A Closer Look at the AL Cy Young Award

For decades the Baseball Writers Association of America has been handing out the Cy Young award to the best pitcher in each league. And for decades the most heavily weighed factor has been a pitcher's win total. It was long considered an atrocity if a pitcher with less than 20 wins was given the award. In fact, that has only happened a combined 24 times in the AL and NL since the award has been given (not counting RP winners.) Last year's winner, Zack Greinke tied the all-time low in wins for an AL Cy Young winner with 16.

Recent trends and developments in statistics and saber metrics (insert nerd joke here) have become wide spread enough that some writers are beginning to consider them more heavily when voting for the winner. (See Greinke, Zack K.C. Royals 2009) No longer, does the award get decided by archaic statistics like Wins, Losses, ERA and BAA (batting average against). We now have things like BABIP (batting average per balls in play) and WAR (a measurement of a player's contributions to a win compared to a replacement player...Wins Against Replacement). Basically, some nerds who jerk off to baseball games came up with some pretty sweet statistics to try and more accurately measure a player's performance by removing factors out of his control.

The AL Cy Young award is, by most accounts a race between two pitchers. C.C. Sabatthia of the Yankees and Felix Hernandez of the Mariners, although some might include David Price and Clay Buchloz of the Rays and Red Sox, respectively. A few fools might even try to throw Trevor Cahill in the mix, although without 200 IP he's not in my consideration. For the sake, of brevity and simplicity we'll keep this comparison between the top two in my consideration, C.C. and King Felix.

The Argument for C.C. Sabatthia

C.C. knows how to win. Or so Yankees fans and other ignoramouses will try and tell you. However, that is an outdated way of looking at things. C.C. greatly benefits from playing for the Yankees, arguably the best offense in baseball. This is not to say, he's not great and isn't deserving of being in the conversation. He is, in fact near the top of many advanced statistics. WHIP, Percentage of runners left on base, and Wins Against Replacement (WAR) are just a few categories in which he excels (but doesn't lead).

The Argument for Felix Hernandez

King Felix should be one guy who is very glad that an army of basement nerds have come up with the statistics I referenced above. Without them, people might look at his 13-12 record and think he has no chance at winning the Cy Young award. However, a close look reveals that King Felix has been by most measurements the most dominant hurler in the league. He is the leader in Quality Starts (6 IP or more and 3 ER or less) and Innings Pitched. He also has 6 complete games, 4 more than C.C.

Side by Side

Basically, Felix leads Sabatthia in every category that is not dependent on his team, ie. Wins and Losses.

Runs Allowed
C.C. - 92
Felix - 80

Strikeouts
C.C. - 197
Felix - 232

Wins When Team Scores 4 runs or Less (4 is about league average)
C.C. - 6
Felix - 8

When Team Scores 3 runs or less
C.C. - 1
Felix - 2

WAR (Wins Against Replacement)
C.C. - 5.4
Felix - 6.0

If those stats aren't enough to convince you take a look at some of this anecdotal evidence.

In 7 of Hernandez's last 13 starts the Mariners have scored ZERO RUNS! What?!

He has pitched into the 7th inning or better in 24 consecutive starts.

If you give him 4 runs or more, he doesn't lose. He hasn't lost once in that scenario all year long.

He has given up 17 Unearned runs this season. Meaning that those 80 R mentioned earlier is really 63 ER. In almost 250 IP!

You can't hold the failings of his teammates against him. King Felix reigns supreme on the mound. The Mariners are the worst run scoring team in the league, barely cracking 500 runs to this point. The Yankees on the other hand are the league leader in runs with over 830 scored so far.

The AL Cy Young should definitely go to King Felix. Let's hope the crusty old writers are all reading fangraph.com!


*NL Cy Young Award debate later this week.