From 2001 up until this year, specifically previous the much-talked about and the much-debated Patriots-Colts game a few weeks ago, I always went into pregame predictions with the mindset of "Why would the Pats lose this game?"
It has taken a few years and a 4th-quarter disintegration against Indy to lead me to this point: I don't have the same type of confidence I used to have that my beloved Patriots will win tonight's game.
From 2001 to 2004, this kind of game was one that we as Pats fans could be assured they wouldn't lose. Now? I'm not sure what's going to happen. What happened against the Colts (notice I'm referring to that game as if it was the day a member of my family died) really has taken a hit to my confidence in this team's ability to win big games on the road.
I certainly want the Patriots to win what will be a back-and-forth game (not necessarily a shootout) but there are a few things that prevent me from thinking they will:
1. The inability of the defense to get off the field on third down and allow the opposing team to go on long drives. I'm aware of their defensive stats but we all know this is one of the real issues for this unit. This is a killer when you have Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Wes Welker sitting on the bench.
2. We all know it: Red Zone efficiency. We know the Patriots can and will rack up yardage against this Saints defense but it won't matter one bit if we see Stephen Gostkowski and the field goal unit running onto the field. And not just for 2 1/2 quarters like the (ugh..) Colts game. They need to be finishing off drives and score in the red zone when they get there.
3. This is related to #2 but people keep talking about the Saints secondary being weak and injured. Wasn't the Colts' entire defensive backfield out a few weeks ago? They didn't take advantage of that for 4 quarters and we have no reason to believe they will now.
4. This point resonated more than anything else with me: This team simply hasn't earned the right to be favored. Sure, if they win tonight they'll be right back up there with the Saints and Indy as an elite team. Right now, they are definitely one of the best teams in the league and most likely among the top five or six. However, they haven't proved to us they can win a game like this and make a huge statement.
This is a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately kind of league and the Pats haven't come out on top in games like this (I won't delve into the gory details of 2005-present) recently. I'm picking the Saints 28-24 in this game because of the previously mentioned points. I'm hoping I'm wrong (those of you who have read my stuff before know I usually am) and the Pats win this game going away but let's see them go out and win against the undefeated Saints on the road before we can pick them in big games.
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