Chalk one up for ol' Jesus! - 1st Day Action (Updated)

Old Dominion knocked off Notre Dame, just as I predicted in the first 6-11 upset of the tourney. Luke Harangody struggled only scoring once in the whole game, and that basket came within the final 30 seconds. Weak sauce. He sucks. Notre Dame sucks. Go ODU!

Florida and BYU are in OT. I have Florida in this one. Jimmer Fredette has been great going to the hoop, but not so great from the perimeter. Boynton is on fire for the Gators, but may be gassed after checking Fredette all day. We'll see how it plays out. Updates to come.

*UPDATE #1*
WOW! First day action is off the hook. All you suckers at work, I feel bad. Florida and BYU was all knotted up at 81 when Fredette grabbed a long rebound off a missed 3 and looked to be pushing the ball hard the other way. Vernon Macklin of the Gators reached in and poked it away and Boynton grabbed it with 20 seconds left. After the timeout Florida couldn't get a look and the game went to double OT. Boynton fouled out in the 2nd OT with 27 points. Florida was broke from 3 without Boynton and BYU had a lot more energy in the extra period. getting to lose balls and forcing bad shots from the Gators. Fredette drained a big three to put BYU up 7 and pretty much nailed the coffin shut. Final score #7 BYU 99 - #10 FLA 92
*Note - As a youngster, Fredette was routinely taken to prison pick-up games by his older brother who thought he needed to play tougher. It worked. How do you get into prison pick-up games???!

Villanova was down most of the game against Robert Morris, the 15 seed, and cut the lead to 2 points with less than 4 minutes to play. It was all tied at 58 and 'Nova held for the last shot of regulation. Reynolds drove and took a bad shot which was deflected out of bounds. And with .9 on the clock the Wildcats got a great look on an alley-oop pass but missed. To OT we go! Villanova lead most of the OT and 3 RMU players fouled out. RMU kept it close, but Reynolds nailed a HUGE three with the shotclock running out and about a minute left to play in OT to put Nova up 4. Robert Morris than stole the ball after an inbounds pass and got a lay-up to cut it to 1. With a 3 point lead Reggie Redding pulled up on a clean break-away instead of taking the easy lay-up and missed the first free-throw. RMU then brought the ball down and made a 3 to again, cut it to 1! Reynolds calmly made 2 free throws to seal the victory for Villanova. This game was exciting!

More updates to come.

*UPDATE #2*
Well, I didn't pick it in my bracket but I mentioned it in my Cinderella post. Murray State knocks off Vanderbilt with a dramatic finish. Danero Thomas nailed a 15 ft J with the buzzer sounding to oust the Commodores. Vandy had the lead with just over 12 tics on the clock, and Murray State rushed a 3 but the ball went out of bounds off Vandy. Murray State got the final shot off and Thomas made it count.
Final Score : #13 Murray State 66 - #4 Vanderbilt 65.

Baylor defeated Sam Houston State in a pretty uneventful game. And Kansas State is destroying North Texas.

#7 Richmond is currently trailing #10 St Mary's. A team many analysts like, but one that Jesus did not believe in much. We'll see.

More updates after that game.

*UPDATE #3*
The Gaels of St Mary's held on to beat Richmond 80-71. Omar Sahman looks to be one of the stars of Round 1 as the big guy paced the Gaels with 29 pts and 12 reb.
#2 Kansas State beat #15 North Texas handedly, 82-62 and it really wasn't that close.

Jesus' Cinderella picks

5-12 UTEP, Utah State, Cornell
We all know about the 5-12 matchup and the number of upsets it can bring. Look no farther than last year's tourney to see the damage that 12 seeds can bring (3 upsets). This year's 5-12 games should be no different. I like 3 of the 5 seeds to have a good chance at an upset, it just comes down to which ones you want to pick. I don't think picking all three would be wise, though it worked out well for me last year.
In the West region I like UTEP to defeat Butler. This has no statistical backing, or actual reasoning behind it. I just hate Butler and have a feeling that they've been overrated all year, based on last year's success and it feels right in my gut. (That can't be underrated in filling out your bracket.) UTEP really isn't that good either, but fuck it...I can't stand the Bulldogs. Go Miners! (Plus that Glory Road movie was on the other day, so that must be a sign - Texas Western would eventually become UTEP).

In the South region I like Utah State to pull the upset over Texas A&M. According to Peter Tiernan's Anatomy of an Upset, a 12 seed who gets 51% of its scoring from the front court and went to the tourney last year has the best chance of being successful. Utah State has one of those sneaky-good squads and could surprise the Aggies, who might be a tad overseeded. This game isn't getting as much hype as the next one, but I think it is a smart pick. Either way I think the winner of this game goes down in the next round, even if it is Sienna, so a wrong pick shouldn't lose too many points.

In the East region I LOVE Cornell over Temple. At first, I didn't but the more I look at it and think about it, the more I think the Big Red not only beat Temple but win two or three games. I won't pick them agaisnt Kentucky, but they gave Kansas all they could handle at home, and the Wildcats are young (and talented) and wreckless. Like Utah State, Cornell fits the bill according to Tiernan. Numbers don't usually lie. Temple struggles to score (not one game in the 80s all season) and though it has worked well for them, they haven't faced a team like Cornell all year. Cornell is one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the nation and have a very good 7 ft center in Jeff Foote. Temple defends the three well, but a team that shoots it exceptionally well can find holes in that zone defense. Some will say that Dunphy coached at Penn and routinely whooped on Cornell, so he's familiar. But he never faced a Cornell team like this so I think you can pretty much throw that out the window. I mentioned that Kansas almost lost at home to Cornell, while Temple was pretty much butt raped by the Jayhawks in Lawrence, losing by 30. GO Big Red!

6-11 San Diego State, Old Dominion
Most likely the 6 seeds prevail in all of these matchups, although Washington statistically speaking has the best shot. I've seen them play this season and I am not that impressed, though preseason they were fairly highly regarded. They face Marquette who I believe will beat them. I do like the possibilities of San Diego State and Old Dominion beating Tennessee and Notre Dame respectively. I hate Notre Dame and that big headed Luke Harangody, and I think they are due for a big upset. Plus, while driving yetsterday and thinking about this very game an eighteen wheeler drove by, and I kid you not, it said Old Dominion freight lines! WOW! I'm thinking about just picking them to win the whole thing. If that's not a sign than there is no God. Wait...that would mean no Jesus...no me. Nevermind. But yea, ODU over ND. Tennessee and Coach Pearl may be susceptible to the upset. If this game gets tight they might freak out because while Prince and Hopson are good, I don't think they have a steady PG.

4-13 Murray State, Siena
I like Murray State and Siena to pull the upset out of the 13 seeds. Murray State fits the mold for a 13 seed upset with frontcourt/backcourt scoring balance and a tourney experienced and a big scoring margin. Not only that, but their opponent in Vanderbilt fits the mold of a typical 4th seed victim in that they lack tourney experience. As for Siena, they had a lot of success in the last two tournaments pulling upset wins over Vanderbilt and Ohio State. I think they could continue that over a Purdue squad without it's best all-around player in Robbie Hummel.

That's all for the first round. I'll be back to update the brackets and possible 2nd round upsets after the week. Hope you all get the days off from work!

Bracket Busters! Jesus' tips for winning that office bracket pool.

So, you've got that office bracket, you've watched all the countless hours of Hubert Davis, Doug Gottleib, Bobby Knight, Digger Phelps and all the other goons over at ESPN telling you who is going to win, and you're all set to fill out that bracket to try and win the big bucks at the office this year. You think you know it all...wait. Forget what you've heard (most of it) and read this before you fill that sucker out.
There are plenty of articles out there that will give you lots of great info about filling out your bracket, but no one has time to sort through that much information...unless you're a bookie or a college basketball writer. So, let Jesus break it all down for you. I'll try to take all the good info from those articles in reference and compile it in one brief 10 step process. Here goes...

Rule #1) Upset-schmupset
There are far fewer upsets than the average college basketball fan, or rather the average filler-outer-of-bracket, thinks. We call it March Madness because it is "madness" how any team can win it all. For all the boo-hooing about college football, you could really argue that smaller schools have a better chance of winning there. Are there more big teams with a shot of winning in basketball? Sure, but TCU and Bosie State are NEVER winning this basketball tournament, and they both had legitimate chances (if things went their way) this season to get into that game. Granted, it is a tournament format, so technically every team gets "a chance", but who are we kidding? Lehigh is not winning their first game, let alone this tournament! I digress.
The 2009 tournament saw only 5 "upsets", second fewest ever to the 3 from 2007. (This would be upset meaning a gap of at least four seeds. 7-10, 8-9 games don't count.) Recent tournaments suggest a trend that upsets are becoming fewer and fewer. This year projects to be a slight uptick, due to the lack of standout teams. But, we thought that last year as well and only saw 5. 2008 was the year all four #1 seeds made the Final Four!
What does this all mean to you? Well, you have to really spot your upsets well and don't pick too many. Read further for more details on how to pick your upsets.

Rule #2) 12 seeds are golden!
Since 1999 12 seeds have beaten at least one 5 seed in every year but two. Last year, 3 of them were victorious and yours truly had all three pegged! One 12 seed is usually a decent bet to make the sweet 16 as well, like Arizona did last year.
The key to picking these games is not so much finding the right 12 seeds as it is finding the upset victims. When you get your bracket and sit down to watch all that analysis. Pay close attention to the 5 seeds. Are they pissed about not being ranked higher? Did they ride some kind of late season run to the 5 seed? Look for ACC and Big 10 teams, and the occasional Big East squad to do the choking. Those teams who think they should have been seeded higher are not ready to play and ripe for the pickin'. (My round 1 upset picks will be listed at the bottom of this column.)

Rule #3) Wish upon a star!
This tournament is all set up for a star to lead his team deep into the tourney. Seemingly every year we have a few teams who are led to at least a couple wins by their star players. Carmelo Anthony, Michael Beasley, Scottie Reynolds, Levance Fields, Danny Manning just to name a few, have put their squads on their backs and taken them for magical rides. In fact, this tourney is so star driven that every team except two since 1979 has had at least one McDonald's All-American on their squad. Of 1-3 seeds this year, only West Virginia and Baylor do not sport a Mickey D's on their roster. Look for those teams to be bounced. Plus, Huggins is a choke-artist.
Notable star-quality players to watch (and possibly carry their teams):
Kentucky - John Wall (duh) and DeMarcus Cousins. (Patterson is also a former McD's All-Am.)
Kansas - Sherron Collins
Villanova - Scottie Reynolds
Duke - Kyle Singler (gay) John Scheyer (gayer)
Oklahoma State - James Anderson
Tennessee - Scottie Hopson
Georgetown - Vernon Macklin and Greg Monroe (not a McD's alum, but a stud no doubt.)
Michigan State - Kalin Lucas
Ohio State - Evan Turner (super-stud)

Rule #4) Don't forget about coach
To me, it is just as important who is coaching the team as who is on the floor during March Madness. Many coaches have a track record, and if you're going to let your money ride on an unproven coach in March you may want to think twice. Here are some of the choke artists:
Bob Huggins (West Virginia) - Yes, he's made the Final Four once, almost 20 years ago. His resume is FILLED with first and second round exits...12 to be exact.
Rick Barnes (Texas) - In seven of his ten years at Texas, the Longhorns went on to lose to a lower seed in the NCAA Tournament. Choked up a win over Duke last year.
Mike Krewsherweski (Duke) - I don't know how to spell his name, and I don't care. He did most of his winning in the 90s and it is 2010. His recent tournaments have not been excellent, marred by many early exits. Granted, this years team seems legit, though the ACC was pretty weak. Time will tell.
Bruce Pearl (Tennessee) - Not really a choker, per se, but never made it past Sweet 16. Don't expect this to be the year.

Here are some of the really good ones:
Billy Donovan (Florida) - .759 tournament win percentage (best active)
Jay Wright (Villanova) - 4 sweet 16s, 2 elite 8s and one final four. not bad.
Bill Self (Kansas) - Used to be a guy on the other list, but recent tournaments have lost that rep.
Rick Pitino (Louisville) - Three different schools in the Final Four. Proceed with caution though, this L'Ville team is not that stellar. I smell an early exit.
Jim Boeheim (Syracuse) - 25 tourney appearance and 13 Sweet 16s. Consistent.
Tom Izzo (Michigan State) - This guy always gets his team deep. Any four year player under this guy has reached a Final Four. Wow.

Rule #5) On guard!
This is a guard's tournament. Sure, some big men have taken their team deep, but I'll give you 30 seconds to name me a big man who has led his team all the way without having a great guard on his team...didn't think so.
Scottie Reynolds led his team to the Final Four last year with his stellar play, and Hansbrough might have been the big name, but that was Lawson's team. Bottom line, without a great ball-handler who can put up big assist-to-turnover numbers your team is not getting anywhere. Good teams without stellar guard play this year:
West Virginia
Georgetown
Ohio State (swing-man, Evan Turner could be good enough to overcome this. We'll see.)
Purdue
Look for these teams to make a relatively early exit, since they have no great guards to rely on. When the going gets tough you need that steady PG to keep the train rollin'.

Rule #6) A bracket is not won in a day
Sounds simple, but it is SO true. Last year, I missed only one first round game, but came up way short in the next two rounds which obviously killed my bracket. The first round has the most potential upset games, but is round two and the sweet sixteen where the big money gets made. Since 1985 there have been 600 second rd 2 and sweet 16 games played, and 402 have been potential upsets. Of those 402 there have been 94 upset wins. That's 23%! Not bad. However, it's not as bad as it might look for high seeds. Top 3 seeds are 231-19 against 1st rd dark horses. In other words wait til the later rounds to pick you upsets of top teams. The last 1-3 seed to lose in the first rd was Iowa State in 2006. Don't count on a 1-3 seed losing in round 1. But there may be a few to go down in rd two and the sweet 16. A 2-7 matchup in round 2 is a good place to look for an upset.


Rule #7) Don't bet against #1
This is kind of a continuation of the last rule, but #1 seeds are not good picks to lose until later in the tournament. Obviously, they've never lost to a #16 in round 1 and that will continue this year. And in rd 2 they are 29-9 and 43-3 against 8 and 9 seeds respectively. In the Sweet 16 they are 21-9 vs 4 seeds and 22-5 vs 5 seeds, and 13-0 vs 12 seeds. Basically, #1 seeds dominate the first three rounds. If you pick against them early you could be burned out of a lot of potential bracket points, so don't do it. Unless it is Duke. They will probably be the first 1 to lose to a 16. (J/K)


Rule #8) Cover your ears!
Don't listen to all the pundits and so-called experts out there who will tell you how to fill out your bracket. Most of those clowns don't watch nearly as much basketball as they'd like you to believe and their brackets are usually toast after two or three rounds because they ignore rules like the ones I have proposed here. Do your own research. Don't let Digger and his fancy hi-liter color coordination make you pick New Mexico instead of Marquette if that's what you'd like. Those guys at ESPN are to busy sexually harassing women to know what is going on. If you follow any of them, make sure it is the super nerdy ones like Andy Katz and guys who never played or coached. They do the most research and are pretty unbiased. (You know Digger's picking Notre Dame to go deep!)

Rule #9) Vegas knows
The people setting the lines in Vegas aren't making money hand over fist for no reason. They know what they're talking about. If you get to a game where you're just not sure what to do (8-9 games, 7-10 games) go with the Vegas favorite. They're usually right and do more research than anyone. For the record, it is not always the higher seed as some might think. I believe last year even had Arizona as the favorite in the 12-5 game in which they were victorious. And I can remember several 7-10 games in recent memory where the 10 was favored. So check those lines!

Rule #10) When all else fails...go with the chick method
Cool cities, favorite schools and mascots, etc. This is how girls (even my mom) fill out brackets, and you know what? They usually do pretty well. The Sports Guy made this method famous by posting his wife's weekly football picks a couple years ago, and she did better than he did! My mom's bracket is usually pretty good, until she gets to the end and she has Boston College in the Final Four (because "she likes Al Skinner"). Anyway, this method involves picking games like Clemson/Missouri in this way: "Well, they're both Tigers, so that won't work. Clemson is in South Carolina, which is nice this time of year, so those boys are probably in good moods. Missouri can be kind of cold, and I bet it is pretty boring. They might be drinking a lot. They'll be sluggish. I'll go with Clemson." Eesh! What a way to fill it out. But you'll be pissed when your girlfriend nails that 1st round upset you never saw coming because "a Gator would beat a Cougar any day!"

That's all folks. Happy Bracket picking. This is the greatest and least productive work-week in America. Offices all over the country will be on virtual vacation. Enjoy it, and may your brackets look good til the end, so you don't give up.

My 1st rd upset picks, after first glance at the bracket:

1 Duke vs 16 play-in winner. Just kidding. But, fuck the Dukies.

For real:
Old Dominion over Notre Dame
UTEP over Butler

My first look, really looks like the first round won't see many upsets. The 2nd could have more though. I'll have updates later this week.


I will be updating this after further research before Thursday's games.