September Run?

As the 2009 season heads toward September I still don’t feel as though the Red Sox have gained a real identity. Actually, more to the point, their perceived strengths have changed from month to month and we don’t really know what this team is capable of down the stretch. Is this a team that can strike fear into the Yankees if they meet up? Will they even make the playoffs? Let’s take a look at the three areas that have fluctuated at different points for the Sox.

Early on, the Sox’ superior rotation depth was supposed to leave them with a conundrum in June when future Hall-of-Famer John Smoltz would be waiting in the wings and Clay Buchholz ready if everything went south. Now as of August 27, everything went wrong and (great start from Tim Wakefield aside) he could be considered the third starter. I wish I had an answer to why Brad Penny and John Smoltz failed so badly in Boston or why Dice-K’s high-wire act from 2008 finally dissolved. The last time I was this wrong about a rotation was when I thought Jeff Suppan was the answer in 2003. We’ll have a better idea of whether this team will be making a deep run in October when we see how Dice-K looks upon his return and if Wakefield can stay healthy.

Next was the Jason Bay-led offense (despite the absence of David Ortiz). Bay had 15 home runs and 49 RBI by the end of May and that dreadlocked guy who used to reside in left field was no longer a fixture in WEEI conversation. A .230 June and .192 July from Bay shed light on the fact that not only is this offense not deep enough to succeed with its RBI man in a bad slump, but makes you wonder how it was able to produce runs early on in the season. Maybe Bay getting hot in the playoffs and pushing the Rays to a game 7 combined with the good start gave us the illusion this offense was just fine without Manny or Mark Teixeira.

While having Victor Martinez in the picture makes this lineup much more dangerous and I believe Kevin Youkilis to be the team’s MVP because of his versatility and consistent month-to-month numbers (at least 4 HR and 13 RBI in every month so far), it’s clear Jason Bay holds the key to this offense. The stats support the obvious result of him driving in runs as the Sox are 10-3 since July 26 when Bay drives in a run but when he’s hot it gives Youkilis, Martinez and Mike Lowell better pitches to hit.

The solid, consistent numbers from this bullpen would lead you to believe this could be its identity. I’ll ask you this, though: are you confident in these young guys in the playoffs? Daniel Bard’s eighth inning implosion on Sunday Night Baseball on August 9 in Yankee Stadium scared the hell out of me . I had visions of the Yankee magic of old when he gave up those bombs to Damon and Teixeira. He’s a young guy with some of the best stuff on the staff and I want to have confidence in him in that situation because it very well could present itself again in October. Bard’s bad outing aside, Ramon Ramirez has never pitched in the playoffs (even though he was on that ’07 Rockies team) and Manny Delcarmen hasn’t proven himself in the playoffs either.

Jonathan Papelbon hasn’t been exactly bullet-proof in 2009. He already has more walks this year than ’07 and ’08 combined. Needless to say, his command is a concern but he gets it done come October. Along with Papelbon, Hideki Okajima has been a rock for this team both in the playoffs and regular season. His value can’t be dismissed. I hope Billy Wagner is anything close to the guy with a 2.39 ERA but he’s spent his whole career in the NL and he isn’t exactly Sean Casey in the clubhouse.

The fact that this team hasn’t found a niche isn’t necessarily a bad thing. A rotation of Beckett, Lester, Wakefield, Buchholz and Tazawa/Dice-K/Bowden could be very good and Wagner could make an already deep bullpen the best in the majors. I think this offense has finally found itself and will be clicking in September. Terry Francona will earn his money in September as he juggles the offensive impact a Lowell/Martinez lineup has vs. the game calling and defense Jason Varitek brings. Good luck, Tito.

A few side notes:

-Look for a huge September from Dustin Pedroia. He’s been driving the ball again recently and I’d be shocked if he didn’t start showing more power soon.

-So long, Brad Penny. I won’t miss watching your John Wasdin-eqsue fastballs and overall d-bag mannerisms on the mound.

-How dumb is Tony Pena for locating his slider to Ortiz in the same exact spot he struck Youkilis out on? If I were a White Sox fan I’d take my nearest Ron Karkovice card and rip it to shreds.

-Shut up, Milton Bradley. No one likes you and you aren’t a good enough player for anything that you say or do to be considered real news.

-A .291 batting average with 2 homers and 9 RBI in August for Manny Ramirez in August. Feel free to make your own joke about Manny’s empty stats during a time in which his team has let the Rockies crawl to within 3 games of the division lead. Good stuff.

-Joe Mauer is a .373-hitting catcher with 25 home runs and more walks than strikeouts (52-49). I don’t care if the Twins are in the playoff hunt or not, he’s the AL MVP.

-Aaron Hill has 30 home runs. With a huge September he could be the fourth second baseman ever to hit 40 bombs. The others? Ryne Sandberg, Rogers Hornsby and Davey Johnson. Jay Bell came close with 38 in 1999 but no one has done it since Sandberg hit 40 in 1990.

-Chris Carpenter’s comeback has been impressive. If anything, he’s better than before.