Here's how I see the Western Conference stacking up, power ranking wise as he go into the playoffs tomorrow night. Again, this isn't necessarily how I think things will finish, but gives a different perspective than the rankings. This conference is FAR more interesting than the East again this year, although the East is catching up a bit.
Let's get right to it.
#1 Oklahoma City Thunder
Yea, I said it. OKC is atop my power rankings in the West. Not the Lakers who are the prohibitive favorite. Not the Spurs who have the league's best record. We don't know what Bynum will be able to provide and Manu is dealing with some health issues as well. Do I think the Thunder are going to win the title this year? I don't know. Probably not, but right now I think they're playing the best ball.
Obviously, they have Durant and Westbrook leading the way. But some might not have noticed the tear Serge Ibaka has been on since the trade of Jeff Green and the acquisition of Kendrick Perkins. Playing at his normal position Ibaka has been able to score more in a variety of ways and is a menace to opposing power forwards. Even better than Ibaka's surge (that's pretty fucking good right there!) has been that of James Harden since the trade. Harden has taken the bulk of the offensive void left by Green and he has finally stepped up to the point where he may no longer be a total bust at #3 overall.
Of course there is that whole experience thing. OKC is still very young and only has last year's playoff loss to build on. They added Perkins who has a ring, but he was always a quiet guy in the room in Boston so don't expect him to really be a team leader. He is what he is. A very physical defensive minded center.
OKC wins if... They aren't phased by the big stage and relish the moment.
OKC loses if... Harden can't be relied on to make that big shot when Durant and Westbrook are under pressure.
#2 Los Angeles Lakers
Still most likely the team to beat out of the West, especially if Bynum's injury doesn't prove to be a major issue. If it is then they could be in a bit of hot water. Kobe's frustration has been bubbling over for a couple weeks now, as evidenced by his outburst the other night. The game doesn't come so easy to Bryant anymore. Watching the Lakers what really stands out his how incredibly hard he has to work for just about every bucket now. Anyone else notice his dunks just barely sneaking over the rim now? Dude's gonna be laying it in before too long. Regardless, I think the old dog still has one more great fight in him, and his intensity is infectious - mostly because you know Pau Gasol, or poopface as I like to call him, is scared shitless of Bryant.
The other key component could be old friend Ron Artest. He just doesn't seem to have the focus he had last season, and especially in the playoffs. If he gets it together and gives them something positive, that could be all they need.
Lakers win if... Kobe doesn't become a black hole when he's not hot, and he gets some help from his teammates (which will aide in the former.)
Lakers lose if... Bynum can't get right, and Kobe hogs the ball even though he's not productive.
#3 Dallas Mavericks
Everyone likes to hate on this team, and right now Portland is the sexy upset pick. Beware of the upset pick that EVERYONE seems to like. Let's not forget Dallas finished the year with 57 wins, tied with LA for the 2nd most in the West. Dirk Nowitzki is money in the playoffs. The last 3 seasons he's averaged 26 and 10 come playoff time. He will get his. It's just a matter of whether or not Jason Terry and Jason Kidd and the rest of the Mavs can provide enough help.
Tyson Chandler has given them an interior presence they have never had during Dirk's time in Dallas. He operates in the post and allows Dallas to score from the perimeter, which is their bread and butter.
All that being said, this team still has a lot of questions. The biggest one being, is the window closed? I'm not sure about that and if ever there was a year for them this might be it. Bynum might be hurt, Kobe is older, San Antonio is also banged up and not as fresh as they once were. You know Dirk is hungry for a ring, but who knows if they can play tough enough to get one. Nonetheless, the Mavs are a fun team to watch.
Mavericks win if... Dirk is a star and Terry closes in the 4th.
Mavericks lose if... Pace of play gets too fast and Dirk isn't able to get his spots.
#4 San Antonio Spurs
I like, Ric Bucher, think the Spurs are a bit of a fraud. I'm not sure I trust this team to make another deep run into the playoffs. And in fact, I think they could get a lot of trouble from Memphis if they're not careful. However, the arguments made against the Celtics are the same ones that can be made against the Spurs, and I certainly haven't counted out the C's. The deciding factor could be the health of Manu Ginobili who I would argue is the focus of the offense now, and not Tim Duncan. He is currently listed as doubtful for the opening game, which will mean added pressure on Gary Neal and George Hill to put the ball in the basket. That means a much easier matchup for trick or treat Tony Allen if Manu has to sit out.
When all is said and done, I'm not sure I can bet against these experienced vets and arguably the Coach of the Year in Greg Popovich. But it won't be a hefty bet.
Spurs win if... Manu can play at full strength and role players like, Neal and Bonner give them big contributions.
Spurs lose if... Manu isn't ready to go and Neal
and Hill can't carry the load.
#5 Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers pulled off the deal of the season when they hoisted Gerald Wallace from Charlotte. He gives them the depth they've always needed by pushing guys like Fernandez and Batum and most importantly Brandon Roy to the bench. This team now has tremendous depth, amid the emergence of Lamarcus Aldridge as a bonafide stud this season.
Aldridge should get strong consideration for most improved player this season (although it will probably be Luis Scola). He can score in a variety of ways, and has really improved his toughness in the interior - one area I always thought he was lacking. He'll need to continue playing at that level for Portland to make a real run.
One thing to be nervous about as a Blazers fan would be that everyone is all over them right now as the sexy upset pick. The ingredients are all there but who knows if they'll be able to execute when push comes to shove.
Blazers win if... Aldridge plays well and Roy comes off the bench and is productive.
Blazers lose if... Aldridge shrinks under pressure and Roy is relied upon to do too much.
#6 Denver Nuggets
I feel like everyone is just writing this team off, but they've played great since the Melo trade and have a lot of good mojo working in their favor. They have the whole George Karl recovering from cancer feel-good story and got rid of Melo's big ego for a bunch of unselfish players who have come in and played very well together right away.
The Nuggets are the league leader in offensive efficiency, and have a plethora of offensive options. they kind of remind me of an offensive minded Detroit Pistons team that won it all in 2004. They have no All-Stars on the roster but they have great chemistry and they execute their game plan extremely well. Dano Galinari has played very well They also have J.R. Smith who when he is hot can definitely carry a team to a huge victory. Nene is in my opinion the most underrated Center in the league, and doesn't back down from anyone. They also have a little nastiness in Kenyon Martin, which you need to win in the playoffs.
I like this teams make-up, but unfortunately the West is so good I'm not sure they can escape the first round.
Nuggets win if... They get hot from 3 point range and protect home court.
Nuggets lose if... Play gets sloppy and they can't get stops because they're out of rhythm.
#7 Memphis Grizzlies
Some people are saying Memphis can pull the upset in round one. Indeed they've been a vast improved team this season - despite missing Rudy Gay for the most important stretch. However, I think LA would have been a better round one matchup as crazy as that sounds. Zebo, or Zach Randolph as he is commonly known, has put up arguably the best numbers of anyone not being paid attention to over the last couple seasons. It's like the whole tree-falls-in-a-forest type of thing. He should be on full display for this playoff series, and I can't wait to see what he does. If he can draw Duncan out to the perimeter and get him into foul trouble that could be great news for Memphis. The key to the series though should be Tony Parker vs Mike Conley. If Conley is able to get off and distribute and score the Grizz might have a shot. However, he'll have his hands equally full trying to guard the pesky Parker.
Grizzlies win if...Zebo can outplay Duncan by a wide margin.
Grizzlies lose if...Tony Parker destroys Mike Conley and Tony Allen is in foul trouble.
#8 New Orleans Hornets
Chris Paul...blah blah blah. I saw on Sports Nation where Chris Paul is supposed to be a better clutch player than Kobe because he performs better in the 4th quarter than just about anyone. That is example number 1,347,856 why you can't just go by numbers. I like Chris Paul, but the Hornets don't stand much of a chance here.
Seems like a long friggin time ago that the Hornets sat atop these power rankings, but it was only November. How things have changed. They are 14 out of the 16 playoff teams in offensive efficiency.
I don't really even want to waste a whole lot of time on this team. I hope they get contracted along with a few other teams.
Hornets win if...Chris Paul is a world beater and puts this team on his back.
Hornets lose if...Paul is anything short of what I just mentioned (even if he plays very well).
