Jets at Steelers
For the second year in a row, the New York Jets will be playing in the AFC championship game. Similar to last season, Rex Ryan will take his show on the road for a chance to reach the Superbowl. The only thing standing in their way is the AFC north champion Pittsburgh Steelers. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30 Sunday night at Heinz Field.
The Jets have already proven that they can win at Heinz field, something only two teams (Jets and Patriots) have accomplished since Ben Roethlisberger returned from suspension in the middle of October. The Jets won a hard fought battle, 22-17, with help from their defense (4th quarter safety) and special teams (97-yard kickoff return by Brad Smith). Jets’ quarterback, Mark Sanchez, was held in check completing 19 of 29 passes for 170 yards. New York’s balanced offense (27 rushes, 29 pass attempts) confused the Pittsburgh defense and although Sanchez was not able to throw any touchdowns, he orchestrated two drives resulting in short field goals, on top of running in the Jets only offensive touchdown. Pittsburgh came up just short, with the ball in Roethlisberger’s hands in the final seconds, he was unable to complete what would have been the game winning pass, Where is Santonio when you need him?
Interestingly enough, the Superbowl XLIII hero was traded to none other than New York Jets following another disastrous off-season that netted Holmes a 4-game suspension of his own to start the season. Since returning, Holmes has had a remarkable impact on the Jets offense, hauling in 52 catches for 746 yards and 6 touchdowns. His specialty has always been the clutch touchdown. This year was no different. Holmes had game winning catches in back to back games against Cleveland and Houston. Most recently, Holmes sealed the victory over the Patriots with a magnificent catch late in the 4th quarter. Alongside fellow cast-off, Braylon Edwards, they have created a dynamic duo. Holmes has great hands and can be very explosive in the open field. Edwards is more of a deep threat whose long body can make for a challenging assignment to shorter cornerbacks.
Despite having two very good receivers, the strength of the Jets offense is their 4th ranked rushing attack. A year of resurgence from LaDanian Tomlinson has paid off with a chance to play in the Superbowl, something Tomlinson has yet to accomplish in his illustrious career. Spelling Tomlinson is second year back, Shonn Greene, many envisioned a bigger role for Greene coming into this season, however, the balance between LT and Greene has worked out favorably for both backs, limiting their carries to a manageable amount and preserving their legs for the postseason. Greene has posted back to back 70+ yard games in the postseason, and put the Jets up two scores in the closing minutes against New England. Look for these backs to get around 30 total carries for 150 yards if the Jets want to have any success on offense.
Another element the Pittsburgh defense should be concerned with is tight end, Dustin Keller. DK has been relatively silent the last month of the season, but out of sight does not mean out of mind in the eyes of an NFL head coach. The Patriots were able to dismantle the Steelers by matching up their tight ends against the slower Pittsburgh linebackers, if this is the case on Sunday, Pittsburgh could be in for a long evening.
Fortunately for Pittsburgh, as I mentioned, the Jets ability to win games is largely in part of their stellar ground game. However, Pittsburgh boasts the league’s best defense against the run, holding opponents to 62.8 yards per game. Defensive tackle Casey Hampton is superb at clogging up the middle and often commanding two lineman to prevent him from blowing up running plays before they can start. Lawrence Timmons led the team in tackles with 135, and remains a very underrated piece of the Steelers championship caliber defense. Both James Harrison and Lamar Woodley had 10 sacks this year. It marks the third straight season that both men had 10 or more sacks, and Harrison’s second year of 100+ tackles and 10+ sacks, the first time coming in 2008, when he was named the league's defensive player of the year and a Superbowl champion. Monitoring the secondary is All-Pro safety, Troy Polamalu. It is imperative that Polamalu finds a way to force a turnover; he is a menace in the backfield and plays a great center field for a strong safety. Sanchez has been known to leave a lot balls hanging up in the air this postseason. It is only a matter of time before one of those ill advised throws winds up in the hands of an opposing defensive back. The Jets did not have a single turnover in their first matchup one month ago, if they play turnover free football; they are almost impossible to beat.
The proverbial trick up the sleeve for Pittsburgh is breakout wide receiver, Mike Wallace. This guy can change the momentum of a game in an instant. His explosive speed has haunted defensive coordinators all season long. He has the ability to turn an 8-yard crossing pattern into a 75-yard touchdown in the blink of an eye. It will be interesting to see which of the Jets cornerbacks checks the speedy Wallace. Antonio Cromartie might make the most sense; he is a little bit faster than Darrelle Revis, and typically covers opposing teams’ deep threats. The Jets must also attempt to shut down future hall of famer, Hines Ward. In plain terms, Ward is a pest. He is the ideal Pittsburgh Steeler. Ward gives 100% on every play, a rarity for wide receivers, he can catch, run, and block at a very high level and always seems to play above his head in the playoffs.
The Jets 3rd ranked rushing defense will have the challenging task of stopping Rashard Mendenhall. He was limited to 46 yards on 20 carries against Baltimore on Saturday; however, he was able to find the end zone twice. The Jets had an ideal game plan last weekend against the Patriots holding running backs Danny Woodhead and BenJarvus Green-Ellis to 89 yards on 23 carries. Although Mendenhall is a better runner than those two backs combined, the Jets have only allowed one 100-yard rusher the entire season (Matt Forte, 135 yards).
Seeing as both teams have solid defenses, and equally strong supporting casts on offense, I think this matchup will boil down to Mark Sanchez vs. Ben Roethlisberger.
On paper, it’s an easy pick. One guy is 9-2 in the post season and owns two Superbowl rings. The other is in his second year, has never played in a Superbowl, but he is 4-1 in the playoffs. Conventional wisdom would say that the better quarterback is going to win at home. However, seeing as I am neither conventional nor do I have much wisdom, I am picking the New York Jets. There is something magical about the Jets in the postseason and I can no longer deny it. Last year I wrote them off as lucky after they were one win away from a Superbowl berth. This year, I thought they had the talent but no leadership and no quarterback. And now, I can admit, that I was wrong. This team is spectacular and they know how to win playoff games. Not to take anything away from Pittsburgh, they are an excellent team but the Jets are playing possessed football, and I am not sure anybody can beat them.
J-E-T-S 20 Steelers 16
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