Sox in 5

I’d like to start this Red Sox-Angels preview by looking back to almost a year ago. After the Sox were shut down by Matt Garza in game 7 of the ALCS, which shocked us all considering Garza’s historical temper/emotional issues. A lack of offense was evident as Garza was in control after Dustin Pedroia’s first-inning home run. The same issues (Jason’s Varitek and David Ortiz’s hitting woes) that were plaguing the Sox at that moment were just as troublesome in late July as the offense was as bad as it has looked since 2002.

Fast forward to now: You know all about the acquisition of Victor Martinez but his presence really has changed the culture of the Sox lineup. David Ortiz may be a mistake hitter at this point but that’s still a vast improvement over artist formerly known as David Ortiz that would look tentative and unsure of himself at the plate last year.

Mike Lowell can now walk in a straight line, unlike last year, and this offense has rounded into form to this point. How they’ll do against good pitching remains to be seen.
From the Angels perspective, they haven’t lost a beat since Mark Teixeira’s departure. The emergence of Kendry Morales gave this team a huge boost and he’s the go-to power hitter in the lineup now. Add Bobby Abreu in there and this is a different offense from last year as well.

KEY FACTORS:
Can Lacky/Weaver compete with Lester/Beckett? Clay Buchholz vs. Kazmir seems to be a wash so the first two games of this series are especially important.
Edge: Red Sox. Lackey hasn’t done a thing in the postseason since 2002. He pitched well against the Yankees in 2005 but in total he has lost 3 games without a win and can’t beat the Red Sox. A lot of it with him is mental. Example: Throwing Jason Bay an inside fastball after throwing breaking ball after breaking ball by him and Bay hitting it to the Moon in game 1 last year.

Offense: Will the Sox offense continue to look good or will it return to dormancy? The Angels offense has been balanced and well-rounded all year.
Edge: Angels. Until that question is answered, we have to give the benefit of the doubt Angels.

From the eighth inning on: Last year’s series provided a few tight games so we shouldn’t expect anything different in 2009. That’s why having Jonathan Papelbon and his playoff resume in addition to Billy Wagner at the end of games is so crucial to the Sox in this series. Sorry, Angels fans. Brian Fuentes (3.93 ERA) and Jason Bulger (3.68) will not be trustworthy in key situations.

Edge: Red Sox. I don’t need to tell you about Papelbon’s postseason stats. They speak for themselves. Billy Wagner will be the difference.

OUTCOME:
Red Sox in 5: Why? Simply put, the Red Sox have the better pitching, as they have the past few years. Me picking them has nothing to do with what happened in 2008, 2007 or 2004. The Red Sox weren’t great in the regular season by any means but this team is built for a long playoff run with Beckett and Lester.