Conference Championship Preview: NFC

Packers at Bears

The first game on Sunday’s docket features divisional foes, the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers. The game will be played at Soldiers Field in downtown Chicago kickoff is slated for 3pm.

Packers and Bears split their regular season series, each winning on their home field. While some question the climate of the second matchup, in which, Green Bay needed to win in order to clinch a playoff spot, unlike Chicago who had already clinched the number 2 seed in the NFC and essentially had nothing to play for. However, contrary to that idea, head coach Lovie Smith kept his starters in for the entire game and the Packers were able to edge the Bears 10-3. In their first matchup, special teams proved to be the deciding factor in a 20-17 Bears victory. Devin Hester was able to return a punt 62-yards for a touchdown, which supplemented Chicago’s stagnant offense. A pair of Robbie Gould field goals, the latter of which was drilled with :04 seconds left, sealed the win for the Bears.

So what did we learn from the first two games, these two teams are very even. This game is certainly going to come down to a lot more than Aaron Rodgers vs. Jay Cutler. Both teams are going to rely on their defense and/or special teams units to come up with points, or at the very least, a turnover.

While neither team was able to show a formidable running game in the regular season, they cannot abandon the ground game completely. In their first game in Chicago, Jay Cutler was the Bear’s leading rusher with 37 yards; the Bear’s cannot expect to win on Sunday if this is the case. Likewise, Rodgers led the Packers in rushing yards in their victory over the Bears in week 17.

It will be important for both teams to establish some form of a rushing attack. For the Packers, I think the answer is 6th round draft pick, James Starks. Starks has shown that he is more explosive than Brandon Jackson, incumbent to injured starter Ryan Grant, and he is more versatile. On wild card weekend, Starks torched Philadelphia for 123 yards on 23 carries. Even though he was slowed down against a tough front seven from Atlanta, Starks still carried the ball 25 times, providing balance to the Packers “pass happy” offense. However, the real challenge will be taking on the Bears second ranked rush defense.

For Chicago, the key to running the ball will have to be a healthy mixture of Matt Forte and off-season pick-up, Chester Taylor. Since it is quite evident that neither back is capable of managing the load, both must be used to keep the Packers guessing. Forte has good explosiveness and is an elite pass-catching back, while Taylor is a better blocker and more of a north-south type runner. If these backs together can total 100 yards, Chicago will be in good shape.

As far as passing is concerned, Aaron Rodgers is playing as well as you can play the position right now. After dissecting the Eagles defense for 3 touchdowns two weeks ago, Rodgers picked up right where he left off against Atlanta, tossing for 3 more scores in a decisive road victory. The Rodgers to Jennings connection appears to be unstoppable and the Bear’s 20th ranked pass defense could be in for a long afternoon if they do not disrupt the league's 5th best passing offense. If Jennings is curtailed by Charles Tlilman on Sunday, look for James Jones and slot receiver Jordy Nelson to create mismatches against a porous Bears’ secondary. As mentioned earlier, if the Packers offense can have the benefit of 30+ combined carries from Starks and Jackson, their play action calls are going to give Chicago nightmares.

On the other side of the ball, Jay Cutler will look to bring his playoff record to 2-0. That’s right last Sunday marked the first post-season game of Cutler’s life. He never qualified for a bowl while playing at Vanderbilt, and failed to make the tournament in any of his four previous seasons as an NFL starter. Although his lack of experience in late January is worth noting, Cutler was able to silence all the critics last week with a 4 TD (2 passing, 2 rushing) performance last week against Seattle. Crucial to Cutler’s success is his ability to remain upright in the pocket. Green Bay will dial up every blitz in the book to pressure Cutler into making mistakes, which has been his downfall throughout his career. He should be especially weary of blitzing duo Clay Matthews charging off the edge, and Charles Woodson coming on the corner blitz, a specialty of Green Bay’s stout defense.

Defensively, Green Bay has to depend on their defense to do what they do best, create turnovers. Aside from maybe the Baltimore Ravens, the Packers are the best in the league at hurrying the quarterback and forcing him to throw before he is ready. Defensive tackle, B.J. Raji, makes things very difficult for opposing offensive linemen. He commands a double team on virtually every snap. This leaves an empty gap for Matthews to rush free causing the quarterback to either wet himself or throw the ball too quickly, or sometimes both. Their lockdown secondary consisting of Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams, and Nick Collins have essentially clinched the previous two playoff games. The first of which was a Collins interception to prevent a game winning touchdown against the Eagles, and most recently, Williams’ pick-six of Matt Ryan at the end of the first half from which the Falcons never recovered.

Chicago, like Green Bay, will need to diagram some creative blitz packages to throw the unflappable Aaron Rodgers off his rhythm. Easy for me to say, but very difficult to execute. Veteran linebacker core led by Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs have to eliminate all underneath routes and force Rodgers to throw to the sidelines. Like I mentioned before, both teams need something special to happen on defense and or special teams, this applies double to the Bears. Their offense is suspect at best and with Cutler’s inconsistent play, this game weighs heavily on the broad shoulders of the Bears’ defense. If the Packers play turnover free football, it could be curtains for Chicago’s playoff run. However, if the Bears are able to generate a strip-six or a punt return TD from Hester, this could put Chicago in a fortuitous position of playing with a lead, something they do exceptionally well.

Normally these games go down to the wire, but I am picking the team that can get out to the quick lead. I think both defenses are good enough to protect it for their respective offenses. In the end, I do not see Chicago having the firepower to contend with a dangerous Packers team.

Packers 21 Bears 13