Pat O's Super Bowl XLV preview

OK. I admit it. I flip-flopped about this Packers-Steelers Super Bowl in a way that would make Glenn Ordway proud this week.

Up until Wednesday, I thought there was no way the Steelers lose Super Bowl XLV. Perhaps it’s their recent legacy that led me to that conclusion. Similar to how many people had visions of Tom Brady’s previous February heroics going into the Giants-Patriots Super Bowl in 2007 (beyond the 18-0 record), I just kept thinking about how the Steelers are the team with the hardware of late.

The problem with that logic, as I’ve learned as a Pats fan who’s been punched in face repeatedly since 2005, is that the Steelers winning two Super Bowls since 2005 has nothing to do with what happens tonight. After giving it more thought, I like the Packers more and more in this game for a few, somewhat obvious, reasons:

* Even with Maurkice Pouncey in there, the Steelers were going to have problems with Cullen Jenkins and B.J. Raji. Pouncey’s injury makes things even tougher for the Steelers’ line.

* This has been said over and over, but the Packers’ ability to spread opponents out like the Patriots did to the Steelers this year bodes well for them. I’m not saying it translates to Aaron Rodgers throwing for 400 yards, but it will certainly make their unimpressive running game less of a factor.

* As great as Ben Roethlisberger is when outside of the pocket, he does have the propensity to fumble with 28 over the past three years. I’d be shocked if the Packers don’t send Charles Woodson (7 sacks the past three years) on a corner blitz at least once or twice. If you’re wondering why I said earlier that past performance has no bearing on today’s game, yet I’m referencing stats from three years ago, it’s because individual trends are the ones to keep an eye on.

Key to the game: Rashard Mendenhall. If he runs hard between tackles like he did against the Jets, I don't see the Steelers losing this game. The problem is that he hasn't shown great consistency against the top defenses. How he plays will help determine how long Rodgers is on the field for and how the Packer secondary approaches coverage for Mike Wallace.

The Packers and Steelers are evenly matched in terms of coaching and key injuries. The Steelers are missing Pouncey and Aaron Smith while the Packers are missing (among others) Jermichael Finley and Ryan Grant. Warren Sapp made the point on Inside the NFL yesterday that we haven’t seen a bad Super Bowl in a long time. For once, I agreed with that overrated dumpster. That trend will continue this year and it’ll be a great game.

Even though I suck at predictions, I’m going with Green Bay 31-28. Rodgers pulls a Roethlisberger and drives down the field for a game-winning touchdown late. I look forward to Pearce losing something for once.