Amalie Benjamin of the Globe had some interesting stats on Papelbon...
"After three consecutive seasons in which Papelbon has thrown between 15 and 15.6 pitches per inning, he's at 20.9 this year," Benjamin writes, adding, "Batters have swung at 85 of Papelbon's pitches this season, and missed 18 times for a 21.2 rate. That leaves him tied with Manny Delcarmen for 29th in baseball."
Ccook and I have been talking about this since last season ended. We all know Papelbon (much like Pedro) has an arm which seems to be hanging by a thread. What concerns me is how many fastballs he is throwing. This is a guy who used to rely on his splitter to get outs, but over the past two season he has used it less and less. Why? Well that is where my concern is. Is he trying to save his arm? Does it hurt when he throws it?
Here is my thinking...He has changed his delivery this season. Which could be the cause for the extra pitches, since it will take time to make all the adjustments. Still, he doesn't seem to have the same bite on his fastball, and eventually if he keeps using it hitters are going to catch up. My prediction is he ends up on the DL for 2-4 weeks, at some point in the next month or so. They will try to build up his arm strength, while the Sox rely more on guys like Okajima, Saito, and Delcarmen... hopefully I am wrong, but keep an eye on this.
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