Divisional Round Breakdown

Packers at Falcons

In Saturday’s NFC matchup, the Green Bay Packers will take their show on the road for a second consecutive week. Their opponent, the number one seeded, Atlanta Falcons. The Georgia dome has provided very little southern hospitality to visiting teams this season. Matt Ryan has led the Falcons to a 7-1 home record and a 13-3 mark overall. The Packers will have to become just the second team this season to defeat Atlanta at home if they want to punch their ticket to the conference championship.

The Saints were able to stun Atlanta in week 16 when they became the first team defeat the Falcons in the Georgia dome this season. Prior to that defeat, Atlanta had rattled off eight straight victories and appeared to be the class of the NFC. However, after losing to New Orleans, many people (myself included), began to notice the softness of Atlanta’s schedule. Wins against; St. Louis, Arizona, Carolina twice, San Francisco, Cincinnati, and Cleveland account for more than half of their victories. However, a closer look reveals that Atlanta’s only three losses have all come at the hands of playoff teams. However, seeing as the two NFC teams (Eagles and Saints) out of those three were eliminated last weekend, Atlanta’s chances of playing in Dallas seem more realistic.

The biggest advantage Atlanta holds over Green Bay is location. If this game is played on the frozen tundra at Lambeau Field, the Packers could run away with it. Instead the Falcons hold home field advantage, a place where the Packers have already lost this season.

A Matt Bryant field goal with :09 seconds left is all that separated these two teams in their week 12 matchup. Matt Ryan was nearly perfect; completing 24 of 28 passes for 197 yards and a score. However, it was the play of running back, Michael Turner that propelled the Falcons to victory. Turner carried the ball 23 times for 110 yards and a touchdown. If the Falcons wish to serve the Packers with a second helping of home cooking, Turner has to be the main ingredient. Atlanta’s 12th ranked rushing attack relies on turner to pick up yards as well as, bring opposing safeties closer to the line of scrimmage, opening up the door for play action and single coverage on Pro Bowl receiver, Roddy White.

White led the NFL with 115 catches this season, shattering Atlanta’s franchise record. The Ryan to White connection has at times looked unstoppable. White is able to create separation from cornerbacks with relative ease. From there, if he is not double teamed or allotted safety coverage, he uses his big body to make space and catch the ball at its highest point. He is especially dangerous inside the red zone where the Falcons will run slants and fades in an effort to get one on one coverage for Roddy to exploit.

An area of weakness for the Falcons is their 22nd ranked pass defense. In two of their three losses, Atlanta has allowed a quarterback to throw for over 300 yards. Kevin Kolb torched the Atlanta secondary for 326 yards and 3 touchdowns. Drew Brees completed 35 of 49 passes for 302 yards and a score. Even their first loss against Pittsburgh, the Falcons surrendered 236 yards to third string quarterback, Dennis Dixon.

Unfortunately for the Falcons, they are going against the hottest passer in the NFC in Packer’s quarterback, Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has been on fire since returning from his second concussion of the season. In his first game back, Rodgers dissected the New York Giants defense for 404 yards and 4 touchdowns, effectively spoiling their playoff chances. Last week, in Philadelphia, Rodgers needed just 18 completions and 180 yards to put up 3 touchdowns and advance past a dangerous Eagles team. Enough cannot be said about Rodgers’ play. He has stepped up as Green Bay’s leader and continues to produce despite not having a running game to compliment him.

Rodgers’ main target is Pro Bowl receiver, Greg Jennings. After getting off to a slow start Jennings has elevated his play and has emerged as one of the top receivers in the NFC. His ability to go over the middle and over the top has provided Rodgers with a legitimate number 1 target who can be relied on in the clutch. Last Sunday, Asante Samuel blanketed Jennings; he was limited to 1 catch for 8 yards. However, Jennings had an outstanding season, with over 1,200 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. He will no doubt be a headache for the Falcons secondary on Saturday.

The Packers defense is nothing short of ferocious. Led by Clay Matthews, the Pack have held opponents under 10 points five times this season, most of any NFC team. Their 5th ranked pass defense can be credited to a strong secondary led by reigning defensive player, Charles Woodson. The key defensively for the Packers is to force Atlanta to be one-dimensional. Shutting down Roddy White is much easier said than done, but Woodson is truly one of the league’s premier shutdown corners.

This is going to be a close game with both teams evenly matched. I think Atlanta’s home field advantage can be neutralized with early scoring drivers orchestrated by Rodgers. However, Matt Ryan has proved to be money in the clutch and can never be counted out of a game. I believe whichever quarterback has the ball last will be victorious. A game winning drive by Matty Ice is going to be the difference in this one.

Falcons 23 Packers 20