Jesus' Cinderella picks

5-12 UTEP, Utah State, Cornell
We all know about the 5-12 matchup and the number of upsets it can bring. Look no farther than last year's tourney to see the damage that 12 seeds can bring (3 upsets). This year's 5-12 games should be no different. I like 3 of the 5 seeds to have a good chance at an upset, it just comes down to which ones you want to pick. I don't think picking all three would be wise, though it worked out well for me last year.
In the West region I like UTEP to defeat Butler. This has no statistical backing, or actual reasoning behind it. I just hate Butler and have a feeling that they've been overrated all year, based on last year's success and it feels right in my gut. (That can't be underrated in filling out your bracket.) UTEP really isn't that good either, but fuck it...I can't stand the Bulldogs. Go Miners! (Plus that Glory Road movie was on the other day, so that must be a sign - Texas Western would eventually become UTEP).

In the South region I like Utah State to pull the upset over Texas A&M. According to Peter Tiernan's Anatomy of an Upset, a 12 seed who gets 51% of its scoring from the front court and went to the tourney last year has the best chance of being successful. Utah State has one of those sneaky-good squads and could surprise the Aggies, who might be a tad overseeded. This game isn't getting as much hype as the next one, but I think it is a smart pick. Either way I think the winner of this game goes down in the next round, even if it is Sienna, so a wrong pick shouldn't lose too many points.

In the East region I LOVE Cornell over Temple. At first, I didn't but the more I look at it and think about it, the more I think the Big Red not only beat Temple but win two or three games. I won't pick them agaisnt Kentucky, but they gave Kansas all they could handle at home, and the Wildcats are young (and talented) and wreckless. Like Utah State, Cornell fits the bill according to Tiernan. Numbers don't usually lie. Temple struggles to score (not one game in the 80s all season) and though it has worked well for them, they haven't faced a team like Cornell all year. Cornell is one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the nation and have a very good 7 ft center in Jeff Foote. Temple defends the three well, but a team that shoots it exceptionally well can find holes in that zone defense. Some will say that Dunphy coached at Penn and routinely whooped on Cornell, so he's familiar. But he never faced a Cornell team like this so I think you can pretty much throw that out the window. I mentioned that Kansas almost lost at home to Cornell, while Temple was pretty much butt raped by the Jayhawks in Lawrence, losing by 30. GO Big Red!

6-11 San Diego State, Old Dominion
Most likely the 6 seeds prevail in all of these matchups, although Washington statistically speaking has the best shot. I've seen them play this season and I am not that impressed, though preseason they were fairly highly regarded. They face Marquette who I believe will beat them. I do like the possibilities of San Diego State and Old Dominion beating Tennessee and Notre Dame respectively. I hate Notre Dame and that big headed Luke Harangody, and I think they are due for a big upset. Plus, while driving yetsterday and thinking about this very game an eighteen wheeler drove by, and I kid you not, it said Old Dominion freight lines! WOW! I'm thinking about just picking them to win the whole thing. If that's not a sign than there is no God. Wait...that would mean no Jesus...no me. Nevermind. But yea, ODU over ND. Tennessee and Coach Pearl may be susceptible to the upset. If this game gets tight they might freak out because while Prince and Hopson are good, I don't think they have a steady PG.

4-13 Murray State, Siena
I like Murray State and Siena to pull the upset out of the 13 seeds. Murray State fits the mold for a 13 seed upset with frontcourt/backcourt scoring balance and a tourney experienced and a big scoring margin. Not only that, but their opponent in Vanderbilt fits the mold of a typical 4th seed victim in that they lack tourney experience. As for Siena, they had a lot of success in the last two tournaments pulling upset wins over Vanderbilt and Ohio State. I think they could continue that over a Purdue squad without it's best all-around player in Robbie Hummel.

That's all for the first round. I'll be back to update the brackets and possible 2nd round upsets after the week. Hope you all get the days off from work!