TOP 25 UNDER 25 - #5 Felix Hernandez

FELIX HERNANDEZ - Starting Pitcher, Seattle Mariners

We're finally down to the top 5 athletes under the age of 25. Felix Hernandez is another star athlete stuck in a terrible situation. Playing for the Mariners in the most remote MLB city (great town, just not a major media market and far from other MLB teams) has led to Hernandez being mired in obscurity. Hardcore seam heads and saber metrics statisticians, who live in their pajamas and eat a diet consisting of spaghettios, regard Hernandez as the best pitcher in baseball. However, since he plays on one of the worst teams in the league that is essentially devoid of national attention outside of the occasional Ichiro highlight, he is a bit unknown to those who don't follow the game so closely.

That's not going to hold him down on this list, however. After becoming the starting pitcher with the fewest wins to ever win a Cy Young Award in 2010, Hernandez has finally started to get some of the attention he deserves. Unfortunately for the rest of baseball I highly doubt that he'll remain on the irrelevant Mariners very much longer. He'll probably be spending his Octobers helping some team win WS titles in the near future.

Before the world had even heard of King Felix, as he's known to his loyal followers, Hernandez was just your average teenage Venezuelan - if the average 14 yr old Venezuelan could throw 94 mph! Discovered by a Mariners scout at that tender age, the team began following him closely and once he had graduated from high school he signed his first pro contract. He chose the Mariners because Freddy Garcia was his favorite player and was playing for Seattle at the time. Oh youngsters and their silly role models.

From there it was a quick jaunt through the Mariners' farm system. In 2003 he tore through the lower levels, and by 2005 he was in AAA and was considered the best pitching prospect in baseball. He made his major league debut on August 4 of that year and finished the season. He wears number 34 for Seattle to honor Freddy Garcia, who has since bounced around the big leagues with various clubs.

2006 marked Hernandez's first full season of big league action, and he has been nothing short of individually dominant since - despite Seattle being a constant doormat in the A.L. West. In order, since 2006, their record has been 78-84, 88-74, 61-101, 85-77, and 61-101 again in 2010. Gross. And yet, Hernandez has managed a Win-Loss record of 71-53, nearly 20 games over .500. Remarkable.

Among his big league achievements are last year's Cy Young Award and 2010 league leader in ERA. He has also pitched an immaculate inning, where the pitcher strikes out the side on 9 pitches - he is only the 13th pitcher to accomplish that feat. He also has managed to strike out 4 batters in one inning - an incredibly rare feat that requires a hitter to reach base following a strike out on a wild pitch.

I pointed out a lot of Hernandez's amazing accomplishments in a post near the end of last MLB season.

At just 24 years old, he is among baseball's most dominant starting pitchers, and along with guys like Tim Lincecum, David Price and Stephen Strasburg will be ushering in the new era of the pitcher as baseball continues to distance itself from the era of steroids and behemoths with size 9 hats that made bats look like toothpicks. Were Hernandez on a really good team he could be a threat for 300 wins, something that baseball may not see again for a long while due to a number of factors. Unfortunately, he's wasted a few too many good seasons with the Mariners and will need to start averaging 20 wins a year right now and do it for a long time to have a good shot. Not likely. Mariners fans are hoping they can somehow put some semblance of a decent team around him before he bolts for a major market contender, or they're forced to trade him. But baseball fans will just be happy to enjoy his dominance, wherever it may happen.

MLB Previews: Seattle Mariners

Offense:
1. RF - Ichiro Suzuki
2. 3B - Chone Figgins
3. CF - Franklin Gutierrez
4. DH - Jack Cust/Milton Bradley
5. 1B - Justin Smoak
6. C - Miguel Olivo
7. LF - Michael Saunders/Milton Bradley
8. 2B - Brendan Ryan
9. SS - Jack Wilson

Obviously this is atrocious, but the good news is that this offense can't get any worse. Last year they finished last in the majors in runs, hits, doubles, triples, home runs, batting average, on base percentage, and slugging. But there is hope, Chone Figgins has to play better then he did last when he batted .259, Justin Smoak will play better with a full year, and don't get used to Brendan Ryan and Jack Wilson at the end of the line up as minor league superstar Dustin Ackley will be playing 2nd and Nick Franklin will both be finishing the year as the starting 2nd and ss by the end of the year.

Pitching:
1. Felix Hernandez
2. Jason Vargas
3. Doug Fister
4. Erik Bedard
5. Luke French
CL: David Aardisma

There pitching staff is this as of right now but expect Michael Pineda to start the season as the 5th or come into the season as the 5th. Obviously Felix Hernandez is great, he's the best pitcher in baseball and the reigning Cy Young winner (should be 2 time Cy Young winner if you ask me, Fuck Grienke) Jason Vargas and Doug Fister are both serviceable guys with era's under 4.2. Erik Bedard is a giant question mark and is do for another let down season and I'm waiting for Aardisma to suck.

Overall:
I like the future of Seattle and I do think they improve somewhat this year but I don't see them being able to turn it completely around. But Felix walks away with the Cy Young again.

70-92

King Felix Wins Cy Young

Felix Hernandez may have only won 13 games, but hell, he deserves the Cy Young. The 13 wins by Hernandez marked the fewest for a Cy Young starter in a full season, Tim Lincecum set the record last year with 15 victories for the San Francisco Giants.

"The Seattle Mariners ace earned the AL Cy Young Award on Thursday despite a modest 13-12 record. His major league-leading 2.27 ERA and superior stats put him far ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays' David Price and the New York Yankees' CC Sabathia and their impressive win-loss numbers."ESPN

Felix Hernandez is the only player I like better than Dice K, so I'm alright with him winning it as I assume they are best friends in real life. I would sell my soul to the devil to have Felix on the Red Sox, I would trade every prospect the Red Sox have in order to get him.

But the voters got it right, they looked at the numbers instead of a win/loss record and determined that Felix has better numbers then any pitcher out their. He has had bad luck in Seattle where they can't score runs. But the thing that puts him over the top is how he constantly out dueled CC and the Yankees, the Red Sox and other playoff teams.

Felix is the best pitcher in baseball and it's good to see he gets something for it.

A Closer Look at the AL Cy Young Award

For decades the Baseball Writers Association of America has been handing out the Cy Young award to the best pitcher in each league. And for decades the most heavily weighed factor has been a pitcher's win total. It was long considered an atrocity if a pitcher with less than 20 wins was given the award. In fact, that has only happened a combined 24 times in the AL and NL since the award has been given (not counting RP winners.) Last year's winner, Zack Greinke tied the all-time low in wins for an AL Cy Young winner with 16.

Recent trends and developments in statistics and saber metrics (insert nerd joke here) have become wide spread enough that some writers are beginning to consider them more heavily when voting for the winner. (See Greinke, Zack K.C. Royals 2009) No longer, does the award get decided by archaic statistics like Wins, Losses, ERA and BAA (batting average against). We now have things like BABIP (batting average per balls in play) and WAR (a measurement of a player's contributions to a win compared to a replacement player...Wins Against Replacement). Basically, some nerds who jerk off to baseball games came up with some pretty sweet statistics to try and more accurately measure a player's performance by removing factors out of his control.

The AL Cy Young award is, by most accounts a race between two pitchers. C.C. Sabatthia of the Yankees and Felix Hernandez of the Mariners, although some might include David Price and Clay Buchloz of the Rays and Red Sox, respectively. A few fools might even try to throw Trevor Cahill in the mix, although without 200 IP he's not in my consideration. For the sake, of brevity and simplicity we'll keep this comparison between the top two in my consideration, C.C. and King Felix.

The Argument for C.C. Sabatthia

C.C. knows how to win. Or so Yankees fans and other ignoramouses will try and tell you. However, that is an outdated way of looking at things. C.C. greatly benefits from playing for the Yankees, arguably the best offense in baseball. This is not to say, he's not great and isn't deserving of being in the conversation. He is, in fact near the top of many advanced statistics. WHIP, Percentage of runners left on base, and Wins Against Replacement (WAR) are just a few categories in which he excels (but doesn't lead).

The Argument for Felix Hernandez

King Felix should be one guy who is very glad that an army of basement nerds have come up with the statistics I referenced above. Without them, people might look at his 13-12 record and think he has no chance at winning the Cy Young award. However, a close look reveals that King Felix has been by most measurements the most dominant hurler in the league. He is the leader in Quality Starts (6 IP or more and 3 ER or less) and Innings Pitched. He also has 6 complete games, 4 more than C.C.

Side by Side

Basically, Felix leads Sabatthia in every category that is not dependent on his team, ie. Wins and Losses.

Runs Allowed
C.C. - 92
Felix - 80

Strikeouts
C.C. - 197
Felix - 232

Wins When Team Scores 4 runs or Less (4 is about league average)
C.C. - 6
Felix - 8

When Team Scores 3 runs or less
C.C. - 1
Felix - 2

WAR (Wins Against Replacement)
C.C. - 5.4
Felix - 6.0

If those stats aren't enough to convince you take a look at some of this anecdotal evidence.

In 7 of Hernandez's last 13 starts the Mariners have scored ZERO RUNS! What?!

He has pitched into the 7th inning or better in 24 consecutive starts.

If you give him 4 runs or more, he doesn't lose. He hasn't lost once in that scenario all year long.

He has given up 17 Unearned runs this season. Meaning that those 80 R mentioned earlier is really 63 ER. In almost 250 IP!

You can't hold the failings of his teammates against him. King Felix reigns supreme on the mound. The Mariners are the worst run scoring team in the league, barely cracking 500 runs to this point. The Yankees on the other hand are the league leader in runs with over 830 scored so far.

The AL Cy Young should definitely go to King Felix. Let's hope the crusty old writers are all reading fangraph.com!


*NL Cy Young Award debate later this week.

Red Sox 5, Mariners 3 then Mariners 4, Red Sox 2

Doubleheaders suck. It's very difficult to win both games, especially with bullpens constructed as they are. By winning the first game, you usually use up your top relievers. It becomes doubly hard to sweep doubleheaders when you have to jostle your rotation around.

Let's start with Game #1. Josh Beckett was decent. He was great through 6, then fell apart in the 7th, yielding a pair of homers. But that's been the problem with Beckett, hasn't it? When was the last time he put together 20 solid innings in a row? I don't mean 20 innings allowing 2 runs, nothing that ridiculous. Just 20 innings, scattering some runs here and there, but being consistent.

And it's kind of sad that 6.1 innings and 3 earned runs is now considered a good start for Beckett. That being said, it's technically a Quality Start, and it's his first since August 3rd.

Now to Game 2. Mister Reliable, also known as Daisuke Matsuzaka, had to be scratched from his start against Tampa. So the Sox moved Lester back, and put Wakefield on the mound in the nightcap. Convoluted, eh? But the good news is that Lester gets to go against Tampa Bay. And honestly, even with Lester on the mound, it would've been hard to beat Felix Hernandez.

Hernandez is now 10-10. But get this, last night was his 15th straight Quality Start. 25 of his 28 starts have been Quality. You can't help but feel bad that his talents have been wasted with such a terrible team.

Anyway, it's hard to be upset at splitting a doubleheader, especially considering the strange circumstances surrounding the 2nd game. Then again, the Sox were 6-3 on a homestand against some very beatable teams. Not bad, but not good enough.

They have 3 absolutely vital games down in Tampa Bay this weekend. They must at least win 2. If they lose 2, then the Wild Card/Division is out of reach. But the Sox are 4-8 against the Rays this season.

Jon Lester opposes David Price Friday night.

-The Commodore

Mariners Lock Up Future

Well, it looks like the Sox won't be trading for Felix Hernandez for at least another 5 years. It seems like the Mariners signed Felix to a 5 or 6 year deal between 78 and 100 million dollars. This is a steal for the young stud who got robbed from a cy young last year when he had a 19-5 record with a 2.46 era. It's also kind of cool that the Mariners are going for it by signing Chone Figgins, trading for Cliff Lee and giving the King a huge contract. The Mariners will most likely take control of the AL West because the Angels have lost a lot of people and haven't signed many replacements.

This also helps out my fantasy team Bailamos.

How Good is King Felix?

It's inevitable, and fun. The Sox get eliminated and for a week (or more) all you can think about are the possible acquisitions for the next year's campaign. And the big name being bandied about is Felix Hernandez, a.k.a. King Felix.

Hernandez turns 24 in April. No typo, he'll only be 24. He was 19-5 for a mediocre Seattle squad this year, and registered a 2.49 ERA. He's got 58 career wins in the bank, and has the potential for 200+ more.

Yet people will not want to trade their precious prospects for this potential Pedro Jr. But Hernandez is worth almost the entire Red Sox minor league system. He's younger than some of the guys people here in Boston don't want to use to acquire him. But he's an Ace.

And if you have a rotation of Hernandez-Beckett-Lester-Matsuzaka-Buchholz, you're in the LCS without even trying.

The local morons will disagree with me. "The Sox lost because they didn't score enough runs. We need bats. We have enough pitching. So don't sell the farm to get Hernandez." And while that seems true on the surface, think about this: Did the Sox lose because they didn't have enough offensive might, OR did the Angels win because THEY had great pitching?

Pitching wins. Pitching wins. Pitching wins. Pitching wins. Pitching wins. Pitching wins. Pitching wins. Pitching wins. Pitching wins. Pitching wins. Pitching wins. Pitching wins. Pitching wins. No beer and no TV make Homer go crazy.

Felix Hernandez is worth Jacoby Ellsbury. He's worth several Jacoby Ellsburies. He's worth Bowden, Bard, and all the "untouchable" prospects the Sox have in their nursery.

He might struggle in a more competitive environment. His track record of success is very short. He might not be able to handle postseason baseball. But like I said earlier, he's got the potential to put up 200 more W's in his career. And that's what it's all about.

-The Commodore

DP's Half Assed Cy Young Assessment

Basically this is a two person race but to appease the stupid Yankees fans I'll throw CC in.

Let's see you have Greinke, King Felix and CC.

Zach Grienke is 15-8 with a 2.08 and 229 Ks

Felix Hernandez is 17-5 with a 2.49 era and 207 Ks

CC Sabathia is 18-7 with a 3.31 era and 186 Ks

The only way I'd give the award is to Zack Greinke is if his era somehow dips below 2. But in my world where I wear Felix Hernandez sunglasses, I think Felix should and will win it. Felix not only has pitched phenomenally he has shut out the Yankees, Angels, and Red Sox ALL at home. That's pretty unbelievable. Also, even though his era is slightly higher than Zack, he has more wins, less losses and just all around way cooler of a person. CC is fat and doesn't deserve anything.

Red Sox To Make Another Run At Felix Hernandez

"The Red Sox will pursue a deal for Mariners ace Felix Hernandez this offseason, reports the Boston Globe. The Globe said the Red Sox explored deals for Hernandez, Cliff Lee, and Roy Halladay over the summer, and will now step up their pursuit for King Felix because his price tag might be too expensive for the Mariners (ESPN)."

Seattle is not going to be able to keep this guy, adn their are few teams in the league that could offer what the Red Sox could (i.e. Buchholz, Bowden, ect). I am starting to really become a believer that King Felix will come to the Sox. If that was to happen and the Sox had a rotation that looked something like Beckett, Lester, Felix, Dice-K, and the Wake, you are talking about maybe one of the best rotation ever put together. We'll have to wait till the offseason, but just something to keep an eye on.

Top 25 Under 25: #10 Felix Hernandez

What more can you say about this kid, he was dubbed King Felix at the age of 19, and thus far, he has lived up to the hype. Hernández throws a fastball that has been clocked as high as 100 mph, although he does not rely entirely on overpowering velocity. Instead he often uses a two-seam fastball, which comes in just a bit slower but with more movement and sink as it approaches the batter. His repertoire of pitches also includes a hard curve, a changeup, and a slider, all of which he can throw extremely well (he avoided the slider early in his career because the team was concerned it might injure his arm). When at his best, Hernández can induce a steady procession of groundball outs and strikeouts, with very few balls being hit in the air.

Already in his short career he has 772 Ks, and 52 wins (he would have more but he's lame.) He has been nothing short of spectacular this year with 13-5 with a 2.77 era and 179 Ks and was selected to his first of many all-star game.

The Sox Were Close To Getting Felix Hernandez

Not that it really matters now, but DP's wet dream almost came true....

"It has since come out that Epstein and Towers were discussing a trade that would send home run slugger Adrian Gonzalez to Boston. But wait. Apparently, Epstein wants Hernandez more than anybody, even Gonzalez. So, the three teams start discussing a possible three-way deal with Seattle that would send Gonzalez to the Mariners, along with Buchholz and a couple of other Red Sox prospects.

The Red Sox would get Hernandez.

And the Padres would get Brandon Morrow, Phillippe Aumont and Carlos Triunfel from Seattle, along with a couple of other top Boston prospects.

But it never happened. The Mariners apparently nixed it, feeling it would not benefit them in the long-term (Seattle Times)."

That deal is hard to even imagine in my head with all the moving pieces. The Sox would basically empty their entire minor league system for Felix. Which as much as it pains me to admit it I would do in a second. Felix would be the new Pedro if he came here. The only reason he isn't a 20 game winner yet is because Seattle's offense is awful. In the end it doesn't matter, but it fun to think about...

Felix Hernandez Avoids Arbitration

The Seattle Mariners have signed pitcher Felix Hernandez, who was eligible for arbitration for the first time, to a one-year contract worth $3.8 million.

I love Felix and believe that he will be the greatest pitchers in baseball, but up to this point I haven't been impressed. Felix has always been on my fantasy team because of my loyalty towards him, but he always seems to let me down. I won't put all the blame on him due to him being stuck on a shitty Mariners team, but he never breaks out like I think he will. Last year everyone was excited to see what him and Bedard could do, but both had disappointing seasons. There was speculation last year that King Felix may be traded in order to rebuild, and that might not be the worst idea.