I was gonna do a final power rankings heading into the final week of the season, last week. However, I didn't really feel like writing about all the teams that were no longer compelling and decided to hold off and rank the playoff teams. Obviously, this isn't just ranking them by seed or that would be exceedingly boring. Here's how I think the teams stack up based on their play headed into the most exciting stretch of the season. Let's start with the Eastern Conference.
EAST
#1 Chicago Bulls -
To put another team here would be kind of silly. Since Thanksgiving this has been the best team in the NBA at 54-15. They're also the hottest team in the league at 9-1 over their last 10, including an utter dismantling of a beat up Boston squad. Derrick Rose is essentially the unquestioned MVP among the media types, and has certainly been displaying some dazzling play.
Chicago ranks first in the NBA in defensive efficiency - which may surprise some who view them as a great offensive team. However, Coach Thibs has brought his signature defense to Chicago and they do a terrific job locking down teams and creating off of turnovers - much like the Celtics did under his tutelage. They are also the top offensive rebounding club in the East, which could be huge in tight, physical games as the playoffs wear on.
That defensive mindset they've adopted should help them in the playoffs, although this group of Bulls, with Boozer in the mix, doesn't have any playoff experience on their side. Nonetheless, their body of work has to make them the favorites to come out of the East.
Bulls win if... Rose continues his MVP play and they continue to create extra possessions with offensive boards.
Bulls lose if... Rose goes cold or gets too keen on scoring the ball and forgets to distribute.
#2 Boston Celtics -
Yes. I know they're bumbling their way into the playoffs. But take a second to think back to how they played last year heading into the playoffs. Hard to believe, but it was actually worse. They were getting stomped by bad teams, and still made an epic run to the finals only to lose in 7 games to the Lakers. Fool me once, shame on you. I was all over the C's last season saying that they didn't have a chance. Fool me twice shame on me. I'm not betting against this team of vets - although I'm also not counting on Shaqachusetts to give us anything more than a few decent games. Paul Pierce demonstrated in the most recent game at Madison Square Garden that he has as much want-to as anyone in the league. And he can still get it going when the bright lights are on.
I think resting the guys and settling for #3 was the best move possible. They get a reeling Knicks team in round 1, got some rest and most importantly got some time to practice hard heading into the playoffs. I know the haters will say they don't have Perk, but the defensive numbers have been better since the trade. The offense has been the problem. I'm not scared of Joel Anthony or Rony Turiaf. The Perk hole shouldn't be noticed until they face the Bulls if that happens. Rondo can not have bad games in the playoffs if this team is going to win. Their run will depend on his play and if Paul is able to find that big game mojo.
Celtics win if...Big 3 stay healthy, Shaq plays solid minutes and Rondo distributes.
Celtics lose if...Rondo plays poorly, any injury to a key player or new guys can't find a way to gel with the vets.
#3 Miami Heat -
Combining offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency, this is the best team in the NBA. They average 109.3 points per 100 possessions (3rd in NBA) and give up a stout 100.7 (5th). They are the only team in the top 5 in both categories. That combination is going to make this team a very tough out - despite what any haters might have to say. They are also 2nd in the NBA in true shooting percentage.
So what could possibly hold this team back? Well, for starters they have never been through the playoffs together. This will be the Heatles first real test under pressure. If Lebron reverts to his early season ways and defers too often to his teammates they may be in trouble. They are at their best when he is attacking. At 8-2 in their last 10 they've been at their best often of late.
However, teams like Boston, Orlando and Chicago can still give them fits if they can get plenty of low-post scoring.
The other problem could be free throws. Miami ranks 6th among East playoff teams in FT % and is the only East playoff team other than Milwaukee and Orlando to give up more Free Throw Attempts than they take. We all know about Lebron's FT struggles. Under the pressure of the big moment, that could be compounded.
Heat win if... Wade and James play aggressive and Bosh knocks down some shots.
Heat lose if... James and Wade can't find a balance in play-off atmosphere, or Bosh folds under pressure and physical play.
#4 Orlando Magic -
To be honest, I really think there is a big drop-off in the East after the top 3 teams. If one of the other 5 teams makes an appearance in the EC Finals I will be pretty shocked. From the beginning of the year, many media members have been hyping this team as a finals threat. I recall Barkley saying on TNT that Orlando was assuredly going to the Finals, and basically wrote everyone else off. Funny how no one brings that up now. I'm sorry, I'm just not buying this team anymore. I will buy on Dwight Howard all day every day but this isn't really a big man's league. You need one or two good ones to win, but a great one on his own can't get the job done.
Orlando is far too reliant on the 3-pointer, but not nearly good enough at shooting it. They're 9th in the league in true shooting, though they are far too streaky and every good defensive team will let Dwight have his and close out on the perimeter players.
Magic win if... Nelson, Redick and co. knock down 3's with consistency.
Magic lose if... Howard is the focal point of their offense.
#5 New York Knicks
I'm not really buying this team as much as I just can't stand the rest of the teams that rank below them in the East. If 1-3 has a drop-off it might be even more severe from the 4 spot to the 5-8 teams. The Knicks play no defense. That isn't something that you can just start doing in big moments. I love how this team made one good defensive stand all season against Miami and everyone wanted to talk about how they could play defense if they wanted to. In the words of Chad Ochocinco - "Child, please." If we haven't learned by now that a D'Antoni team isn't going to play defense then we really need to pull our heads out of our asses.
That being said, his teams in Phoenix made regular deep runs in the West by merely outscoring weaker opponents. The problem here is the Celtics are not a weaker opponent in the first round. Amare and Melo is a nice 1-2 on paper, and they can certainly light it up on the big stage in MSG. However, I haven't seen them put together a stretch where both are playing at an elite level the way Lebron and DWade can. Two forwards just doesn't really do it for me. They need a basketball team. The D'Antoni system thrives on motion and ball movement. Problem is Amare and Melo (especially) are both ball stoppers.
Knicks win if... Melo and Stat both go crazy and have a huge series, and they get a boost from MSG playoff atmosphere.
Knicks lose if... Melo becomes a volume shooter.
#6 Atlanta Hawks
We've been watching this core unit of Josh Smith, Joe Johnson and Al Horford for a few years. Looks like a great team, right? Problem is they haven't been able to get over that hump of making the playoffs and turning it into a deep run. A few years ago they took the Celtics to 7 games and everyone thought they might finally emerge. 3 years later we're still waiting for the same thing.
I just can't buy this team as a contender anymore.
Zaza Pachulia should serve as a nice breakfast for Dwight Howard as he eats him up in the paint in round one.
The Hawks are 28th in the league in rebounding and 22nd in the league in rebounding differential. That does not bode well for their playoff hopes. On top of that they are 15th in defensive efficiency and give up more points per 100 possessions than they score. Indiana is the only other playoff team to do that.
Hawks win if... Josh Smith averages close to a triple-double and Joe Johnson plays like the go-to scorer that he is paid to be.
Hawks lose if... They don't find a way to keep opponents off the glass.
#7 Philadelphia 76ers
This is a feisty team that Coach Collins has playing hard every night. Andre Igoudala is their Mr. Everything, and he's going to have to be healthy and productive in order for them to have any kind of shot in round one. Some have compared him to Scottie Pippen for the way he contributes in multiple categories. The numbers might look nice, but he's not on Scottie's planet. Jrue Holiday and Lou Williams provide a nice 1-2 punch from the PG spot which could be their best bet in attacking Miami, since Bibby can't guard anyone.
Philly likes to play uptempo and they'll need to create turnovers that produce points if they're going to win. Among East playoff teams they were 3rd in steals differential, so they have that going for them.
Sixers win if... Igoudala plays like a superstar and the Sixers are able to score in transition.
Sixers lose if... Pace of play slows down.
#8 Indiana Pacers
Why is this team in the playoffs? I wish the NBA took the top 16 teams. That would be a little more exciting. Nonetheless, this Pacers squad does have a little star power in Danny Granger who is probably the best player known by the fewest amount of people. Josh McRoberts is playing better than probably anyone expected and Roy Hibbert has found his groove a bit this season.
However, this team has no shot of advancing past round one, and in fact I would say that they have very little shot at winning a game.
This is a very middle of the road team, and not a lot worth tuning in for except to see Danny Granger - though he'll likely be the focus of the opponents defense so who knows how much he'll really do.
Pacers win if... Derrick Rose gets hurt in game 1 and can't return.
Pacers lose if... Let's be honest, this is most likely.
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