Divisional Round Breakdown

Packers at Falcons

In Saturday’s NFC matchup, the Green Bay Packers will take their show on the road for a second consecutive week. Their opponent, the number one seeded, Atlanta Falcons. The Georgia dome has provided very little southern hospitality to visiting teams this season. Matt Ryan has led the Falcons to a 7-1 home record and a 13-3 mark overall. The Packers will have to become just the second team this season to defeat Atlanta at home if they want to punch their ticket to the conference championship.

The Saints were able to stun Atlanta in week 16 when they became the first team defeat the Falcons in the Georgia dome this season. Prior to that defeat, Atlanta had rattled off eight straight victories and appeared to be the class of the NFC. However, after losing to New Orleans, many people (myself included), began to notice the softness of Atlanta’s schedule. Wins against; St. Louis, Arizona, Carolina twice, San Francisco, Cincinnati, and Cleveland account for more than half of their victories. However, a closer look reveals that Atlanta’s only three losses have all come at the hands of playoff teams. However, seeing as the two NFC teams (Eagles and Saints) out of those three were eliminated last weekend, Atlanta’s chances of playing in Dallas seem more realistic.

The biggest advantage Atlanta holds over Green Bay is location. If this game is played on the frozen tundra at Lambeau Field, the Packers could run away with it. Instead the Falcons hold home field advantage, a place where the Packers have already lost this season.

A Matt Bryant field goal with :09 seconds left is all that separated these two teams in their week 12 matchup. Matt Ryan was nearly perfect; completing 24 of 28 passes for 197 yards and a score. However, it was the play of running back, Michael Turner that propelled the Falcons to victory. Turner carried the ball 23 times for 110 yards and a touchdown. If the Falcons wish to serve the Packers with a second helping of home cooking, Turner has to be the main ingredient. Atlanta’s 12th ranked rushing attack relies on turner to pick up yards as well as, bring opposing safeties closer to the line of scrimmage, opening up the door for play action and single coverage on Pro Bowl receiver, Roddy White.

White led the NFL with 115 catches this season, shattering Atlanta’s franchise record. The Ryan to White connection has at times looked unstoppable. White is able to create separation from cornerbacks with relative ease. From there, if he is not double teamed or allotted safety coverage, he uses his big body to make space and catch the ball at its highest point. He is especially dangerous inside the red zone where the Falcons will run slants and fades in an effort to get one on one coverage for Roddy to exploit.

An area of weakness for the Falcons is their 22nd ranked pass defense. In two of their three losses, Atlanta has allowed a quarterback to throw for over 300 yards. Kevin Kolb torched the Atlanta secondary for 326 yards and 3 touchdowns. Drew Brees completed 35 of 49 passes for 302 yards and a score. Even their first loss against Pittsburgh, the Falcons surrendered 236 yards to third string quarterback, Dennis Dixon.

Unfortunately for the Falcons, they are going against the hottest passer in the NFC in Packer’s quarterback, Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has been on fire since returning from his second concussion of the season. In his first game back, Rodgers dissected the New York Giants defense for 404 yards and 4 touchdowns, effectively spoiling their playoff chances. Last week, in Philadelphia, Rodgers needed just 18 completions and 180 yards to put up 3 touchdowns and advance past a dangerous Eagles team. Enough cannot be said about Rodgers’ play. He has stepped up as Green Bay’s leader and continues to produce despite not having a running game to compliment him.

Rodgers’ main target is Pro Bowl receiver, Greg Jennings. After getting off to a slow start Jennings has elevated his play and has emerged as one of the top receivers in the NFC. His ability to go over the middle and over the top has provided Rodgers with a legitimate number 1 target who can be relied on in the clutch. Last Sunday, Asante Samuel blanketed Jennings; he was limited to 1 catch for 8 yards. However, Jennings had an outstanding season, with over 1,200 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. He will no doubt be a headache for the Falcons secondary on Saturday.

The Packers defense is nothing short of ferocious. Led by Clay Matthews, the Pack have held opponents under 10 points five times this season, most of any NFC team. Their 5th ranked pass defense can be credited to a strong secondary led by reigning defensive player, Charles Woodson. The key defensively for the Packers is to force Atlanta to be one-dimensional. Shutting down Roddy White is much easier said than done, but Woodson is truly one of the league’s premier shutdown corners.

This is going to be a close game with both teams evenly matched. I think Atlanta’s home field advantage can be neutralized with early scoring drivers orchestrated by Rodgers. However, Matt Ryan has proved to be money in the clutch and can never be counted out of a game. I believe whichever quarterback has the ball last will be victorious. A game winning drive by Matty Ice is going to be the difference in this one.

Falcons 23 Packers 20

Matt Ryan Out vs. Eagles

"Falcons QB Matt Ryan (toe) will not play in Week 13 against Philadelphia. He left Sunday's game against Tampa Bay with what has been officially diagnosed as turf toe. Falcons coach Mike Smith would not confirm reports that Ryan has gone to see a foot specialist in Charlotte, saying that he was still in Atlanta. "During the week he's going to work with our medical staff diligently to get back as quick as he can," Smith said of Ryan (CBSSports)."

Ryan has been durable in career as thing is the first game he will miss since being drafted by the Falcons. Ryan has not had a great year and Redman played well while Ryan was out, so the Falcons shouldn't be hurt too bad. Still, I don't see them winning this game, as the Eagles are eventually going get it going with all that talent (right?). There is no word on how many games Ryan might miss...

Top 25 Under 25: #9 Matt Ryan

Born: May 17, 1985

Breaking the top 10 on our list, former ACC player of the year, Matt Ryan. Ryan was the third overall pick by the Falcons in last year’s draft. After winning the starting job in the pre season, Ryan made his debut in style, hooking up with receiver Michael Jenkins for a 62-yard touchdown pass on the first throw of his career. What began as a good start quickly transpired to a solid season. Although Matty Ice didn’t have dazzling numbers last season (16 Touchdowns 11 interceptions) he was able to start all 16 games and lead the Falcons to the playoffs for the first time since 2004. In addition to the team’s new found success, Ryan earned AP rookie of the year honors over Raven’s quarterback Joe Flacco.

Ryan’s success as a rookie was just the beginning of what promises to be an outstanding career. The Falcons are a shoe-in to win the NFC south, with a potent offensive attack led by Ryan, receiver Roddy White, and running Michael “the burner” Turner.

Matt Ryan: Offensive Rookie of the Year

Matt Ryan has won the 2008 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award today. He actually had some stiff competition in my mind from Steve Slaton, but the associated press had Ryan winning it by a landslide. Ryan has been terrific this season, and turned around a franchise that was all but in ruins from the Vick crisis. His stats won't blow you away (16 TDS 11 INTs), but his composure and leadership put him over the top. Good for you Ryan, and have fun with the over 8 million in bonuses you are getting from the Falcons, because you hit basically every incentive in your contract.

-BMack

Blacks Finally Coming Around on Matty Ice

The NY Times ran a thrilling piece on Monday about the relationship between Atlanta Falcon's QB Matt Ryan and the largely black Falcon fanbase. There is plenty to read and if you are a Ryan or BC fan perhaps you'll want to dedicate the time. You can find it all here. Other wise, enjoy these choice cuts:

“We miss Vick,” said Timothy Chambers, a tailgater before the Nov. 16 home game against the Denver Broncos, shouting over the sounds of the Atlanta hip-hop group Goodie Mob blasting from parking-lot speakers.

“It’s not the same as it was.” Chambers said his circle of season-ticket holder friends contracted from about 30 to 18 last season, partly explaining their diminished enthusiasm on Vick’s absence. “There’s more white people in the crowd now. When Vick was in there, it was almost totally black,”

Yes, it's not the same as it was. You now have a quarterback with skill. A quarterback that can read defenses and can deliver the ball on target more than 15% of the time. Black, white, green or yellow what difference does it make. I get the sense of identity thing but how can skin color take precedence over talent. Maybe it's a bit ironic for me to be saying anything given New England's embrace for white athletes but I sure as shit would much rather have a leader who can win games in there over some guy that shares my ethnicity.

I'm pretty sure all the blacks in Cleveland aren't losing sleep over the chance of Romeo Crenel being replaced. No, I bet they are happy as cows in shit over the possibility that Bill Cowher could come save the day.

And all this completely ignores the fact that everything good Ronny Mexico did, professionally or personally, was lost when the dog cruelty came to light. Showing up a year and a half later wearing #7 jerseys is akin to Bills fans wearing OJ Simpson jerseys, Carolina fans wearing Rae Carruth gear or Ravens fans wearing Ray Lewis....never mind. You get the point.

I guess it is nice to know a sure fire rookie of the year performance has turned some of the Atlanta fan base. Maybe hope is not lost yet.

After an impressive play by Ryan at a recent game , an African-American fan seated near her belted out the highest form of praise: “Go, Vanilla Vick!”

Or maybe it is.

(h/t: Deadspin)

Some Love For First Year Starting QBs

There has been some impressive plays coming from rookie QBs this year, and when I say rookies I mean QBs that are getting their first chance to start...

Matt Ryan - Good chance this guy will win rookie of the year. I knew he was going to be a great NFL QB, but I didn't think it would happen this fast. He has the Falcons at 6-3, and I really think they are going to make the playoffs. Today he beat the Saints by going 16/23 for 2 TDs 0 INTs. He is unbelievable running the play actions, and just seems to never make mistakes.

Joe Flacco - He has had some up and down games, but he has the Ravens sitting 6-3, and he also has the highest QB rating in the 4th quarter of any rookie QB. He won't wow you with number, but he sure knows how to manage a game, and that's al the Ravens really ever needed (remember Dilfer?). You have to be impressed that Flacco has been so good, and only played 1AA football in college.

Tyler Thigpen - Sure the Cheifs are bad, but this guy has had some great stats. In his last 3 games he has 6 TDs 0 INTs. Not too bad for a guy DP and I were making fun of since we saw his name in as the starting QB. Who knows maybe this guy is the real deal for the Chiefs.

Matt Cassel - Tom Brady went down, and a lot of bandwagon Patriot fans headed for the exit. Sure he is no Brady, but he actually looks a lot like Brady his first year playing. Is he going to throw 6 TDs in a game...no, but he doesn't make mistakes, and has been showing he can make some plays with his feet. Not only do I think he can win the Patriots the AFC East, but I think he can help them make some noise in the playoffs.

Aaron Rodgers - He came out and was awesome for the Packers, but he has been laying eggs for a couple weeks now. Still, I believe in this kid, and maybe it's just because of my hatred for Favre, but I really think this kid is the real do. The Packers' seem to agree, as they just signed him to a long term deal. He has been battling a shoulder injury all year, and has lost some close games. Still, the Packers are sitting at 4-5 and have a good shot at wining the division. You have to be somewhat impressed with his 13 TDs, and only 5 INTs. I'd rather have that then Favre's 12 INTs.

Brady Quinn - Only one game, but you have to be impressed so far. He has the weapons around him to put up some very good stats. Still, he went to ND, so I refuse to see him as a winner.

All and all you have to be impressed with a lot of these first time starter. Of course there are the not so good, cough cough JaMarcus Russell....

-BMack

With The Number 3 Pick in the 2008 NFL Draft the Atlanta Falcons Choose....

Matt Ryan.

Although, Atlanta has more pressing needs on the offensive and defensive line, Matt Ryan at 3 is a must. Michael Vick's name will be an afterthought if they select a QB with this pick. I am a Boston College fan so I have seen the intangibles Ryan possesses, I like the way Ryan grinds out victories (like the V-Tech Game) and he has an NFL arm to boot. He proved to be a great QB with limited talent around him, and that is exactly what Atlanta is. Hopefully Michael Turner will be the guy, Arthur Blank thinks he can be, because that will take tons of pressure off Ryan. I was torn between Ryan and Dorsey with this pick.



3. Atl- Matt Ryan
2. St.L- Chris Long