Some Super Bowl perspective on Super Bowl XLV

The way the Packers won the Super Bowl XLV is how you draw it up, right? Pretty much every important player on the Packers except Charles Woodson and Ryan Pickett was drafted or acquired as an undrafted free agent. You really need to give Ted Thompson credit for shrewd drafting both in terms of starters and backups. Not since the 2003-2004 Patriots has there been such a deep team that is so good at filling in for injured starters. Oh yeah, and he saw that he hit the goldmine in Aaron Rodgers (the same guy who completed 23 consecutive passes at one point in 2004 and yet was drafted 24th overall in 2005) and stood up to Mr. Wrangler.

In addition to being happy for a good team that stuck to their guns in the face of what’s-his-name, hopefully the Super Bowl gave me some perspective to some Patriots fans who were devastated by the Jets loss. I’m painfully aware that the Pats blew a golden chance to win a fourth Super Bowl with home field, but the playoffs are a crap shoot. All you can do is put yourself in the best position possible to win. In a quarterback league, the Pats had the MVP who had 36 touchdown passes and a defense that was playing better by the week in the second half of the season. It all meant nothing because the Jets were better than the Pats that day. Same thing goes for the Steelers, who were supposedly built for the playoffs and a championship.

It is REALLY hard to win Super Bowls in this era and after watching the events of last night, I appreciate the Pats winning three of four to an even greater degree. The year-to-year differences between teams so stark that winning consecutive titles seems less possible by the day.

This Packers defense, which held together despite losing its leader, isn’t much difference personnel-wise than the unit that gave up 51 points to the Cardinals in last year’s playoff game. Many fans compared these Steelers to the 2008 version that won the Super Bowl in dramatic fashion but are leaving out the fact that they went 9-7 last year. My point? While it’s a natural reaction to be disappointed when your team doesn’t win the big one, it’s damn-near impossible to cruise to a Super Bowl title anymore. So much luck is involved that you need to appreciate when your team succeeds and understand that parity is what drives the NFL. As I said yesterday, even when you’re NFL royalty like the Steelers, nothing is guaranteed.

A few other things:

* I would like to talk to those analysts who tried to make the point that if Ben Roethlisberger won, his 3-0 Super Bowl record would be more impressive than Tom Brady’s 3-1 mark. Just as I questioned why Joe Montana’s 4-0 record is so hallowed, I don’t understand this logic at all. Are they trying to say it’s better to lose in conference championship game than the Super Bowl? Isn’t the point to give your team a chance at the title? Someone please help me here.

* Does anyone else find it disturbing that there is such a disparity between the respective NFL and MLB Halls of Fame? How is it that Cooperstown has become the Hall of Very Good by allowing Phil Rizzuto and Bert Blyleven into its doors while Chris Carter and Curtis Martin can’t make it to Canton? Look, I understand that baseball has been around much longer and there’s a different voting system because of different value placed on players. But there is still something wrong with both voting processes. Let’s use Bill Simmons’ pantheon levels for all sports and be done with it.

* You proved me right in one sense, Rashard Mendenhall. Your fumble helped seal the game for the Packers and made it clear that he can’t be counted on as an elite running back consistently in the playoffs.

No Parades for Schadenfreude

Schadenfreude (noun): enjoyment obtained from the troubles of others (German)

As a Patriots fan, it's nice to see the Steelers lose. Apart from Mike Tomlin, there's really not much to like about that team. By the way, had Pittsburgh won, I would have written how Mike Tomlin doesn't get nearly enough credit as he deserves. Probably because he's not as secretive as Bill Belichick, not as preachy as Tony Dungy, and not as loudmouthed as Rex Ryan. The guy just coaches a football team and does a damn good job at it.

As a Patriots fan, and as someone who dislikes the Steelers, and who has an intense animosity (coupled with respect) toward Ben Roethlisberger, I'm relieved this morning. But I'm not happy. I'm not from Wisconsin. My team got bounced, early, again. So I recommend to my fellow Patriot fans not to smile so smugly today. Because for the last two seasons, we've enjoyed watching NFC teams doing our dirty work, and eliminating our rivals.

I do think that this game thoroughly exemplified what the NFL is truly about these days. There were about 10 quality teams in the League this year. And there wasn't much on paper that separated them from each other. Green Bay lost 6 games this year. They lost to the Falcons once, then beat them. The Patriots lost to the Jets, then beat them, then lost. The Steelers lost to the Jets, then beat them.

These games really do come down to execution on a few key plays. Last night, Pittsburgh's turnovers pretty much cost them the game. But there were also potential big plays that never materialized. Green Bay muffed an early punt, but fell on the ball. The entire shape of the game changes if that one play changes.

It's a League of execution. So while Patriot fans shouldn't be jumping for joy for a parade in Wisconsin, they also shouldn't be moping about. Our team in Foxborough, though imperfect, has sufficient talent to be among those 8 to 12 good NFL teams. They just need to execute. It's simple to say, difficult to do.

-The Commodore

Pat O's Super Bowl XLV preview

OK. I admit it. I flip-flopped about this Packers-Steelers Super Bowl in a way that would make Glenn Ordway proud this week.

Up until Wednesday, I thought there was no way the Steelers lose Super Bowl XLV. Perhaps it’s their recent legacy that led me to that conclusion. Similar to how many people had visions of Tom Brady’s previous February heroics going into the Giants-Patriots Super Bowl in 2007 (beyond the 18-0 record), I just kept thinking about how the Steelers are the team with the hardware of late.

The problem with that logic, as I’ve learned as a Pats fan who’s been punched in face repeatedly since 2005, is that the Steelers winning two Super Bowls since 2005 has nothing to do with what happens tonight. After giving it more thought, I like the Packers more and more in this game for a few, somewhat obvious, reasons:

* Even with Maurkice Pouncey in there, the Steelers were going to have problems with Cullen Jenkins and B.J. Raji. Pouncey’s injury makes things even tougher for the Steelers’ line.

* This has been said over and over, but the Packers’ ability to spread opponents out like the Patriots did to the Steelers this year bodes well for them. I’m not saying it translates to Aaron Rodgers throwing for 400 yards, but it will certainly make their unimpressive running game less of a factor.

* As great as Ben Roethlisberger is when outside of the pocket, he does have the propensity to fumble with 28 over the past three years. I’d be shocked if the Packers don’t send Charles Woodson (7 sacks the past three years) on a corner blitz at least once or twice. If you’re wondering why I said earlier that past performance has no bearing on today’s game, yet I’m referencing stats from three years ago, it’s because individual trends are the ones to keep an eye on.

Key to the game: Rashard Mendenhall. If he runs hard between tackles like he did against the Jets, I don't see the Steelers losing this game. The problem is that he hasn't shown great consistency against the top defenses. How he plays will help determine how long Rodgers is on the field for and how the Packer secondary approaches coverage for Mike Wallace.

The Packers and Steelers are evenly matched in terms of coaching and key injuries. The Steelers are missing Pouncey and Aaron Smith while the Packers are missing (among others) Jermichael Finley and Ryan Grant. Warren Sapp made the point on Inside the NFL yesterday that we haven’t seen a bad Super Bowl in a long time. For once, I agreed with that overrated dumpster. That trend will continue this year and it’ll be a great game.

Even though I suck at predictions, I’m going with Green Bay 31-28. Rodgers pulls a Roethlisberger and drives down the field for a game-winning touchdown late. I look forward to Pearce losing something for once.