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Saturday, March 27, 2010

Elite 8 preview


And then there were 8.

The clock finally struck midnight and the carriage has turned back into a pumpkin for Cinderella. Cornell, Northern Iowa and St Mary's all went down in the Sweet 16.
There were more tremendous games in the Sweet 16 as Xavier and Kansas State played one of the best games of the tournament (more on that sort of thing following the tournament) with K-State holding on in 2OT. The Vols knocked off Evan Turner and Ohio State in a great match-up. And Syracuse became the second #1 seed to lose when Butler sent them packing.

The Elite 8 looks to have some great match-ups as well. Saturday features two great games as #2 Kansas State takes on #5 Butler, and #1 Kentucky battles #2 West Virginia.
Sunday will showcase #6 Tennessee against #5 Michigan State and #1 Duke will battle #3 Baylor.
Here's my take on the match-ups and my Final Four preview.

#5 Butler vs #2 Kansas State
Some might call Butler a Cinderella team, and I suppose in some ways they are since they come from a "mid-major" conference. However, despite my railing against them all year they were a top 25 team much of the season and got a #5 seed, so it is hard to call them a Cinderella. They've looked very good so far in this tournament and really impressed in the game against Syracuse. Unlike other mid-major teams in the past who have managed a decent seed this team features some real elite talent. Gordon Hayward, Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard are their three top scorers, and are all pretty good players who stack up well against most teams. On top of that Butler is a small school from Indianapolis. The Final Four this year is being played in...you guessed it, Indianapolis! That would be one heck of a story if they could advance to the next round. However, K-State features arguably the best backcourt in the country which was on full display against Xavier, in Pullen and Clemente.
The two K-State guards should give Butler fits with their quickness and athleticism. In addition to their guards, K-State also has a nice front court. In the first OT against Xavier they went to the post on 7 straight possessions, which shows their versatility. Ultimately, I think K-State will prove too talented and too athletic for Butler to deal with, ruining the great homecoming Final Four story.
Prediction: K-State 76 - Butler 70

#2 West Virginia vs #1 Kentucky
This one should be a fantastic game. The lanky, rangy, athletic Mountaineers against the up and down, run and gun Wildcats led by super frosh John Wall. It will be very interesting to see how he and Bledsoe respond in this game and whether or not they will settle for jumpers when they get in the half-court. They could have problems getting into the paint around those long arms of the WVU perimeter players. On the other hand, they're so quick they could create a lot of reach-in fouls. WVU will definitely try to slow down the pace in this one and dictate tempo in the half-court. Kentucky will try to push any time they get a rebound or a steal, and no one is better at going coast to coast than John Wall. I wasn't sure West Virginia would get out of the last round, but they did. This time I really don't think they're going any further. Kentucky seems to be on a mission to win this whole thing, and I'm not betting against them. Calipari is twice the tourney coach that Huggybear is, not to mention he has the better talent on the floor, even if they are young.
Prediction: Kentucky 81 - West Virginia 72


Sunday Games
#6 Tennessee vs #5 Michigan State
Izzo is at it again, with his Spartans on another great tournament run, despite not having their best player Kalin Lucas. That being said they've only faced on real quality opponent, lucking out and getting 13 seed Northern Iowa in the Sweet 16. I know UNI was playing well, but they don't really match-up against MSU, one of the most talented teams in the country. Tennessee on the other hand does match up, and very well, in my opinion. J.P. Prince and Wayne Chism will give the Spartans fits on defense with their length and athleticism. Prince despite being a forward is their real playmaker and was fantastic against Ohio State. Chism can bump in the post but has some touch and range as well. For the Spartans they will need Durrell Summers to continue to step-up and it would be nice if Raymar Morgan would step up a bit more. He's hit some big shots but hasn't really made a big impact on a game in this tournament. Bottom line, without PG Lucas the Spartans may struggle against a feisty Tennessee team. So far they've been lucky but I think that luck might run out, and Sparty craps out in the Elite 8 while Tennessee dances their way to Indianapolis and their first, and Coach Pearl's first, Final Four. *It should be noted that I consider Izzo the greatest active tournament coach, and while I predict a UT win would not be shocked by an MSU win either.
Prediciton: Tennessee 88 - Michigan State 80 OT


#3 Baylor vs #1 Duke
The Bears look to beat Duke and make their first Final Four appearance, which would be basically a miracle after that program seemed left for dead following the murder scandal of 2003. They are an extremely athletic team and really get after it in their pressure zone defense, forcing turnovers and easy baskets. They made St Mary's and Omar Sahman (the team that beat Villanova) look like a joke in the Sweet 16 with one of the more dominant first half performance of the tournament, holding St Mary's to 17 first half points. I thought it was a girl's score on the ticker. (Baylor's girls team is also fantastic this year) Guards Tweety Carter and LaceDarius (awesome name) Dunn lead the offense and big man Ekpe Udoh (from Oklahoma, not Africa!) is their dominant presence in the post. Hopefully, the big guy will show Zubek and Singler what tough basketball is all about.
For Duke they feature star players and boyfriends (not really) Kyle Singler and John Scheyer as well as Nolan Smith.
Inside Zoubek leads the team in ugly baskets and non-foul calls. Coach K is the whiny, greasy, past his prime coach for the Blue Devils who apparently doesn't know what a "meltdown" means (He started yelling at a reporter in yesterday's press conference for using the word meltdown to describe Duke's recent tourney performances). He and Urban Meyer should really just go get stranded on a deserted island together.
In case you can't tell, this part of the column is completely biased and I hate Duke, and make no apologies for it. This ain't the damn Associated Press. It's dueling couches! In actuality, Coach K is a legend, and runs a damn good program. But...I HATE 'EM! I hope they get waxed by Baylor. If Baylor beats Duke preventing Coach K from another Final Four they will be my new 2nd favorite college basketball team (URI is always #1 in my heart!). Go Bears!
Prediction: Duke 78 - Baylor 75 *fuck!*

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