So, you've got that office bracket, you've watched all the countless hours of Hubert Davis, Doug Gottleib, Bobby Knight, Digger Phelps and all the other goons over at ESPN telling you who is going to win, and you're all set to fill out that bracket to try and win the big bucks at the office this year. You think you know it all...wait. Forget what you've heard (most of it) and read this before you fill that sucker out.
There are plenty of articles out there that will give you lots of great info about filling out your bracket, but no one has time to sort through that much information...unless you're a bookie or a college basketball writer. So, let Jesus break it all down for you. I'll try to take all the good info from those articles in reference and compile it in one brief 10 step process. Here goes...
Rule #1) Upset-schmupset
There are far fewer upsets than the average college basketball fan, or rather the average filler-outer-of-bracket, thinks. We call it March Madness because it is "madness" how any team can win it all. For all the boo-hooing about college football, you could really argue that smaller schools have a better chance of winning there. Are there more big teams with a shot of winning in basketball? Sure, but TCU and Bosie State are NEVER winning this basketball tournament, and they both had legitimate chances (if things went their way) this season to get into that game. Granted, it is a tournament format, so technically every team gets "a chance", but who are we kidding? Lehigh is not winning their first game, let alone this tournament! I digress.
The 2009 tournament saw only 5 "upsets", second fewest ever to the 3 from 2007. (This would be upset meaning a gap of at least four seeds. 7-10, 8-9 games don't count.) Recent tournaments suggest a trend that upsets are becoming fewer and fewer. This year projects to be a slight uptick, due to the lack of standout teams. But, we thought that last year as well and only saw 5. 2008 was the year all four #1 seeds made the Final Four!
What does this all mean to you? Well, you have to really spot your upsets well and don't pick too many. Read further for more details on how to pick your upsets.
Rule #2) 12 seeds are golden!
Since 1999 12 seeds have beaten at least one 5 seed in every year but two. Last year, 3 of them were victorious and yours truly had all three pegged! One 12 seed is usually a decent bet to make the sweet 16 as well, like Arizona did last year.
The key to picking these games is not so much finding the right 12 seeds as it is finding the upset victims. When you get your bracket and sit down to watch all that analysis. Pay close attention to the 5 seeds. Are they pissed about not being ranked higher? Did they ride some kind of late season run to the 5 seed? Look for ACC and Big 10 teams, and the occasional Big East squad to do the choking. Those teams who think they should have been seeded higher are not ready to play and ripe for the pickin'. (My round 1 upset picks will be listed at the bottom of this column.)
Rule #3) Wish upon a star!
This tournament is all set up for a star to lead his team deep into the tourney. Seemingly every year we have a few teams who are led to at least a couple wins by their star players. Carmelo Anthony, Michael Beasley, Scottie Reynolds, Levance Fields, Danny Manning just to name a few, have put their squads on their backs and taken them for magical rides. In fact, this tourney is so star driven that every team except two since 1979 has had at least one McDonald's All-American on their squad. Of 1-3 seeds this year, only West Virginia and Baylor do not sport a Mickey D's on their roster. Look for those teams to be bounced. Plus, Huggins is a choke-artist.
Notable star-quality players to watch (and possibly carry their teams):
Kentucky - John Wall (duh) and DeMarcus Cousins. (Patterson is also a former McD's All-Am.)
Kansas - Sherron Collins
Villanova - Scottie Reynolds
Duke - Kyle Singler (gay) John Scheyer (gayer)
Oklahoma State - James Anderson
Tennessee - Scottie Hopson
Georgetown - Vernon Macklin and Greg Monroe (not a McD's alum, but a stud no doubt.)
Michigan State - Kalin Lucas
Ohio State - Evan Turner (super-stud)
Rule #4) Don't forget about coach
To me, it is just as important who is coaching the team as who is on the floor during March Madness. Many coaches have a track record, and if you're going to let your money ride on an unproven coach in March you may want to think twice. Here are some of the choke artists:
Bob Huggins (West Virginia) - Yes, he's made the Final Four once, almost 20 years ago. His resume is FILLED with first and second round exits...12 to be exact.
Rick Barnes (Texas) - In seven of his ten years at Texas, the Longhorns went on to lose to a lower seed in the NCAA Tournament. Choked up a win over Duke last year.
Mike Krewsherweski (Duke) - I don't know how to spell his name, and I don't care. He did most of his winning in the 90s and it is 2010. His recent tournaments have not been excellent, marred by many early exits. Granted, this years team seems legit, though the ACC was pretty weak. Time will tell.
Bruce Pearl (Tennessee) - Not really a choker, per se, but never made it past Sweet 16. Don't expect this to be the year.
Here are some of the really good ones:
Billy Donovan (Florida) - .759 tournament win percentage (best active)
Jay Wright (Villanova) - 4 sweet 16s, 2 elite 8s and one final four. not bad.
Bill Self (Kansas) - Used to be a guy on the other list, but recent tournaments have lost that rep.
Rick Pitino (Louisville) - Three different schools in the Final Four. Proceed with caution though, this L'Ville team is not that stellar. I smell an early exit.
Jim Boeheim (Syracuse) - 25 tourney appearance and 13 Sweet 16s. Consistent.
Tom Izzo (Michigan State) - This guy always gets his team deep. Any four year player under this guy has reached a Final Four. Wow.
Rule #5) On guard!
This is a guard's tournament. Sure, some big men have taken their team deep, but I'll give you 30 seconds to name me a big man who has led his team all the way without having a great guard on his team...didn't think so.
Scottie Reynolds led his team to the Final Four last year with his stellar play, and Hansbrough might have been the big name, but that was Lawson's team. Bottom line, without a great ball-handler who can put up big assist-to-turnover numbers your team is not getting anywhere. Good teams without stellar guard play this year:
West Virginia
Georgetown
Ohio State (swing-man, Evan Turner could be good enough to overcome this. We'll see.)
Purdue
Look for these teams to make a relatively early exit, since they have no great guards to rely on. When the going gets tough you need that steady PG to keep the train rollin'.
Rule #6) A bracket is not won in a day
Sounds simple, but it is SO true. Last year, I missed only one first round game, but came up way short in the next two rounds which obviously killed my bracket. The first round has the most potential upset games, but is round two and the sweet sixteen where the big money gets made. Since 1985 there have been 600 second rd 2 and sweet 16 games played, and 402 have been potential upsets. Of those 402 there have been 94 upset wins. That's 23%! Not bad. However, it's not as bad as it might look for high seeds. Top 3 seeds are 231-19 against 1st rd dark horses. In other words wait til the later rounds to pick you upsets of top teams. The last 1-3 seed to lose in the first rd was Iowa State in 2006. Don't count on a 1-3 seed losing in round 1. But there may be a few to go down in rd two and the sweet 16. A 2-7 matchup in round 2 is a good place to look for an upset.
Rule #7) Don't bet against #1
This is kind of a continuation of the last rule, but #1 seeds are not good picks to lose until later in the tournament. Obviously, they've never lost to a #16 in round 1 and that will continue this year. And in rd 2 they are 29-9 and 43-3 against 8 and 9 seeds respectively. In the Sweet 16 they are 21-9 vs 4 seeds and 22-5 vs 5 seeds, and 13-0 vs 12 seeds. Basically, #1 seeds dominate the first three rounds. If you pick against them early you could be burned out of a lot of potential bracket points, so don't do it. Unless it is Duke. They will probably be the first 1 to lose to a 16. (J/K)
Rule #8) Cover your ears!
Don't listen to all the pundits and so-called experts out there who will tell you how to fill out your bracket. Most of those clowns don't watch nearly as much basketball as they'd like you to believe and their brackets are usually toast after two or three rounds because they ignore rules like the ones I have proposed here. Do your own research. Don't let Digger and his fancy hi-liter color coordination make you pick New Mexico instead of Marquette if that's what you'd like. Those guys at ESPN are to busy sexually harassing women to know what is going on. If you follow any of them, make sure it is the super nerdy ones like Andy Katz and guys who never played or coached. They do the most research and are pretty unbiased. (You know Digger's picking Notre Dame to go deep!)
Rule #9) Vegas knows
The people setting the lines in Vegas aren't making money hand over fist for no reason. They know what they're talking about. If you get to a game where you're just not sure what to do (8-9 games, 7-10 games) go with the Vegas favorite. They're usually right and do more research than anyone. For the record, it is not always the higher seed as some might think. I believe last year even had Arizona as the favorite in the 12-5 game in which they were victorious. And I can remember several 7-10 games in recent memory where the 10 was favored. So check those lines!
Rule #10) When all else fails...go with the chick method
Cool cities, favorite schools and mascots, etc. This is how girls (even my mom) fill out brackets, and you know what? They usually do pretty well. The Sports Guy made this method famous by posting his wife's weekly football picks a couple years ago, and she did better than he did! My mom's bracket is usually pretty good, until she gets to the end and she has Boston College in the Final Four (because "she likes Al Skinner"). Anyway, this method involves picking games like Clemson/Missouri in this way: "Well, they're both Tigers, so that won't work. Clemson is in South Carolina, which is nice this time of year, so those boys are probably in good moods. Missouri can be kind of cold, and I bet it is pretty boring. They might be drinking a lot. They'll be sluggish. I'll go with Clemson." Eesh! What a way to fill it out. But you'll be pissed when your girlfriend nails that 1st round upset you never saw coming because "a Gator would beat a Cougar any day!"
That's all folks. Happy Bracket picking. This is the greatest and least productive work-week in America. Offices all over the country will be on virtual vacation. Enjoy it, and may your brackets look good til the end, so you don't give up.
My 1st rd upset picks, after first glance at the bracket:
1 Duke vs 16 play-in winner. Just kidding. But, fuck the Dukies.
For real:
Old Dominion over Notre Dame
UTEP over Butler
My first look, really looks like the first round won't see many upsets. The 2nd could have more though. I'll have updates later this week.
I will be updating this after further research before Thursday's games.
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