zaun (another Red Sox killer) tied the game. Lowell put the Sox up for good in the 6th with a soc fly, and Boston was able to put the game out of reach in the 7th with 2 runs.

The key to this game was the fact that the Sox were able to get to the Tampa bullpen early in the game. Price was only able to go 5 1/3 innings, and the Rays bullpen is so bad that you just knew the Sox were going to win.

Boston's bullpen on the other hand was fantastic. Wagner pitched another scoreless inning striking out 2. Then Bard and Papelbon closed it out with 2 scoreless innings of their own.

With the win Boston is still just 2 1/2 games up on Texas for the Wild Card spot.

Red Sox 2 Yankees 5

Well at least we can say that this is over. The Sox had 6 important games in a row against the Rays and Yankees, and what do they do? Drop all 6 of course. Right now the Sox look like a ship with holes in it. One day it's the hitting, then next the bullpen, and even if you get both of those going the starting pitching blows up in your face.

Last night the Sox once again had trouble scoring runs. The Sox had not scored in 31 innings. That was finally broken when V-Mart went deep to put the Sox up 2-1. Lester was amazing last night, but it was the bullpen that did them in. Bard came in for the 8th inning and let up 2 bombs to Teixeira and Damon (back-to-back). So, the Sox took him out and put in old reliable Okajima, but he wasn't much better letting up 2 runs on a single by Nick Swisher, who is becoming quickly one of my least favorite players in the MLB.

Like I said before Boston looks like a sinking ship. They get some good starts out of their pitchers and they are wasting it. The only way this is going to be turned around is if players like Bay and Ortiz wake the fuck up, because right now the Sox are looking like a team of guys who can't get past 1st base.

With the loss the Sox are now 6 1/2 games behind the Yankees for 1st place in the AL East, and are tied with the Rangers for the Wild Card spot.

Red Sox 2 Rays 4 (13th)

Boston wasted a gem from Jon Lester last night, but this was a hard fought loss and these types of games happen. Lester left the game with the lead after going 6 innings letting up only 1 run on 3 hits with 10 Ks. The problem was that Garza was just as good letting up 2 runs over his 7 innings, as Boston's offense just not seem to have an answer for him.

The Rays were able to tie it at 2-2 in the 8th when Red Sox killer Evan Longoria hit a bomb off Bard, who had his first tough outing in a long time. The Rays and Red Sox bullpen were able to shut down each other until the 13th inning when once again Evan Longoria hit a bomb, this time off Saito, who you really can't blame as he was forced to pitch 2 innings since the Red Sox are short on relievers and there was really no one left. If the game had gone any longer the Sox were going to bring out Buchholz.

With the loss the Sox are now 1 1/2 games behind the Yankees for 1st place in the AL East, but I think we saw the coming out party for the Rays last night. They have kind of been the sleeping dragon all year, but if Garza can pitch like he did last night, and Kazmir continues to get healthy then this team is going to make this a 3 team race again quickly....

The Latest On Red Sox Trade Rumors

We will probably be making a lot of updates on this today, but here is what we are hearing this morning...

Victor Martinez - It is being said that the Sox have continued talks with the Indians. From the beginning the Indians have stated that Buchholz has to be part of the deal, which the Sox earlier rejected. It seems the Sox might be changing their tone a bit...

"ESPN.com's Jayson Stark reports the Red Sox and Indians were discussing a three-way trade Thursday night that would send Victor Martinez to Boston, Clay Buchholz to Cleveland and prospects flying in all directions. The Red Sox also would attempt to move recently acquired Adam LaRoche, either to a third team or in a companion deal, to make room for Martinez in their lineup, one source said (ESPN)."


Adrian Gonzalez - As of last night things were not looking good for Gonzalez coming to the Sox. The Padres want a package that would at least include Buchholz, Michael Bowden, Daniel Bard and others in the deal. The Sox seem extremely reluctant to trade Bard, as they have plans for him to be the closer after Papelbon retires, and he is doing a great job in the bullpen right now. The deal is not done, and both teams are still talking, but as of right now they are no closer to a deal.


Roy Halladay - Buster Olney of ESPN has come out and said that trade talks for Halladay are "dead" and not just for the Red Sox. It seems the Jays have scared off a lot of the teams that were interested. Still there is always a chance the Sox/Yankees could make a last second push for the All-Star pitcher. There are also reports that the Rangers could jump into this race.


The deadline is at 4 today, and we'll keep you updated, but as of right now the only deal that looks likely is some kind of 3 team deal where the Sox get V-Mart.

A's 5 Red Sox 8

Yesterday was a long day for Sox fans (and players). Yet in the end they were able to bounce back and beat the A's, so I guess that is all that matters. Jon Lester allowed four runs on seven hits and three walks, striking out two in 5 2/3 innings. His stat like would have looked a lot better, but he fell apart in the 6th inning letting up all of his 4 runs that he allowed. At that point the Sox were down 4-1 and it really didn't look like the Sox bats were going to bail them out, but they did...

In the bottom of the 6th the Sox got back 2 of those runs, as Lowell hit a ground rule double scoring Ortiz, and then Varitek singled to right field for his 2nd RBI of the night. The Sox kept it going int he 7th when Papi hit a 3 run bomb off Breslow, and in the 8th Tek got his 3rd RBI of the night on a RBI double.

Bard and Papelbon shut the A's out in the 8th and 9th inning to get the Sox their 59th win of the season. Papelbon now has 26 saves on the year, and with the Yankees having the night off Boston gained a 1/2 game on the Yankees, so they are only 3 back now.

Red Sox 6 Orioles 5 (11th)

What a difference a day makes. After blowing one of the biggest leads of all time, the Sox turned around the very next day and scored 4 runs in the 9th to send this game to extra innings. This was a very strange game. Beckett did not look like the ace, as he struggled through 7 innings allowing 5 runs on 6 hits. Jason Bay was 0-5 with 5 Ks, and yet the Sox still found a way to win this game.

So who were the heroes? Well don't laugh but it was Julio Lugo. In the 11th inning Julio Lugo singled in the tie breaking run in the 11th and Papelbon closed the game at 6-5 to become the Sox all time saves leader. '

Another strange hero was Daniel Bard. The game seemed all but over while the Sox were down 5-1. They weren't hitting, and they were about to call on that bullpen that imploded the night before. Since most of the pitchers were unavailable Franonca decided to pitch Bard 2 innings. He pitched 2 innings of hitless baseball collecting 4 Ks. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come from this young flamethrower.

The Sox are now 2 1/2 games up on the Yankees for 1st place in the AL East.

Red Sox 11 Nationals 3

Sox are so much better then the Nationals that it is hard to watch. Boston's bats exploded last night. Ellsbury went 4-4 with 3 RBIs, and Jason Bay continued his MVP like season going 4-6 with 3 RBIs including his 19th HR of the year as Boston walked all over the Nationals.

Penny wasn't great going 5 2/3 innings letting up 3 runs, but once he left the game the Sox bullpen shut the Nationals down. That's also when the Boston bats started heating up. It was 4-3 going into the 8th inning, but Boston put the game out of reach with a 6 run inning. Even with all the scoring the story of the game was Boston's bullpen once again being amazing. Delcarmen (who got the win), Okajima, Saito, and Bard combined to pitch 3 1/3 scoreless innings. You can really see the difference between a good team and a bad one when you see what their bullpen can do. The Nationals got a good start from Lannan, but the second he left the game the Sox crushed their bullpen.

With the win Boston is now 5 games over the Yankees and Jays for 1st place in the AL East.

Red Sox 4 Angels 8

When Wake is bad, he is really bad. Last night was just one of those nights that you have to take as a fan of the Sox while Wake is in the rotation. His knuckleball wasn't working, and thus he was crushed. It is really too bad since the Sox had a 4-0 lead going into the 3rd inning. It didn't last long as the Angels scored 5 runs in the 5th (2 runs from a Napoli HR). Wake went on to let up 7 runs on 11 hits in just 4 2/3 innings.

It took Matt Palmer 30 years to get his first major league victory, and now he has four in a span of 21 days including a complete game against the Sox. To be fair to the Sox they are playing without Youk and Pedroia right now, so they are a shell of what they usually are. Still, give the guy credit, he bounced back to shutout the Sox after letting up 4 runs in the first 2 innings.

There are not too many bright spots that come out of this game, but there are some. One is that Bay continues his quest for AL MVP going 2-4 with a HR and 2 RBIs. The other is Daniel Bard. This kid throws smoke, and he really help eat up some innings last night. Bard pitched 2 scoreless innings while only letting up 1 hit. This kid is the real deal, and will be a very important part of the Sox bullpen from here on out.

The other good news is that the Jays lost last night so Boston is still only 1 game out of first place in the AL East.

Daily Red Sox Spring Training Update

Baltimore 5 Red Sox 3

- Justin Masterson started the game and looked filthy, everyone from the Boston Globe to CBS Sportsline is raving about this kid. Too bad I just don't think there is going to be a spot in the rotation for him this year. Still, Masterson is going to be one of the keys to the Red Sox season. Masterson pitched 2 scoreless innings allowing only 1 hit with 1 K.

- Daniel Bard, who I think will be int he bullpen by mid season threw a scoreless inning with no hits and 1 K. This kid has nasty stuff, and can throw around 100 MPH. He can be wild, but if Papelbon ever leaves look for this kid to be the future.

- The Sox didn't get much offense, but that was because Ellsbury was the only true starter playing. Most guys left for the WBC or are nursing injuries. Ellsbury went 1-3.

- Once again the Sox pitching looked great. The only two pitchers to let up runs were Billy Traber, and Adam Mills, so overall pitching wise it was a good outing.

Other notes:

- Penny may have his start pushed back a day or two, because he pitched his side session in the cold, and Francona doesn't want him to pull a muscle. Nothing serious.

- Rocco Baldelli has been getting some time off. Expect a lot of this during the season. Francona said that spring training is way too long, and that players will be ready to go in a week or two. He went on to say that he wants to keep guys "fresh".

Sox play the Reds today at 1:05pm on NESN.

DC Meet Mr. Daniel Bard

Here is a guy that has been somewhat been going under the radar for many Red Sox fans. A lot of people had really high expectations for him, but after a disappointing 2007 season many people forgot about him. In 2008, Daniel Bard may have found his calling when he was moved to the bullpen. There he posted a 1.51 ERA and had 107 strikeouts in 77.2 innings of work, and was named the Boston Red Sox 2008 Minnor League Pitcher of the Year (Leter and Buchholz had won the award in previous years). For 2009, the Sox expect him to continue to work on his delivery and control. He has the velocity to be in the big leagues today (97-101 MPH), and his command has vastly improved since being moved to the bullpen. Expect to see this kid in a Red Sox uniform before the 2009 season is over, and he could even be playing a big role as the Red Sox make their playoff push.