Let's start out west.
*WESTERN CONFERENCE*
#1 Los Angeles - #8 Oklahoma City
Don't know about y'all, but I can't wait to watch these games. The Durantula against KoMe. Should be one for to remember, especially if Durant can make a big statement. We might look back on this point as the start of a wondrous career. LeBron had his moment against Detroit the year CLE went to the finals. I'm excited to see what Durant and co. will do against a struggling Lakers team.
Breakdown:
Key Stat -
In 3 games against OKC this season, C Andrew Bynum shot 63% from the floor and averaged nearly 20 points.
Los Angeles could really use that kind of production from the young, lanky center. When healthy and motivated he is very good. But as of now, both those factors are questionable.
Key Matchup -
Derek Fisher against Russell Westbrook.
This is going to be OKC's best opportunity to break down the Lakers. I give Fisher about zero chance to contain the young energetic PG. Westbrook has moved up along the upper echelon of Western Conference PG this season, and Fisher has looked a little aged this year. If Westbrook can get into the paint and draw those lanky defenders in Gasol, Odom and Bynum(?) to him there will be open jumpers for Durant, Green, Harden, Sefolosha and co.
Prediction-
Lakers in 6.
A lot of people are looking at the Lakers' final stretch of the season and predicting an early upset. Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Yes, OKC is very good. They won 50 games! But we're still talking about Kobe. Yes, he's battling a lingering finger problem, but he's also the only guy in the league (in my opinion) with a killer instinct even comparable to what Jordan showed. He's still the best in my book, and with a game on the line I would want no one else taking the shot. I think OKC is good enough to give them a scare and may even jump out to series lead. But Kobe and Gasol will be ready, even if the others are not, and that should get them into the next round.
#2 Dallas - #7 San Antonio
The battle between two Texas teams. These two teams are not friendly and you know Mark Cuban would love for his team to take out the perennial contenders in San Antonio, who seem to be in their last couple productive years with the current team.
Dallas took the regular season series 3-1, but the games were very evenly contested and no team really held the edge statistically speaking.
Breakdown:
Key Stat -
Tim Duncan's career playoff avgs = 23.2 ppg and 12.4 rpg.
2008-09 playoff avgs = 19.8 ppg and 8 rpg.
He will have to find his old form if the Spurs have any hope of making it out of the first round.
Key Matchup -
Shawn Marion against Manu Ginobli
In my eyes it will be Ginobli's doing if the Spurs make it to round 2. Parker has been fighting injuries all season and looks a little heavy. Timmy D is old and not as productive as he used to be, though that bankshot jumper is still money. Ginobli has the ability to get anywhere on the court and has an annoying tendency to draw ridiculous fouls. Marion will need to contain him on the wing in order to shut him down.
Prediction -
Mavericks in 6.
Dallas has been playing well of late since they made the deal for Butler and Haywood. Haywood gives them a nice presence in the paint, and hopefully he'll lay down some hayWOOD when Spurs come driving into the lane.
#3 Phoenix - #6 Portland
The Phoenix Suns are one of the hottest teams in the league (no pun intended) and Amare Stoudemire has been nearly unstoppable since the All-Star break and the passing of the trade deadline. The Suns will look to ride his athletic play out of round 1 as the Blazers have absolutely no one with any chance of shutting him down.
Brandon Roy is out following knee surgery, so Portland's chances do not look good.
Breakdown:
Key Matchup -
Steve Nash against Andre Miller
They key here will be who can dictate play better for their offense. I don't think Miller can stick with Nash anymore. So Nash should be able to get to his spots and distribute the way we all expect him to. However, Miller can be sneaky good on offense and put up some points in a hurry. We all know how bad Nash is on D, so he'll need some help containing Miller.
Key Stat -
Brandon Roy averaged 25 points against Phoenix this season. Portland will need to find a way to replace that offense. Look for Aldridge to try and step up his game.
Prediction -
Suns in 5.
Withotr Roy, Portland just does not have the horses to run with Planet Orange. They'll probably steal one game at home, but the Suns should have no problem pushing tempo, and feature one of the deepest benches in the league.
#4 Denver - #5 Utah
The Nuggets beat Utah 3 out of 4 times this season. Although, without George Karl on the bench the Nuggets seem to be a different squad. If you thought they seemed a bit disorganized and erratic at times with Karl on the sideline, you should see them when he's not there. I witnessed their dismantling by the Suns first hand the other day.
Breakdown:
Key Matchup -
Chauncey Billups against Deron Williams.
Not much to it here. Whoever can establish the game plan for their team will probably be the victor. I can't wait to watch these two go at it. Deron Williams is probably my 2nd favorite point guard in the league (Rondo) and is a thrill to watch when he has it going. Both guards play a pretty physical style and neither is going to back down from the other.
Key Stat -
Stole this one from CBSsports.com but whatever...it is a good one.
In 48 Denver wins, J.R. Smith shot 37% from beyond the arc. In the losses he shot 26%! Smith is dynamite instant offense, but he can also be as cold as he can hot, and put up some bad shots. Karl won't be there to get in his ear about it, so it will be interesting to see which Smith shows up and stays around.
Prediction -
Denver in 7.
Kirilenko is out for now and Boozer is questionable. AK47 doesn't do much for me, but they may miss Boozer's presence. Although, Millsap is a formidable replacement. I think this one goes 7 with Denver edging out Utah behind some brilliant play out of Chauncey.
*EASTERN CONFERENCE*
#1 Cleveland - #8 Chicago
King James. King James and more King James.
Some writers on this site despise Lebron. But, I'm a big fan (when he's not playing Boston). I won't waste a lot of time here other than to say, I don't think Chicago has a prayer in this series.
Breakdown:
Key Matchup -
Whoever is trying to guard Lebron. If they want to have a shot just bait him into open jumpers and hope he misses a lot of them. He's not a terrific perimeter shooter, but he thinks he is, so that might work. Hopefully, LBJ just gets into the paint and finishes or distributes. That is when Cleveland is at their best. Look for Lebron to put on the show of a lifetime in these playoffs. He's playing for a huge contract and nearly every crappy team in the league has cleared space and prepared to offer huge money. He knows everyone is watching, and that should only mean one thing. Greatness. Witness, mother fuckers.
Key Stat -
Heading down the end of the season Cleveland was 16-3 without Shaq's fat ass. I think they are better without him, but no one has asked me my opinion yet (unfortunately). Hopefully, he'll just get into foul trouble chasing Noah around and Cleveland can render him ineffective.
Prediction -
Cleveland in 4. Bust out the brooms.
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#2 Orlando - #7 Charlotte
Yup. Charlotte has a team in the playoffs. For the first time since the days of Grandmama and Zo. (At least I think so. I don't want to look it up. They have sucked for a while so I'll go with that. And yes, I know it is a different franchise.)
Orlando has been great of late and look to make a repeat run at the Finals.
Breakdown:
Key Stat -
Orlando takes more 3 point shots than any team in the league. Charlotte is 2nd best at defending the 3. They contest perimeter shots, but allow offenses to take them at will. Lewis, Carter and co. will have to knock them down to be successful in this series.
Key Matchup -
Dwight Howard vs the Free Throw Line
Larry Brown is a crafty coach. Look for him to exploit any possible avenue he can find of putting the Magic in a vulnerable position. That may very will include the hack-a-Howard method. Dwight Howard might break a rim with his bricks, so that could work wonders for Charlotte.
Prediction -
Orlando in 5.
Although this Charlotte team is feisty and all, I just don't think they have enough to get by Superman and the Magic. Stephen Jackson was a major piece in that 8 over 1 upset in Golden State, but this is not that team.
#3 Atlanta - #6 Milwaukee
The Hawks have risen to the upper tier in the East, surpassing a beat up and sometimes unmotivated Boston team. They look to prove that they are for real in these playoffs and start with a cushy Milwaukee match-up.
Breakdown:
Key Matchup -
Al Horford against Bucks big men not named Andrew Bogut.
With Bogut out due to injury, the Bucks will have to send a committee of defenders to keep Horford at bay and off the glass. It is a shame that Bogut can't go, because he was playing very well and would have been a problem for Atlanta.
Key Stat-
Josh Smith shoots 41% from the floor for his career in the playoffs.
He'll have to step that up closer, if not higher than his regular season average of 47% if he's going to be a key for Atlanta.
Prediction -
Atlanta in 5.
No Bogut, no dice for Milwaukee. Brandon Jennings should be exciting to watch though, as the youngster gets his first taste of the playoffs. Atlanta will prove too much for the Bucks too handle, and this one may even be a sweep.
#4 Boston - #5 Miami
Prediction-
Boston in 6. I'll let the guys handle this breakdown.
GO CELTS!
NBA Playoffs...takes an eternity, but it sure is fun! Enjoy, folks. I'll be back with more updates throughout.
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