2010 Record: 75-87
Lineup:
1. RF Kosuke Fukudome
2. SS Starlin Castro
3. CF Marlon Byrd
4. 3B Aramis Ramirez
5. 1B Carlos Pena
6. LF Alfonso Soriano
7. 2B Blake DeWitt
8. C Geovany Soto
There are 3 guys that will make or break this lineup; Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Pena, and Alfonso Soriano. Pena is basically an all or nothing guy. He hit 28 HRs last year, but also only batted .198, if he can bring that average up to .220-.230 area it would be a big help. Soriano averaged 108 runs, 37 homers and 97 RBIs in his 5 seasons before signing an outrageous 8 year, $136 million deal with the Cubs prior to the 2007 season. Since then, he has failed to score 100 runs or drive in 80 runs in a single season and has managed just one 30 HR season (talk about tanking it). Aramis Ramirez is a hell of a player, but can't seem to stay on the field, over the past two season he has only played 206 games. If your lineup is banking on these three guys you are in trouble. I think Ramirez is poised to have a hell of a year, but Pena blows, and Soriano is decent at best, and both strikeout WAY TOO MUCH.
Rotation:
1. RHP Ryan Dempster. 15 Ws, 215 1/3 IP, 208 K's led rotation in 2010
2. RHP Carlos Zambrano. 8-0, 1.41 ERA after rejoining rotation Aug. 9
3. RHP Matt Garza. Career-best 15 Ws, 204 2/3 IP with TB last season
4. RHP Randy Wells. Allowed at least 5 ER in 9 of 32 starts in '10
5. RHP Carlos Silva. 1.76 WHIP with SEA in '09; 1.27 with CHC in '10
CL: RHP Carlos Marmol. 138 K's (77 2/3 innings) led all MLB relievers in '10
Just quickly looking at that rotation something should stick out to you right away... No lefties. Kind of odd, but this is an improved rotation. The big question mark is Carlos Zambrano he is a complete mental case, but did go 8-0 with a 1.41 ERA after rejoining the rotation in Aug. If he can get to be a top of the rotation kind of guy that would be HUGE for this team. Garza is a hell of a pickup, maybe I overrated him because he seemed to destroy the Red Sox every year, but the guy was pretty damn good in the AL East, and that makes me think he will be an absolute stud in the NL. Dempster is good, and Wells is a good #4, but I think Carlos Silva is one of the worst pitchers in the MLB. Their closer Marmol has all the talent in the world (138 K's in 77 2/3 innings), but also walks a ton of guys. If he can take the "next step" he could be one of the best in the game.
Overall:
The struggles of the Cubs has been well documented, but I do have to say I like their rotation and their bullpen. I am not at all sold on their lineup, but their pitching staff is going to make them a much improved team, and I bet Garza has an ERA around 2.60 and between 16-18 wins.
2011 Record: 85-77
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