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Thursday, January 22, 2009

Celtics Vs Magic Preview


Ok well the Celts come into this game riding a 6-game winning streak, where they will be met by an Orlando squad who has pulled off 7 straight wins, arguably against better competition. The Magic took down the Spurs, Lakers (something the Celts couldn't do), and the Nuggets -- all on the road. Quite impressive if you ask me. However, the NBA (and basketball in general) is a game of matchups. Perfect example of this can be found during the NCAA Tournament. An elite conference school with a dominating big man can be nullified by a scrappy mid-major school with excellent shooting guards, and vice versa. But now I'm straying to far from my point.
Basically, I look at Orlando's starting 5, and I see a dominating big man (arguably the best in the league) surrounded by 4 sharp-shooters. For instance, Rashard Lewis, deadly from beyond the arc, is 6'10'' and starts at the traditional Power Forward position, yet plays as if he were 6'6''. Their offense is simply spread the defense out, and feed the ball to Dwight Howard. Defense collapses on him, he kicks it out for a trey. Defense doesn't collapse, he muscles his way to the hoop and/or the foul line (where he is atrocious -- 58% for the year). How do you stop this?
Well, in my mind, there are two ways. The first is that a team that lives by the three, dies by the three. Every shooter has their off-nights (just ask Ray Ray); Orlando is just fortunate that they have so many quality shooters that it's rare for all of them to be cold on the same given night. A catalyst for this, however, is great defense. The Celtics pride themselves on playing great defense, and it is truly fun to watch them on both ends of the court, something I'm not sure a Lakers fan can echo. That being said, they play a very authoritative defense, in that on most nights they can dictate what they want the opposing offense to do. With so many deadly shooters, look for the Celtics to play (forgive the cliche) "in-your-face" defense and force them to put the ball on the floor. This not only takes them out of their ideal game, it draws them into the heart of the scrappy Celtic defense, where assists go to die.
The second means of stopping this explosive style offense is cutting out the core, a la Superman. Now in this case I think the Celtics might be at more than small disadvantage. With Perkins just recently coming off an injury, and having his minutes limited, they are going to be extremely creative in how they attack Howard. If Perk was 100% I don't think he would have a problem containing Howard, but he is not so I digress. Look for alot of Big Baby and Powe combinations, with Garnett leaving his man to help. The Celtics do a great job of rotating and replacing their defense and that will be key to contesting the 3-point onslaught that is bound to occur.
On the offensive end, I look for the Celtics to keep firing on all cylinders. Jameer Nelson is a scorer - not a defender. Rondo should have no problem getting into the lane and creating havoc. If Ray and Paul continue to rain from deep, and if KG can take advantage of having Lewis guard him in the post, I think we can pull this one out. Look for Perk to just take up space and keep Dwight occupied. Also of note, Rondo has been starting to hit his jumper when left unchecked, which is great sign not just for his confidence, but for the fact that his shooting form is miles ahead of where it was even at the beginning of the season. A couple early made shots for him and he should be rolling.
The X-factor for this game will be Hedo Turkoglu. How he plays defensively on PP and how he does offensively will tell alot about the game itself. I really like Turk's game and he is a gritty player, but he can be broken with solid defense and pushing him to work hard defensively. I would probably give Orlando the nod in the bench matchup, but it is hard to guage because the Celtics bench can be so Jeckyl/Hyde. If Eddie brings his stroke from South Beach to Disney World, look out. Big Baby will bring his energy, and Scals and Powe will bring their scrappiness, that much is a given. (Say what you will about Scals, the guy does the most with the least amount of talent. He plays very hard defensively, and runs the offense well. Whether or not his 3-pt percentage is desireable, he can still knock it down and thus forces a big man to play him out there.)

All in all, I foresee a close game throughout, with the Celtics tainting the score in the end via free throws. 101-92 Celtics.
Tommy Award goes to Rondo.

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